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I think this election is shaping up to be like 2004 in that it will be entirely focused on social issues like abortion, gay marriage, and religion in government. The religious right is the angriest they have ever been right now and with the national economy improving, I see the GOP running a "values voter" campaign. Since 2004 however demographics have changed as well as the country's overall acceptance of gay marriage so I don't see them being successful. Swing states like Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia will probably go blue handing the election to Hillary or whoever the Dems nominate. I think the Republican Party would have chance in 2016 if they would ditch social issues but I don't see them doing that, especially as angry as the religious right is over gay marriage right now.
Do you think social issues will dominate the 2016 campaign?
I think this election is shaping up to be like 2004 in that it will be entirely focused on social issues like abortion, gay marriage, and religion in government. The religious right is the angriest they have ever been right now and with the national economy improving, I see the GOP running a "values voter" campaign. Since 2004 however demographics have changed as well as the country's overall acceptance of gay marriage so I don't see them being successful. Swing states like Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia will probably go blue handing the election to Hillary or whoever the Dems nominate. I think the Republican Party would have chance in 2016 if they would ditch social issues but I don't see them doing that, especially as angry as the religious right is over gay marriage right now.
Do you think social issues will dominate the 2016 campaign?
It's the only option the republicans have. They can't run on the economy. Economy is doing fine in spite of their best efforts to destroy it. They can't run on helping the middle and lower class as they've done everything they can to dismantle all the programs that benefit them. They can't run on minority issues as they have constantly defamed and marginalized minorities. They can't run on woman's issues and they can't run on their record, as their record is abysmal for the last 6 years and pretty darn poor the previous 8 years.
It has to be the whole "Moral Compass" argument and how "America has lost it's way" and they will find it for us again. Like Ted Cruz's platform of making church mandatory for all citizens. Now that's something to run on.
It depends on the state of the economy. If we get another crash like in 2008, or even the one like 2001, then fiscal policy will be at the forefront. However, if the economy remains the same between now and late next year, I do see there being a focus on social issues.
And I do agree with you; Republicans will likely stay at a disadvantage as long as they keep their views on various social policies, particularly issues like LGBT rights and immigration. White males are still the one group that reliably votes for Republicans versus other race groups and gender. However, if Republicans don't make grounds with other minority groups, like Hispanics for example, they are going to face a real dilemma come 2040, when there will be more minorities than Whites.
I think there is still a large group of people, including minorities, that find fiscal policies appealing. But for many people, certain platforms on social issues can be a deal breaker.
Yes, I think so. The U6 unemployment rate is down to 2008 levels, and has been lowering since a high of 17% in 2009. It now stands at 11%, and will go below 11% in the next few months. The trajectory has been that the U6 has been going down about 1.5% every year. If the pace continues, U6 should be about 9.0%-9.9% by election time, that will put us at the same level of unemployment before the 2008 crisis.
U3 should be below 5% given the trajectory. That will be extremely difficult to run against.
By all indications, overall unemployment is set to be around pre-crisis or shortly after crisis levels. If it holds up by then, 2016 will have a Democratic president. It's shaping up for a very tough year for the GOP. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, the GOP is offering either Bush or a wingnut as a candidate. Just the name Bush will be a tough sell to the American people, and contrary to popular belief, moderates are not into people like Ted aka Rafael Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Rand Paul. Those 3 are probably the most likely of the non-Bushes to be nominated, and they pander to the base.
The GOP propaganda machine at Fox News and EIB Network can spin the data all they want, the economy has largely recovered and has recovered at the pace even Obama said it would.
I expect the Democrats to bring up the social issues at every possible opportunity. That strategy seems to work for them on a national level, as the Republicans are shy about returning fire.
Most people don't understand quantitative easing and talk about an $18 trillion debt is something few can get their brains about. On the other hand, issues like abortion, and gay marriage, and gun control, these are issues that people understand and what to hear about.
So the GOP will talk about economics and it will go in one ear and out the other of the voters.
The Dems will talk about the "war on women", and without a rebuttal they can't help but win the argument.
The religious right is the angriest they have ever been right now especially as angry as the religious right is over gay marriage right now.
Do you think social issues will dominate the 2016 campaign?
I'm amazed at how crazy the GOP has become in their anger over gay marriage. The comments I've read at other sites have gone from snark to outright fury in a relatively short time. The GOP is fueling something they may deeply regret.
Last edited by Seacove; 03-29-2015 at 11:51 PM..
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