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Old 10-23-2012, 10:51 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,340,545 times
Reputation: 7627

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
Just when libs think their firewall will hold it springs a hole on the most unlikeliest of places.
LOL

I'd hardly call +5 for Obama a "hole" - especially considering that a poll showed him +4 two weeks ago.

The facts is it's just a single poll - and polls have occasionally shown him as low as +4 and +5 over the last year while others have shown him as high as +15 (and another +10 just a week ago). They simply tend to bounce around a bit - but ALWAYS with Obama in the lead. If you can show a TREND in MN where Obama's lead is collapsing, then MAYBE that will mean something (assuming the trend shows a rapid falloff in the state - there are just 2 weeks or so to go)

Romney HAS made some big gains in many of the "toss-up" states - and that's to his credit, but now it's down to the nitty-gritty and that could prove a LOT tougher, and UNLESS he can succeed in that, he loses. It's as simple as that.

Ken

 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Are polls in Nevada accounting for Gary Johnson? The die in the wool libertarians there may make a difference to cause Rmoney to win.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:17 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,340,545 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
Are polls in Nevada accounting for Gary Johnson? The die in the wool libertarians there may make a difference to cause Rmoney to win.
Do you REALLY think that Johnson will draw more voters from Obama than he will from Romney?
Really?



LOL

If ANYTHING Johnson being added into the mix will BOOST Obama's advantage there.

Ken
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:18 AM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,837,946 times
Reputation: 1512
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Do you REALLY think that Johnson will draw more voters from Obama than he will from Romney?
Really?



LOL

If ANYTHING Johnson being added into the mix will BOOST Obama's advantage there.

Ken
i agree
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:20 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,959,399 times
Reputation: 7458
Quote:
Originally Posted by Umbria View Post
Ignorance is when someone feels a need to attack an entire state to make a point - try to use some degree of intelligence. Are my feelings hurt - nope.

But I agree, enough people will use common sense and keep Obama as president.
The entire state has earned its reputation for ignorance and poor decision making in the political arena. Minnesota is a lost cause.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:22 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,959,399 times
Reputation: 7458
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08 View Post
no, rasmussen has a 3.5 point republican bias. silver broke down poll bias in a 2010 article.
Silver's opinion is usually worthless, but it's particularly worthless if you're trying to apply a 2010 article to Rasmussen's polls today.

Look at the internals of the 2012 polls done by Rasmussen. I'm right about the voter turnout models he uses. Silver may have been right about the models used in 2010, but even if he was those aren't the models Rasmussen uses now.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,427,122 times
Reputation: 6462
Supposedly a big Romney Gallup day was supposed to roll off for Mitt in today's tracker, this from Sean Trende of RCP. Well today's Gallup is plus 6 no change from yesterday.

Carry on libs.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:24 AM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,427,122 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
Silver's opinion is usually worthless, but it's particularly worthless if you're trying to apply a 2010 article to Rasmussen's polls today.

Look at the internals of the 2012 polls done by Rasmussen. I'm right about the voter turnout models he uses. Silver may have been right about the models used in 2010, but even if he was those aren't the models Rasmussen uses now.
Which brings me to the recent Minnesota poll which has plus D lean and Romney is beating Obama among Independents by 17. This is from Battleground Watch.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:30 AM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,837,946 times
Reputation: 1512
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
Supposedly a big Romney Gallup day was supposed to roll off for Mitt in today's tracker, this from Sean Trende of RCP. Well today's Gallup is plus 6 no change from yesterday.

Carry on libs.
we came to an agreement among posters in this thread not to post national tracker polls. there were 7 published yesterday, 4 with romney leading, 3 with obama leading.

we agreed state polls are more important.

i know your nervous right now, but adhere to the agreement that we all made. if you missed it, look back in hte prior thread.

state polls from here on out.
 
Old 10-23-2012, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Do you REALLY think that Johnson will draw more voters from Obama than he will from Romney?
Really?



LOL

If ANYTHING Johnson being added into the mix will BOOST Obama's advantage there.

Ken
It's already been reported that Johnson would hurt Obama in Nevada more than Rmoney. Social libertarian reign supreme there and they have the need to free the weed.

http://www.politico.com/politico44/2...ma-138084.html
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