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Plenty to see in the latest #s. Clark County remains a really tough nut to crack for the GOP but there is plenty of good news once we dig into the numbers. On Day 4 of early voting Democrats cast 15,310 ballots while Republicans cast 9911 ballots. This was a 2% day-over-day (dod) increase for the Democrats and a -3% dod decline for the Republicans. Basically, Democrats held serve on Day 4 marginally reversing the compression between the two parties proportional representation of the overall early vote total. Despite the one-day flattening of the trend, Republicans remain far motivated and active in early voting nearly doubling their 2008 output while Democrats are failing to even meet their 2008 levels beyond the first day pop.
Election over election comparison at the same point in 2008:
Democrats overall lead today is 23,490
Democrats lead in 2008 was 32,380
Higher mathematics says that is a 8890 reduction
Comparison versus same party performance:
Versus 2008 Democrats have 978 fewer ballots cast overall
Versus 2008 Republicans have 7912 more ballots cast overall
Democrats are averaging 244.5 fewer ballots cast every day
Republicans are averaging 1978 more ballots cast every day
At those rates, Democrats early vote advantage would shrink from 86.5k in 2008 to 55.5k by election day
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