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I don't think it's any surprise that gay rights in general, and gay marriage in particular, are the fastest-changing political issue within memory. After all, after 150 years we still have people pining for slavery, we have Ann Coulter arguing against letting women vote, and abortion is probably more divisive than it was at the time of Roe v. Wade.
In the area of gay rights, however, President Obama paid absolutely no price for supporting DADT repeal, same-sex marriage, and the overturning of DOMA. If anything, those positions helped him. Every potential Democratic candidate in 2016 will be in favor of gay rights, including marriage equality, and even a conservative like Rob Portman has just come out in support of marriage equality.
My question is this: given the split between the Republican base today and the trend for the majority of American voters, will the 2016 Republican presidential candidate oppose marriage equality, support DOMA, or call for a return to DADT?
I don't think it's any surprise that gay rights in general, and gay marriage in particular, are the fastest-changing political issue within memory. After all, after 150 years we still have people pining for slavery, we have Ann Coulter arguing against letting women vote, and abortion is probably more divisive than it was at the time of Roe v. Wade.
In the area of gay rights, however, President Obama paid absolutely no price for supporting DADT repeal, same-sex marriage, and the overturning of DOMA. If anything, those positions helped him. Every potential Democratic candidate in 2016 will be in favor of gay rights, including marriage equality, and even a conservative like Rob Portman has just come out in support of marriage equality.
My question is this: given the split between the Republican base today and the trend for the majority of American voters, will the 2016 Republican presidential candidate oppose marriage equality, support DOMA, or call for a return to DADT?
It is way too soon to even guess at what the candidate will do, but he/she many very well differ from the acutally platform, many times this is the case. Heck, most of the time no one really cares what the platform stands for, if we even know. This works on both sides. The only people who pay attention are on the opposite side. They like to use it as bait to attack...
I don't think anyone will try to overturn DADT. As for what you want to call Marriage equality, I am guessing the candidate will want it to be a states right issue...
My question is this: given the split between the Republican base today and the trend for the majority of American voters, will the 2016 Republican presidential candidate oppose marriage equality,
Yes. But not too loudly. Mostly, they'll just wish the issue would go away, but they'll know they have to appease the base by officially opposing it.
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support DOMA,
DOMA will be 3 years in history's dustbin at that point (it'll be gone this summer). The anti-SSM rhetoric at the Republican nominee level will probably be that it is a state issue, so DOMA (again, long gone by then) will simply be ignored.
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or call for a return to DADT?
No. DADT will be an even bigger relic by 2016 than DOMA.
Yes. But not too loudly. Mostly, they'll just wish the issue would go away, but they'll know they have to appease the base by officially opposing it.
DOMA will be 3 years in history's dustbin at that point (it'll be gone this summer). The anti-SSM rhetoric at the Republican nominee level will probably be that it is a state issue, so DOMA (again, long gone by then) will simply be ignored.
No. DADT will be an even bigger relic by 2016 than DOMA.
My guess?You are about as wrong as you can be about all this. The Republican candidate will probably surprise you. This doesn't mean the platform, but the candidates realize they have to do some re-considering without selling the party out...I think you will see candidates that will take a political stand and a personal one, saying something like: personally I do not accpet DOMA or DADT, but I do not intend to push my views down anyone's throat...
Conservatives can't win on homophobia any longer. Calling for a return to DADT will be political suicide. There are 40 million Millennials in this country who vote, and they vote pro-gay first and foremost. I would even take it a step further and say no candidate can win a national office without supporting same sex marriage.
Democrats will win in a landslide in 2016. Republicans may have a shot again in 2020 or 2024. I think the GOP-base is still too socially conservative to let a candidate who's pro-gay enough to win nationally through the primary.
1. The GOP continues to ignore the public and pursue its "more money for millionaires and less for everyone else" line along with stoking the culture wars. Then they take another beating at the polls in Nov 2016.
2. The GOP comes to its senses, realizes that economic progress depends on a thriving middle class and that the vast majority of adults despise the control-freaks who want to install a theocratic state that outlaws abortion and forces creationism in the public schools. Then the 2016 election becomes a competitive race.
If a Republican wins the cons will say it was a landslide. If a Democrat wins they'll say it was a close race and also that it was stolen
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Predictions for 2016?
