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I said 2 to 3 max Not 2 to 3 currently. I think it is close but I think Obama 100% has the electoral college advantage. Romney needs almost double the victories in swing states then compared to Obama.
I think Obama may have a slight electoral college advantage, but I don't think Romney needs double the victories in the swing states compared to Obama. It depends on what we're considering as "swing states." RCP averages the polls and (it appears) that they put states where one candidate is ahead by less than 5 into the "tossup" category. So if all the tossup states are what we consider "swing states," Romney actually needs to win less than Obama.
When we look at the no tossup map, things do look better for Obama but not great. If Ohio or even Wisconsin flip in this map, Romney would be at 270. Or if Iowa and Nevada flip.
If Obama has an electoral college advantage, it's all because he is narrowly ahead in Ohio. That's it. It looks like now there's pretty much an equal number of EV's that are safe for each candidate.
There are some things to be a bit skeptical about when looking at some of the Ohio polls (and, no, I'm not one of the conservatives who has cried about "skewed polls"), primarily having to do with early voting. I think Obama may be up by 1 in Ohio and that's about it. And he's at 48%. And undecideds are more likely to vote for challengers than incumbents. I am not saying I think Romney has the edge in Ohio, but I am saying that I think both sides should be very concerned about the state.
I think Obama may have a slight electoral college advantage, but I don't think Romney needs double the victories in the swing states compared to Obama. It depends on what we're considering as "swing states." RCP averages the polls and (it appears) that they put states where one candidate is ahead by less than 5 into the "tossup" category. So if all the tossup states are what we consider "swing states," Romney actually needs to win less than Obama.
When we look at the no tossup map, things do look better for Obama but not great. If Ohio or even Wisconsin flip in this map, Romney would be at 270. Or if Iowa and Nevada flip.
If Obama has an electoral college advantage, it's all because he is narrowly ahead in Ohio. That's it. It looks like now there's pretty much an equal number of states that are safe for each candidate.
Honestly I'm not sure Obama even has the EC advantage since I don't believe he is ahead in Ohio. While the race maybe tied I think momentum is on Romney side. The Dems are running a campaign like it's still the summer with their manufactured issues of Big Bird, Binders and Romnesia. Folks are hurting and the Dems are not addressing it in any meaningful way.
Nate Silver tweeted earlier that IBD/TIPP is prone to wild swings.
Once again, another cautious vibe from Nate. Not a good portend. It would appear IBD/TIPP just happened to be reasonably accurate the day of/before the election, otherwise often an outlier. Oh, well. Forget about IBD, then, for now.
Honestly I'm not sure Obama even has the EC advantage since I don't believe he is ahead in Ohio. While the race maybe tied I think momentum is on Romney side. The Dems are running a campaign like it's still the summer with their manufactured issues of Big Bird, Binders and Romnesia. Folks are hurting and the Dems are not addressing it in any meaningful way.
There's a cost to pay for that.
Yes, I edited/added to my post.
The other thing about Ohio - Ohio has historically been slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. I think *at the most* Ohio could be D+1 this year (when compared to the nation as a whole), but it will not be D+2 or more. In 2008, it was R+2.9.
Something I should mention is that a lot of the Democratic-leaning pollsters have been polling the swing states more than nationally and a lot of the Republican-leaning pollsters have been polling nationally more than in the swing states.
Honestly I'm not sure Obama even has the EC advantage since I don't believe he is ahead in Ohio. While the race maybe tied I think momentum is on Romney side. The Dems are running a campaign like it's still the summer with their manufactured issues of Big Bird, Binders and Romnesia. Folks are hurting and the Dems are not addressing it in any meaningful way.
There's a cost to pay for that.
I don't agree with you on much, but I do however agree with you on this one. I am not into the Romnesia thing..
This country has fallen off the sanity cliff if these POS are allowed to pull the strings again.
Yabut, Romney lies so good, he's infected half the country with Romnesia.
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Not 2 to 3 currently. I think it is close but I think Obama 100% has the electoral college advantage. Romney needs almost double the victories in swing states then compared to Obama.
I am not into the Romnesia thing..
