Prediction: Hillary Doesn't Run In 2016 If Republicans Take the Senate Majority in 2014 (illegal, democrat)
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Don't be too sure of that. He's not actually very well liked here. He only won in 2010 because the Republicans picked Angle instead of Lowden as their nominee, and while I respect Angle and what she stands for, she didn't have much chance of winning. Even with all the mud that the Democrats drug her through, it was still a reasonably close election, which should tell you something.
I personally don't think Reid is going to run again, but he DOES love his power, so he might. I would think that someone his age (the 2016 election is about a month before his 77th birthday) would want to retire and spend their remaining years with family, but he might just be so thirsty for power that he'll push his family aside and spend his last years playing politics. I certainly wouldn't put it past him.
Anyway, I just thought I'd give you a heads up from someone who actually lives in the state he represents (poorly), and pays attention to what the people around here think of him.
I would be very surprised if Reid wins again, if he runs. I think some people think more with the hearts than their heads. He was lucky to have pulled it out in 2010.
I would be very surprised if Reid wins again, if he runs. I think some people think more with the hearts than their heads. He was lucky to have pulled it out in 2010.
2010 was a very Republican year and the GOP wasn't able to knock that of (granted that had quite a it to do with Angle). However, 2016 is a Presidential year, the greater turnout in a Presidential year would help Reid. Also the GOP has so much to defend in 2016 that the party resources in the Senate will be more on defense than offense.
2010 was a very Republican year and the GOP wasn't able to knock that of (granted that had quite a it to do with Angle). However, 2016 is a Presidential year, the greater turnout in a Presidential year would help Reid. Also the GOP has so much to defend in 2016 that the party resources in the Senate will be more on defense than offense.
The other factor about Reid's chances - who would be his likely opponent?
Reid's soft-spoken persona is very deceptive if you don't know him. He's actually very shrewd, and has his fingers all over Nevada state politics, knows everything and everybody. He'll defuse or sideline potential political opponents by appointing them to other offices or convincing them to retire or get into private sector. He's never been very popular, but he somehow finds a way to win.
I've been thinking about this. I think the Democrats stand a better chance of retaining the Senate if they run other Democrats against their own incumbents in the Democrat primaries. It would have to be Democrats not in the House and not working in the Obama administration. They would have to be able to say, they never supported or voted for Obamacare.
Is Clinton supporting any Democrat primary challengers?
2010 was a very Republican year and the GOP wasn't able to knock that of (granted that had quite a it to do with Angle). However, 2016 is a Presidential year, the greater turnout in a Presidential year would help Reid. Also the GOP has so much to defend in 2016 that the party resources in the Senate will be more on defense than offense.
I realize that, but I also know, as most of us do, 2010 win for him should never have happened. As for offense versus defense, this is going to be the case on both sides. Whether Reid wins or not, will have more to do with who the candidates are for President and how that race plays out. Everyone is so sure Hillary is unbeatable and will run: I am not convinced of either at this point.
You forget that in 2016 1/3rd of the Senate is up again (2010 GOPers for one) and the entire South is up, and if anyone does not think she has huge coat tails, then they are a political fool. If 2016 election day rolls up and she is the victor over the Republican candidate, then expect many coat tail votes to help her out in Congress (see 2008).
Just a fact of presidential elections, especially possibly popular ones (and Hillary is popular with the Democrats and some Independents).
I realize that, but I also know, as most of us do, 2010 win for him should never have happened. As for offense versus defense, this is going to be the case on both sides. Whether Reid wins or not, will have more to do with who the candidates are for President and how that race plays out. Everyone is so sure Hillary is unbeatable and will run: I am not convinced of either at this point.
It is 24-10. It isn't like the Republicans are defending only a few more seats, it is more than double the amount of seats, many of them in swing states.
The logic is simple: Hillary Clinton is an opportunist. She badly wants to break the male-only Presidential "glass ceiling," but only if she can come away with a legacy to match it. Given Republicans abject Hatred of All Things Clinton,â„¢ I predict that Hillary Clinton will view a GOP Senate and House Majority a threat to her very ambition to actually get anything done as the first female President. The chances that Democrats retake one or both of the chambers in 2016 would be so slim, that a 2014 GOP steamroll would/will force her to retire politically instead of running for President in 2016.
No doubt about it, she's waiting on the 2014 midterms to make a decision.
You could be right, but it's just as likely to be wishful thinking. If the GOP sweeps Congress and starts sending Obama legislation that he feels compelled to veto, and Hillary continues to outpoll other possible Democrat candidates, she'll feel tremendous pressure to run because she'll be see by Democrats as the best chance to prevent a total right wing takeover of the federal government.
However, the GOP has a stranglehold on the House for at least a decade by most accounts. If the GOP takes the Senate in 2014, do you think Democrats could retake it in 2016? Would Hillary accept a divided government with the same negative results as the Barack Obama presidency? I don't think she would be inclined to take that risk.
Hillary is way too narcissistic to think she could not overcome the "vast right-wing conspiracy". Plus Slick Willey is just dying to get back into the WH, so much so that he campaigned for Obama even though he & Hillary cannot stand him.
These two more than most others are political opportunists, and most everything they do is with cold calculation. I would be surprised if she didn't run for the reason you think.
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