Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm enjoying the conversation here about the Gallup poll, the back-and-forth, but I really like the way Obama's line in that Gallup poll looks like an EKG, five minutes after death. Total flatline at 45%.
I do agree with you that a lot of the polling this year leaves much to be desired.
I still get polled every couple of weeks, sometimes more often. Never give correct answers and with the Repub pollsters, I am waiting to find out their top offer. By the way, I've already voted. I imagine there are a lot of people doing the same. What will determine the outcome is whether the "Get out the Vote" efforts work better the the "Prevent the Vote" efforts.
I still get polled every couple of weeks, sometimes more often. Never give correct answers and with the Repub pollsters, I am waiting to find out their top offer. By the way, I've already voted. I imagine there are a lot of people doing the same. What will determine the outcome is whether the "Get out the Vote" efforts work better the the "Prevent the Vote" efforts.
Uhh...I would say there are a lot of Democratic "prevent the vote" efforts, Bob. And the Republicans have their own "get out the vote" efforts.
Not good there. Obama will need a bigger margin with women than that.
10 million more women voted than men the in 2008 election (out of 132 million total voters in 2008). This will help Obama if this many more women vote in 2012.
Certainly no fan of Marist polls but Romney is doing well among men and has closed the gap among women. Whether he closed it enough to make the gender gap positive for him is anyone's guess.
10 million more women voted than men the in 2008 election (out of 132 million total voters in 2008). This will help Obama if this many more women vote in 2012.
A lot of Black and White Women fell for Obama's hope and change spiel last time around. While Black women are firm Obama supporters he'll see some drop off among White women.
Certainly no fan of Marist polls but Romney is doing well among men and has closed the gap among women. Whether he closed it enough to make the gender gap positive for him is anyone's guess.
I don't think Marist does the NBC/WSJ national polls, only the state ones.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist state polls should be tossed in the trash, as they are basically hack polls. The NBC/WSJ national polls have, in the past, also been more favorable to Obama than most polls so maybe this is a good sign (but they have never been as different from most other polls as NBC/WSJ/Marist state polls).
When doing polls for McClatchy, Marist has actually been far more reasonable. I'm not sure if they do polling for anyone else.
A somewhat similar situation would be with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls. I trust Quinnipiac polls and even CBS/NYT polls but not CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls. They are always outliers, but Quinnipiac by itself is a good poll as is CBS/NYT.
I don't think Marist does the NBC/WSJ national polls, only the state ones.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist state polls should be tossed in the trash, as they are basically hack polls. The NBC/WSJ national polls have, in the past, also been more favorable to Obama than most polls so maybe this is a good sign (but they have never been as different from most other polls as NBC/WSJ/Marist state polls).
When doing polls for McClatchy, Marist has actually been far more reasonable. I'm not sure if they do polling for anyone else.
A somewhat similar situation would be with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls. I trust Quinnipiac polls and even CBS/NYT polls but not CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls. They are always outliers, but Quinnipiac by itself is a good poll as is CBS/NYT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA
Someone on twitter said that although the total sample is 1000 people, they only interview 120 per day. Which would generate some wild swings per day.
Folks across the political spectrum have dismissed the poll. The consensus is pretty clear Obama received little to no post 2nd debate bounce yet hear is IBD saying Obama received some massive post-debate bounce.
There polling method seems fine as most polls are near 1000 people...
Besides according to them, they claim to be the most accurate pollster out there:
To anyone who doesn't click, they were the top pollster (most accurate) in the 2004 and 2008 election. Most likely this comes from them using a more "modern" polling method versus some of the older traditional one that have trouble coping with cell phone usage.
EDIT: I don't think Obama is up +6 however. +2 to +3 at max is the most likely answer.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
