Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Thats right, but polls showing a 2 point lead or higher at 10 days have a 90% chance of going for the guy with the lead. Polls with a 1% lead or higher with less then 10 days have the same 90% chance. And its 9 days out.
Lets not forget that there are 11 other polls, out of 15 in Ohio showing Obama with a lead of 3 to 5 points.
Now Romney could win, the polls could be very wrong, but with an 11 to 4 polls showing Obama with a lead, they would be very, very wrong. Its not likely that high of an amount of polls will be wrong.
Odds are, Obama will take Ohio. Odds are broken every day though, so we'll see.
I am not argueing with you on that, you are right about the 2 point lead (many of the other polls you are referring to are so slanted they mean nothing) my point in posting was trying to tell DJ he needs to check his facts before posting...
I am not argueing with you on that, you are right about the 2 point lead (many of the other polls you are referring to are so slanted they mean nothing) my point in posting was trying to tell DJ he needs to check his facts before posting...
Ohio will be close, but by the polling average, Obama will eek out a win. And Obama has a 60/40 majority of the early vote there. Romney comes out 51/49 in the 11/6 vote, then Obama is going to win that state.
Ohio will be close, but by the polling average, Obama will eek out a win. And Obama has a 60/40 majority of the early vote there. Romney comes out 51/49 in the 11/6 vote, then Obama is going to win that state.
The polls may not reflect the partisan split of the electorate so who knows what's next.
This poll is old. It was conducted Oct 18-23 with only one day of the polling being after the third debate. It was just late in being published which is why we are only hearing about it now.
Three more Ohio polls have come out which were conducted Oct 23-25, all being after the third debate, those polls have Obama up +2, +2, and +4.
And Obama has a 60/40 majority of the early vote there.
You don't know that. In '08 I was a Republican and I voted for the Democrat. Last year in our governor's race I voted for the Democrat. There is NO guarantee that people will vote along party line, just a tendency.
Just wondering, have there been states in the last few elections(2004, 2008) that were predicting one candidate would take the state, only for the other candidate to end up taking it? Was Obama predicted to take Florida and North Carolina in 2008 or did that come as a surprise to people?
As of this morning (10/29) Rasmussen reports that Romney now leads Obama in Ohio 50% to 48%.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
