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Even if these numbers were right, they still wouldn't be good for Republicans for another reason.
Apparently Party ID in Ohio is based on the last primary you voted in. If you've never voted there, you're identified as "non-affiliated." The 261,000 "swing voters" are not swing voters at all. If anything, they would represent new voters Obama has brought into the fold.
It could highly unlikely he'd get a great share folks aren't motivated to keep status qua and Obama isn't faring too well with 18-22 crowd. All I know is when I apply the EV and ED internals of Ohio polls to Early voting/2008 turnout ratio. I get a Romney win before accounting for undecideds.
Also oddly enough and this has been under reported IMHO is the Black vote in Ohio. Certainly it overwhelmingly goes for Obama but in '08 it went 97-2. In the OH internals it averages around 90.
A five pt shift among Blacks translates to 25K less Obama votes using '08 as a guide. I wonder if the gay marriage thing is having an impact ever so slightly?
No such thing is going to happen Dems are underperforming Early voting/ GOP overperforming so +D11 turnout model PPP, CNN and Quinn are showing is wrong. When you factor in the fact that Dems themselves are admitting they may even lose seats in the House you quickly realize there is no Dem wave.
We are staring at a +D2 electorate at best
As an analyst Nate is making an astonishing basic mistake, he is building his model from top line results with some minor tweaks made at the macro level. When building a model you build it from the bottom up and isolate variables that can greatly impact the outcome like turnout.
I'm beginning to worry for the psyche of the Left on Wednesday Obamas defeat is going to come as a brutal shock to them because of folks like Silver. I hope he is fired very dangerous what he is doing.
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,852 posts, read 10,467,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donna-501
Is RCP wrong also?
BTW, ever notice that a lot of these wingnut types frequently doing all the reckless boasting, also seem to have a "join date" here that just happens to coincide with the major election cycles... after which they simply drop out of sight, only to re-surface again under a new screen name? It's so nice and tidy, and saves ever having to answer for stuff like past lies or willful stupidity (or lost bets), posted before the election!
BTW, ever notice that a lot of these wingnut types frequently doing all the reckless boasting, also seem to have a "join date" here that just happens to coincide with the major election cycles... after which they simply drop out of sight, only to re-surface again under a new screen name? It's so nice and tidy, and saves ever having to answer for stuff like past lies or willful stupidity!
BTW, ever notice that a lot of these wingnut types frequently doing all the reckless boasting, also seem to have a "join date" here that just happens to coincide with the major election cycles... after which they simply drop out of sight, only to re-surface again under a new screen name? It's so nice and tidy, and saves ever having to answer for stuff like past lies or willful stupidity (or lost bets), posted before the election!
Yes, the only thing they forget is to change their writing style.
BTW, ever notice that a lot of these wingnut types frequently doing all the reckless boasting, also seem to have a "join date" here that just happens to coincide with the major election cycles... after which they simply drop out of sight, only to re-surface again under a new screen name? It's so nice and tidy, and saves ever having to answer for stuff like past lies or willful stupidity (or lost bets), posted before the election!
Nice try at deflection of the topic, but actually, YOU do not get to decide when someone joins or what they post.....got it! Good.
But so glad to see you have so much time on your hands and are so desperate you take the time to look up join dates. Kinda pathetic....
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