Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Yes. This is not simply true for Walker but for any GOP nominee. Wisconsin is unlikely to be the tipping point state - ie, the one that puts the Republican nominee at or beyond 270 votes in the Electoral College.
First, the GOP nominee needs to win the 22 states that all GOP nominees have won since 2000. This totals 180 Electoral College votes.
The next two likely states to fall into the red column are IN (11 EC votes) and NC (15 EC votes) - Obama won both of these states in 2008 but Romney flipped them in 2012. IN is likely to stay in the Republican column, and any competitive GOP nominee should take NC in 2016. That's 206 votes in the Electoral College.
Next up are the two big and vital swing states, OH (18 EC votes) and FL (29 EC votes). Though Obama won each of these states twice, he did so narrowly and by margins somewhat less than his national margin. A strong GOP nominee can possibly take these states. That brings the red tally to 253 Electoral College votes.
Now, it gets hard finding those next 17 EC votes. There's VA (13 EC votes) , which Obama won twice - in 2008 by about 1% less than his national margin, and in 2012 by a percentage almost exactly mirroring that of his popular vote. With liberal NoVA disproportionately growing, VA is slowly slipping away from the GOP, but it will remain within the grasp of a very strong nominee in 2016, though it will be difficult against Clinton - it really hurts that longtime Clinton ally Terry McAuliffe is and will be governor there in 2016. Anyway, that bumps the tally up to 266 votes in the Electoral College. Anyway, to continue the discussion we'll assume that a Republican nominee takes VA.
Where to get those last four votes?
The obvious tipping point states are one of the following:
CO (9 EC votes)
IA (6 EC votes)
NV (6 EC votes)
NH (4 EC votes)
Colorado
Obama won CO by 5.4% in 2012. The fact that the Hispanic population is the fastest-growing segment of Colorado's population, and the increasing alignments of Hispanic voters and Democratic candidates, makes CO a very tough pickup for the GOP. Plausible, yes. But very difficult.
Iowa
This is probably the GOP's best (albeit not exactly good) bet to hit the magical threshold of 270 Electoral College votes. Obama won it by 'only' 5.8% in 2012, the GOP won it (albeit barely, by less than 7/10ths of a percent) as recently as 2004, and its electorate is one of the most elastic (ie, has a lot of swing voters) in the country. Still, the fact that the GOP barely won in during their best Presidential showing of the last quarter century indicates the difficulty herein.
Nevada
The hope here is slim. President Obama carried the state by 6.8%, the Hispanic population is at the fore of the state's population boom, and the 2016 Republican nominee will lack Romney's religious advantage in the state (NV is the fourth-most Mormon state in the country).
New Hampshire
The good news is that a Republican nominee carried NH (narrowly) as recently as 2000 and that the NH electorate is the second-most elastic in the nation. The bad news is the President Obama won it by 5.6% in 2012 against a GOP nominee from Massachusetts; even the hapless John Kerry managed to win NH against an incumbent President who had won the state four years earlier.
So, there you have it. The Republican path to 270 does not include Wisconsin, though a reasonable argument could be made that after the 31 state discussed above, WI is the next-likeliest to fall into the GOP's column. Others might make arguments that Pennsylvania would fall in line before Wisconsin.
Oh, and as for Scott Walker? He's a longshot to be the Republican nominee in 2016. Study your history, people.
Great post. The race will be decided without Wisconsin. It's too far from the tipping point to be that critical. If the GOP carries it, you're looking at the biggest Republican win since 1988.
I've seen numerous posts on this forum taking it for granted that if the Republicans win Florida and Ohio, they're a cinch to win, when in reality, they need those states, plus holding NC, just to have a chance to win. Virginia, Colorado,
Iowa and Nevada are likely to be states that decide the race, unless the GOP can finally break through the Blue Wall and take Pennsylvania, which I think is improbable against Hillary. If they take NC, FL, OH and add Virginia, then a win in any of Colorado, Iowa or Nevada would put them over the top. Iowa looks to be the best bet, with Nevada the longest shot. Unless the 2016 Republican nominee can turn the Hispanic vote back to 2004 numbers or better, I think Nevada is likely gone as is New Mexico. The one state I omitted that I probably should mention is New Hampshire. It's the most conservative state in New England, but it's still New England. If my memory serves me correctly, it last went Republican in 2000 by about 7,000 votes; Obama carried NH in 2012 by 40,000. That might not seem like a big margin, but in the context of New Hampshire, it actually is. Like Wisconsin, NH probably would go Republican at some point beyond the tipping point.
I'll be watching to see, beyond who wins or loses, how these state's will fall.
1. Will the Blue Wall hold for a 7th time in a row?
2. Will Virginia take the next step in 2016 and trend more Democratic than the national average?
3. Will the Southwestern states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico stay in the Democratic column, or can an Hispanic centric Republican like Rubio or Bush turn them around?
4. Will a Bush or a Rubio be able to hold Florida?
If you can take off your partisan blinders and just enjoy the war gaming possibilities, presidential elections are always fascinating.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-23-2015 at 11:03 AM..
Great post. The race will be decided without Wisconsin. It's too far from the tipping point to be that critical. If the GOP carries it, you're looking at the biggest Republican win since 1988.
I've seen numerous posts on this forum taking it for granted that if the Republicans win Florida and Ohio, they're a cinch to win, when in reality, they need those states, plus holding NC, just to have a chance to win. Virginia, Colorado,
Iowa and Nevada are likely to be states that decide the race, unless the GOP can finally break through the Blue Wall and take Pennsylvania, which I think is improbable against Hillary. If they take NC, FL, OH and add Virginia, then a win in any of Colorado, Iowa or Nevada would put them over the top. Iowa looks to be the best bet, with Nevada the longest shot. Unless the 2016 Republican nominee can turn the Hispanic vote back to 2004 numbers or better, I think Nevada is likely gone as is New Mexico. The one state I omitted that I probably should mention is New Hampshire. It's the most conservative state in New England, but it's still New England. If my memory serves me correctly, it last went Republican in 2000 by about 7,000 votes; Obama carried NH in 2012 by 40,000. That might not seem like a big margin, but in the context of New Hampshire, it actually is. Like Wisconsin, NH probably would go Republican at some point beyond the tipping point.
I'll be watching to see, beyond who wins or loses, how these state's will fall.
1. Will the Blue Wall hold for a 7th time in a row?
2. Will Virginia take the next step in 2016 and trend more Democratic than the national average?
3. Will the Southwestern states of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico stay in the Democratic column, or can an Hispanic centric Republican like Rubio or Bush turn them around?
4. Will a Bush or a Rubio be able to hold Florida?
If you can take off your partisan blinders and just enjoy the war gaming possibilities, presidential elections are always fascinating.
Agree completely. I was doing similar analysis\scenarios about the Senate midterms and wow did the excuses start flying once the *impossible* occurred.
Things can change A LOT in 6 months, let alone 18.
Walkerphobes are such fabricators and lazy to boot.It took all of 3 seconds of googling to find that Gov. Walker led a trade mission during his first term. Three separate articles from jsonline.com. Walker led a trade mission to China in April of 2013. That is in his first term.
[IMG]Walker's China trade mission is scheduled for April 12-21 and marks his first foreign trip for economic purposes. In his hectic first two years marked by labor protests at the Capitol and an unsuccessful recall attempt against him, Walker didn't make any foreign trade trips, although he did do some traveling to other states for economic development.
First you lied about no foreign trade mission in Gov Walker's first term. When called out you came up with a innuendo driven, speculative article. As is typical, once the cover is pulled back on one of your post 'sources', the story is different. Quite different.
Here are a couple of projects developed by First Pathway Partners, the Milwaukee headquartered company alluded to in the DC article. They are an economic development company, who does work in eb5 as well. Sometimes wealthy Chinese want to invest their money. Wisconsin, or elsewhere? You tell me.
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
Quote:
UWM Real Estate Foundation partners with the public and private sectors to develop and hold real estate for the benefit of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. UWM Real Estate Foundation holdings may include any properties that advance the mission of the University such as residence halls, research and academic space, and facilities to promote economic development.
Yeah, Gov Walker hates education.
The Milwaukee Water Council
Quote:
The Global Water Center reinforces Milwaukee’s position as “The Silicon Valley of Freshwater Research and Technology”. This unique 7-story, 88,025 square foot lofted building serves a multitude of functions: housing twenty-five organizations, academic programs, multinational corporations, and startup businesses. Distinctive amenities include a world class flow lab, type II laboratory standard and pre-treatment for type I standard water, a 45-person lecture hall auditorium, an international video conferencing room, laboratories, and testing areas. Highly advanced technology has been integrated into the labs, such as 3D laser imaging.
Hint: Water for people. Potable water is already a crisis in many poor countries, will become so for developed countries. California ring a bell for you?
See.
Quote:
Tanzanian Ambassador Visits Global Water Center
"Tanzanian Ambassador to the U.S., Liberata Mulamula, recently led a trade visit to the Global Water Center. Ambassador Mulamula was especially interested in the work carried out within the Center surrounding water purification and decontamination, as it is a growing issue in Tanzania."
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojajn
That China trip Walker went on, was to back EB-5 Visas for wealthy Chinese.
First you lied about no foreign trade mission in Gov Walker's first term. When called out you came up with a innuendo driven, speculative article. As is typical, once the cover is pulled back on one of your post 'sources', the story is different. Quite different.
Here are a couple of projects developed by First Pathway Partners, the Milwaukee headquartered company alluded to in the DC article. They are an economic development company, who does work in eb5 as well. Sometimes wealthy Chinese want to invest their money. Wisconsin, or elsewhere? You tell me.
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Yeah, Gov Walker hates education.
The Milwaukee Water Council Hint: Water for people. Potable water is already a crisis in many poor countries, will become so for developed countries. California ring a bell for you?
See.
All is one big immigration machine to America!
Quote:
IMMIGRATION
Helps investors with the application process to assure DHS acceptance. Extensive experience in Immigration application processing including I-829 approval.
EB5 Investment Returned
Five years after your "conditional" green card is issued, your investment is returned with interest. You also have the option of U.S. citizenship or simply keep your green card, renewing it every 10 years.
To gain citizenship, begin by simply submitting the appropriate forms to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services Department. For more on becoming a citizen visit the USCIS website!
Duh! Investments (the Chinese immigrants) fund jobs. What? You are against Wisconsin jobs?
This story is as old as the 1997, really early 90s when wealthy Chinese began to exit Hong Kong, along with their money.
Walker's jobs plan is to provide Visas to foreigners so they can come here and buy up our resources and land as well as compete with American businesses? Nice.
Quote:
Immigration to the United States has long been one of the most vexing issues for foreign nationals seeking a new life on this side of the American border. But a new ABC News investigation looks at one of the most obscure paths to a U.S. visa and green card -- one being aggressively marketed to wealthy foreigners, and one that whistleblowers say is being exploited by criminals, spies, and possibly even terrorists.
Quote:
Senator Charles Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, who has reviewed cases involving regional centers around the country, told ABC News that he is concerned that the program designed to attract foreign investment has also become a magnet for people suspected of serious crimes, even espionage and terrorism. He said in an interview that some government officials who have publicly expressed confidence in the EB-5 program have shared privately their concerns about the security questions.
Scott Walker asks Mexico to open consulate in Wisconsin so that he can help more Mexicans immigrate to Wisconsin.
Quote:
Citing Wisconsin's growing Hispanic population, Gov. Scott Walker has written to Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto asking that a Mexican consulate be established here.
Wisconsin's roads are the third-worst in the nation and the potholes and other problems that plague them cost drivers in some cities almost twice the national average in repairs and associated costs, according to a new study of the state's highway system.
No one denies that Walker was elected three times. However, it's getting harder and harder for his supporters to defend the anemic economic growth that has resulted from his policies. You would think we were still deep in a recession with how some of you talk.
What Wisconsin and Ohio are in pro growth modes and Walker and Kasich have turned their states. Itthe dam unions who have sour grapes because they want to make 150K a year.
We will have to see. Walker has a very important talents he brings to the table and I would say in a debate he could handle Clinton just fine.
If he stays to the issue he will do fine even if he does not make the nomination.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Walker would smoke Clinton.
