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Old 02-08-2014, 06:35 PM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,836,149 times
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I can concede that. Earlier today I was revisiting the 2012 election because I'm interested in electoral history and am convinced that Romney would've won if there was no Hurricane Sandy. I agreed with O'reillys talking points the day after the election when he said that the team with the mo'(momentum) will win in the end. Obama did not do enough to stifle Romneys momentum in the 3rd debate and if that treadline continued Romney would have won.

How Obama reacted to Sandy was viewed very favorably by the voters as evidenced in the exit polls, and it was very important to the voters in the exit poll. Christie also embracing him gave more credibility to Obama among the independents who ended up winning him the election.

Just interesting looking back at it and seeing how if certain things didn't take place, things would be much different. Who knows for better or worse, but I'm convinced Obama would have lost if not for Hurricane Sandy.
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Old 02-08-2014, 06:43 PM
 
2,687 posts, read 2,185,556 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08 View Post
I can concede that. Earlier today I was revisiting the 2012 election because I'm interested in electoral history and am convinced that Romney would've won if there was no Hurricane Sandy. I agreed with O'reillys talking points the day after the election when he said that the team with the mo'(momentum) will win in the end. Obama did not do enough to stifle Romneys momentum in the 3rd debate and if that treadline continued Romney would have won.

How Obama reacted to Sandy was viewed very favorably by the voters as evidenced in the exit polls, and it was very important to the voters in the exit poll. Christie also embracing him gave more credibility to Obama among the independents who ended up winning him the election.

Just interesting looking back at it and seeing how if certain things didn't take place, things would be much different. Who knows for better or worse, but I'm convinced Obama would have lost if not for Hurricane Sandy.
lol

Romney had no chance. Sandy or no Sandy.

GOP revisionist history. It's never their fault they lose, is it?
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:14 PM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,533,837 times
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Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
lol

Romney had no chance. Sandy or no Sandy.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:17 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,461,656 times
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Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
lol

Romney had no chance. Sandy or no Sandy.

GOP revisionist history. It's never their fault they lose, is it?
Well, I do think Sandy helped Obama, but I don't think Romney would gave won without Sandy. However, Romney did certainly have a chance. See the polling following the first debate. However, Romney's slip in the polls seemed to start before Sandy.

Even with Sandy, Romney didn't exactly lose by a huge margin, certainly not huge enough to suggest he never had a chance at all.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:19 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,970,287 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Votre_Chef View Post
lol

Romney had no chance. Sandy or no Sandy.
, all but the 2 reddest states that voted Obama in 2008 did so in 2012. 19 blue states since 1988 start the Dems at the GOP 5 yard line. Add in Va & NM, blue now long-term ..demographics.Dems start around 260..before adding in any swing states.

How does starting opponents off at your own 5 yard line work out for NFL teams who do that?
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:20 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,461,656 times
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Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
, all but the 2 reddest states that voted Obama in 2008 did so in 2012. 19 blue states since 1988 start the Dems at the GOP 5 yard line. How does that work out for NFL teams who do that?
You used to be a Republican or at least Republican-leaning - now you are this hardcore anti-Republican. Mind if I ask why?
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:22 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,970,287 times
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Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Well, I do think Sandy helped Obama, but I don't think Romney would gave won without Sandy. However, Romney did certainly have a chance. See the polling following the first debate. However, Romney's slip in the polls seemed to start before Sandy.

Even with Sandy, Romney didn't exactly lose by a huge margin, certainly not huge enough to suggest he never had a chance at all.
126 electoral vote losses are shellackings. He had NO shot.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,461,656 times
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Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
126 electoral vote losses are shellackings. He had NO shot.
Shifting the popular vote margin by just a few percentage points = a fairly massive electoral vote shift.

Not a fair point.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:26 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia
3,410 posts, read 4,467,648 times
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Anyone who would actually care about the reaction to Sandy was probably clueless to what Obama was up to as they didn't have power and NJ and NY were going blue regardless.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:26 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,970,287 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
You used to be a Republican or at least Republican-leaning - now you are this hardcore anti-Republican. Mind if I ask why?
I haven't changed, but I'm simply doing the math, not relying on dogma (as the TP is). The GOP must appeal to several of the 19 states blue since 1988, as they contain 61 more electoral votes than the 21 states red since 1988.

Va & NM are gone now; NOVA is going to keep growing widening Va spread, NM Latino vote makes it blue now. That pushes Dems past 260.

So the path to POTUS for the GOP is clear, and dependent on winning a few states in a combination of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and West Coast.

Otherwise, they are not really competing for the WH.
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