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Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stayinformed40
Keep trying to deflect, but you will face your sad truth tuesday. BO will not be re-elected and you entitlement happy, successful hating, will have to get a life.....and finally a JOB.
Talk is cheap... and if you wanna wager, I take PayPal!
Talk is cheap... and if you wanna wager, I take PayPal!
No thanks! I was raised better than that...your location says it all I was taught 'when you lay down with dogs, ya come up with fleas' so, you are now on my ignore button. Buh Bye.
Yup garbage in, garbage out. The problem is that these polls are weighting to the 2010 Census fair enough but that's breakout doesn't translate to the electorate. Case in point the last PPP poll of Wisconsin it is weighted 83% White. Fair since 2010 Census shows 83% White but look at the 2008 exit polls it shows Whites makeup 89% of electorate. Now if you apply PPPs margins to 2008 electorate you find Romney ekes out a win.
You may be right. The latest numbers seem to be ratifying in Obama's favor, with the exception of Romney's late(And surprising) surge in Pennsylvania.
My original position was(And this is easily verifiable as I've repeated it) that Democrats tend to skew younger and that younger people tend to vote less. Romney's goal in this was to discourage the base, which reduces voter turnout. He's been remarkably successful at this, so the final tally will reflect that. I suspect that Romney will win the electoral college without the popular vote because of the closeness of the election.
If voter turnout is similar to the last election, of course, I am completely wrong about the outcome. I suspect that I'm not, but it'll be interesting to see. Regardless, I think that the problems the US currently faces aren't easily addressed by the president no matter what: The escalating power of China, who has rushed to purchase US debt, the EU crisis, the aging populace, etc.
Whoever wins, I wish them luck and wisdom in governing.
Bush didn't exactly win with a landslide in 2004, but his quote the day after was, "I have earned political capital and I intend to spend it."
Quite frankly, I would help Obama won't try to "reach across the aisle" to accommodate Republicans in his second term. He tried that at the beginning of his presidency and the GOP wanted none of it.
Bush didn't exactly win with a landslide in 2004, but his quote the day after was, "I have earned political capital and I intend to spend it."
Quite frankly, I would help Obama won't try to "reach across the aisle" to accommodate Republicans in his second term. He tried that at the beginning of his presidency and the GOP wanted none of it.
You mean when a crammed Obamacare down our throat with no attempt at GOP support?
It could highly unlikely he'd get a great share folks aren't motivated to keep status qua and Obama isn't faring too well with 18-22 crowd. All I know is when I apply the EV and ED internals of Ohio polls to Early voting/2008 turnout ratio. I get a Romney win before accounting for undecideds.
Also oddly enough and this has been under reported IMHO is the Black vote in Ohio. Certainly it overwhelmingly goes for Obama but in '08 it went 97-2. In the OH internals it averages around 90.
A five pt shift among Blacks translates to 25K less Obama votes using '08 as a guide. I wonder if the gay marriage thing is having an impact ever so slightly?
Let's take another look at the Faux News data.
So we know that Party ID in Ohio is based on the last primary you voted in. If have not voted in a primary, you are identified as "non-affiliated." So far, Faux News has the count going this way:
Hmm...who are these 263,256 "swing voters" who have voted early??? These people are not "swing voters." They are voters who have not voted in a primary before (which excludes most Ohio Republicans since Ohio had a very competitive primary in which 1,189,530 people voted). They are far more likely to be newly registered younger and minority voters who trend Democratic.
So we have a total early vote count of 1,301,276. The number of Democratic voters (557,177) plus the number of "non-affiliated" voters (263,256) yields a total of 820,433 or 63% of early voters. That's actually consistent with Time Magazine's poll results, which say that 60 percent of respondents who had already voted did so for Obama.
Romney down to a 13.7% chance of winning today. His chances of winning have fallen steadily for almost 4 weeks. The nowcast is sitting at 12% so I'm thinking on election day he'll be down to 11% or 1 in 9.
These Obama haters (middle aged to elderly, white, males, with low IQ and/or poorly educated) will likely never see a GOP President again in their lifetimes. That's remarkable.
And therein lies the problem for Republicans. Never mind the campaigns' internal polls which adjust for presumptions of turnout. There are dozens and dozens of public polls, that despite the claims of the ignorant to the contrary, DO NOT make presumptions about party affiliation and use time tested models to find likely voters - most of which favor Republican voters. And almost all of them point to a victory for Obama. There are no polls, for example, in the RCP over the last week or so that have Romney winning Ohio. The only argument that Sanrene and others CAN make is that all those polls are statistically biased. It's quite a stretch to believe that, but one borne of desperation at this point.
Will all the pollsters be embarrassed? Will inferential statistics be turned on its head? Will Romney prove all of them wrong? It simply is not very likely.
Your comment on the likely voter polls and time tested models....
Reminds me of this quote.....
"Mr. Madison, what you just said is one of the most idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent reaponse were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone is this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
~~Mr. Oblaski. Billy Madison (1995)
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