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CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac...the most biased poll ever! And you are soooo excited about it!!!!! It's hilarious! The Angus Reid poll has them tied in Ohio.
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 5 in VA last week. All the other recent VA polls other than PPP have Romney ahead. Hell, even NBC/WSJ/Marist had Romney up in VA.
You can resolve that by looking at all of the polls. Romney leads in none of them.
Maryland has a better chance to go Red than Oregon and you know Maryland ain't going red, so please move on with your fantasy world.
Lol MD is 30% Black and adjoins DC lots of white liberals to boot. What's the black population of Oregon? Sorry MD has no chance of going Red in presidential elections unless African Americans begin to split their vote.
As long as the population of Eugene and Portland go up, it will stay a Blue state, those two cities carry the election in that state and are just getting more blue each election.
Why are you getting do defensive, lol. Would be funny though if everyone thinks Obama has it wrapped up and goes to bed then lo and behold Oregon goes for Romney. All heck would break loose.
This being said - Obama is at 47.7% in the average of recent polls in the state. That is not a good position for an incumbent 15 days out. It is not, no matter how much you want to spin it. Even Nate Silver has admitted that undecideds are more likely to break for challengers than incumbents (though he's tried to explain it away).
Obama's approval remains quite low in the state as well, lower than incumbents usually need to win.
Romney's certainly better off playing for Virginia right now. It looks like he'll win Florida. It looks like he'll win North Carolina. Virginia and Colorado are the two states that are still highly competitive at this point in the race. Romney's better off conceding Ohio and going all out for Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.
Why are you getting do defensive, lol. Would be funny though if everyone thinks Obama has it wrapped up and goes to bed then lo and behold Oregon goes for Romney. All heck would break loose.
Romney won't win Oregon, unless there's some huge break towards him nationally. If he were to win nationally by more than 7-8, yes he would probably win Oregon (though urbanlife does have a point about the mail-in ballot thing). I simply don't expect him to win nationally by 7-8.
Though urbanlife's idea that states vote in isolation of each other is somewhat funny.
Romney's certainly better off playing for Virginia right now. It looks like he'll win Florida. It looks like he'll win North Carolina. Virginia and Colorado are the two states that are still highly competitive at this point in the race. Romney's better off conceding Ohio and going all out for Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.
Well, he would need either Iowa and Nevada or Wisconsin in that case.
Ohio is Romney's biggest problem, but it is far from safe for Obama.
OK, but it's only slightly more blue than NC was red in 2008 (compared to the nation...the state was R+7). More blue than MO was red in 2008, but less than MT or GA.
Again, in a 7-8-point national win for a Republican, yes the Republican could win Oregon. In a 10-point national win, they likely would.
No, a Republican candidate for president will not win in Oregon unless there is a massive shift back to their logging town days.
Oregon hasn't gone Red since 1984, and has gone more blue each election since 2000. Anyone who thinks Romney has a shot in Oregon is fooling themselves. Now if the state had a growing Republican party, then that would be a different story, but Oregon has a growing Democrat control.
The issue with North Carolina, you have a state that goes Red, but has a higher number of registered Democrats, so in theory the state should be going Blue, therefore you have campaigning going on there to court those registered Democrats.
Heck, scroll down this site to watch Oregon become more blue over the years, which is the direction that state is headed. The state hasn't even had a Republican Governor since 1986. And the senator Gordon Smith was actually very moderate and even he lost to the Democrats. Political party strength in Oregon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oregon, registered Democrats vote Democrat, and in Oregon that group has been growing while the Republicans have been shrinking.
All I am saying is it is pointless to think Oregon is in play for the Republicans and Mittens knows that which is why he isn't wasting his time in that state, and why should he?
This being said - Obama is at 47.7% in the average of recent polls in the state. That is not a good position for an incumbent 15 days out. It is not, no matter how much you want to spin it. Even Nate Silver has admitted that undecideds are more likely to break for challengers than incumbents (though he's tried to explain it away).
Obama's approval remains quite low in the state as well, lower than incumbents usually need to win.
You can try to spin it any way you want, but when you're down, you're down. RCP is not even including those old polls in its average anymore. There have only been five polls showing a lead for Rmoney (out of 36) and two of those were by Rasmussen and Gravis (talk about severe "house effect"). There's nothing "positive" in that trend for Rmoney.
Why are you getting do defensive, lol. Would be funny though if everyone thinks Obama has it wrapped up and goes to bed then lo and behold Oregon goes for Romney. All heck would break loose.
Not getting defensive, I just find it odd that you keep saying Oregon could go Red when I keep proving you wrong every time...just give it up, Oregon is not going Red no matter how hard you wish. Also Oregon doesn't need a black population to go Blue, it has Portland which is 84% and the big blue stronghold in the city.
So again, if you think Romney has a shot in Oregon, you are living in a fantasy world.
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