Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The Blue Wall states that have voted for the Democrats for at least the last 6 Presidential elections total 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect a President. The Red States account for 191 electoral votes. Unless some of the Blue Wall can be flipped, the Democrats start with an edge of 53 electoral votes. There are three Blue Wall states among the 14 states that are remotely competitive. Here's what the margins in those states looked like in 2012, from those most favorable to the Republicans to least favorable.
Here's how the campaigns chose to allocate their advertising dollars in 2012:
2012 Ad Buys by State (General Election both Network and Cable)
Total= 896 million
1. Florida= 173m or 19.3% of country total
2. Virginia= 151m or 16.9%
3. Ohio= 150m or 16.7%
Top 3 states accounted for 474m or 52.9% of total spent nationally
4. NC= 97m or 10.8%
5. Colorado= 73m or 8.1%
6. Iowa= 57m or 6.4%
7. Nevada= 55m or 6.1%
Top 7 states accounted for 756m or 84.3%
Only 140 m or 15.7% of total spent in the other 43 states
Back to the Blue Wall. Despite having a presidential nominee who was a native of Michigan and a veep choice from Wisconsin, the GOP didn't choose to drop large amounts on ad buys in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. If those states aren't deemed close enough to invest in, in a year when you have native sons nominated, what's the likelihood of carrying them in the near future?
Also note that the key battles are mostly on the Republican side of the field. The most Republican leaning of these 14 states are the ones being fought for. North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the most Republican leaning of the 14 states and the accounted for about 64% of the ad buys for both parties in 2012, meaning that the more Democratic leaning states aren't really being contested.
The popular vote will be close. It's highly unlikely that either party will receive more than 52% of the vote. The electoral vote though is a much tougher proposition for the GOP, because with the possible exception of Ohio and Iowa, most of the states that are the most heavily contested, as documented by television ad buys, are trending demographically towards the Democrats and becoming more challenging for the Republicans.
Quite correct that it is the electoral vote that matter.
I always thought it was outdated just like Daylight Savings Time, but sadly, things that are absolutely senseless die hard in this now more than ever...azz-backwards country.
Instead of kvetching, how about reading up on why the electoral college was created?
If you think this country is "azz-backwards", then time for you to find another country you like and move there.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
