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Agreed, I'm wondering the same thing. How are they coming up with those figures? Even if I give Romney the states of WI, FL, VA & NC, it's still 271-267 for the Pres.
North Carolina will have Romney winning by a wide margin. I'd say around 8 points.
First of all, Karl Rove's predictions didn't count toss up states. Secondly, Rove has an interest in showing more EC votes for Obama so as to encourage more simpleton's to the polls come election day.
I disagree that if you believe Obama will lose that one is out of touch with reality. Perhaps it means we're in touch with reality--that is the reality that we experience everyday. Allow me to explain here.
I live in a solid red state--Louisiana. Even though the city is generally liberal, I encounter a large number of people who either work in Big Oil or are the wives of Big Oil men and their concubines (lawyers). Moreover, I'm charged with "educating" their worthless, spoiled children who love Republicans and conservatives despite the fact that they oftentimes fail to describe one aspect of a conservative position. For example, in class one day, I asked my college sophomores, juniors, and seniors to tell me one tenet of conservatism and one tenet of liberalism. The class remained silent. Then I said tell me one thing that conservatives generally believe in--the answer I got was "liberals are bad!" I said, "umkay..." and asked why conservatives believe that liberals are bad and another student said, "because they're liberals." I asked rhetorically if I were in a Mike Judge movie about a future dystopia. No one answered nor did they laugh.
I let the class remain silent while hoping somebody would tell me one tenet of conservatism. Not one student could tell me. Somebody in the rear of the class said, "We don't know, are you going to tell us?" I then asked why it was that in one of the most conservative states in the country that not one student out of the 38 in class that day could explain to me what the conservatives believe in (or what the liberals believe in for that matter). All of this silence despite their Alpha Omicron Pi buttons for Romney.
Everywhere I go I see Romney/Ryan stickers, signs, activists. I see my construction worker neighbors every evening bitching about Obama and how he ruined the economy. I see and hear local celebrities endorsing Romney/Ryan. I hear talk radio of the local variety espousing the finer points of how a millionaire president is going to put a Hummer in your driveway. Why would I think that Obama could win when I'm surrounded by conservatives?
I guess I've been too long winded here. My point is is this: if one is around conservatives all day long every day, then you tend to believe that the rest of the country is too as conservative as those whom you routinely encounter. Yes, it's fallacious, I know, but it's not "out of touch with reality." It's fallacious in the sense that it's a generalization--most of my fellow New Orleanians (greater NOLa) will vote for Romney so therefore Romney wins. But it reflects an empirical element in that it is what I sense everyday and have been sensing since Obama's inauguration. It's like an oar in water on a sunny day--it empirically looks bent, but it's not. It's an illusion, but it's not out of touch with reality. Seeing is believing.
Now, for the sake of full disclosure, I hope that Obama wipes the floor with Romney. The fact that this election is this close is representative of a failure on the part of the Obama reelection committee and their strategy in this election. Given what investment bankers have done to the political process and the economy, there's no way a millionaire investment banker should be this close to somebody who at least rhetorically hopes to reform the economy.
Lastly, even if Obama wins, the win won't amount to a hill of beans unless the Democrats take the House and 60 seats in the Senate. If the former occurs but not the latter, then it truly is four more years of bickering, stalling, and wasting taxpayers money and time because Obama will not be able to govern and his policies will be DOA in Congress.
You're teaching young people. You should know that age group isn't political, nor are they very educated on the issues. It is only when someone hits their mid-20s or so that they become more politically minded and educated on the issues. If I were to take your class, granted I've already gone through college and am much older, I would rip your arguments to shreds and make you look like a simpleton in front of your class. These kids don't have the ability to do so because they're young, and because they've been led to believe that they just have to accept liberal nonsense spewing from the mouths of their professors. Many don't even care. Why do you think that the college-age vote turnout is so low?
Foxnews has a page where you can make your state by state prediction on the 2012 Presidential Race. Just drag and drop the state to the column of who you think will get the electoral votes. (No toss ups allowed)
All individual results are accepted.
That is the point of taking it and posting.
To see where each, in their own degree of expertise and understanding of each states makeup and polling data lays.
As long as they don't give a big fat zero to one candidate or the other, the world is just fine.
What if some of the blue states...actually go red? What happens to the dynamic then? I would not bet on California being blue...who knows.
There is NO way that California is going Red anytime soon. The closest Romney has been to Obama in any poll was down 10 points. Most have been 15+.
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But...I have issues with the Electoral college system..it is antiquated and needs to go...same as slavery. Just cause the founding Fathers said it was correct...don't make it so...
The whole system is out-of-whack. When you have a country so sharply divided, forcing them to all have the same set of rules and trying to get them to agree with such polar opposite views is just stupid.
Why should Californians be overruled in the election by people in Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alabama and other states like that?
The electoral college is not spectacular, but it does keep cities from completely deciding the election. Getting rid of the electoral college would guarantee true Socialist policies as soon as a white Socialist ran.
However, if we had just a popular vote matter, we would have had no President Kennedy (at least not John) and we would have had President Gore. This year Romney will likely win the popular vote but lose the electoral college and RWers will cry and claim that it's a conspiracy and that it's never happened in the history of mankind. Those of us who are Libertarians will just shake our heads in disappointment that our candidates never even get 1% of the electoral votes because the system is designed to subjugate third parties.
The whole system is out-of-whack. When you have a country so sharply divided, forcing them to all have the same set of rules and trying to get them to agree with such polar opposite views is just stupid.
Why should Californians be overruled in the election by people in Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alabama and other states like that?
The electoral college is not spectacular, but it does keep cities from completely deciding the election. Getting rid of the electoral college would guarantee true Socialist policies as soon as a white Socialist ran.
However, if we had just a popular vote matter, we would have had no President Kennedy (at least not John) and we would have had President Gore. This year Romney will likely win the popular vote but lose the electoral college and RWers will cry and claim that it's a conspiracy and that it's never happened in the history of mankind. Those of us who are Libertarians will just shake our heads in disappointment that our candidates never even get 1% of the electoral votes because the system is designed to subjugate third parties.
Historically cities have been some of the most protective areas of capitalism, I seriously doubt you could ever get New York or LA to go along with socialism since there are so many very wealthy and high end people there. If real socialism is going to get to America it is going to be tied to Christianity and swept in by Alabama, Oklahoma, and North Dakota. Just like economic populism was in the 19th century.
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