Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The Blue Wall states that have voted for the Democrats for at least the last 6 Presidential elections total 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect a President. The Red States account for 191 electoral votes. Unless some of the Blue Wall can be flipped, the Democrats start with an edge of 53 electoral votes. There are three Blue Wall states among the 14 states that are remotely competitive. Here's what the margins in those states looked like in 2012, from those most favorable to the Republicans to least favorable.
Here's how the campaigns chose to allocate their advertising dollars in 2012:
2012 Ad Buys by State (General Election both Network and Cable)
Total= 896 million
1. Florida= 173m or 19.3% of country total
2. Virginia= 151m or 16.9%
3. Ohio= 150m or 16.7%
Top 3 states accounted for 474m or 52.9% of total spent nationally
4. NC= 97m or 10.8%
5. Colorado= 73m or 8.1%
6. Iowa= 57m or 6.4%
7. Nevada= 55m or 6.1%
Top 7 states accounted for 756m or 84.3%
Only 140 m or 15.7% of total spent in the other 43 states
Back to the Blue Wall. Despite having a presidential nominee who was a native of Michigan and a veep choice from Wisconsin, the GOP didn't choose to drop large amounts on ad buys in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. If those states aren't deemed close enough to invest in, in a year when you have native sons nominated, what's the likelihood of carrying them in the near future?
Also note that the key battles are mostly on the Republican side of the field. The most Republican leaning of these 14 states are the ones being fought for. North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the most Republican leaning of the 14 states and the accounted for about 64% of the ad buys for both parties in 2012, meaning that the more Democratic leaning states aren't really being contested.
The popular vote will be close. It's highly unlikely that either party will receive more than 52% of the vote. The electoral vote though is a much tougher proposition for the GOP, because with the possible exception of Ohio and Iowa, most of the states that are the most heavily contested, as documented by television ad buys, are trending demographically towards the Democrats and becoming more challenging for the Republicans.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-13-2015 at 09:47 PM..
And if they don't have an ID? Not everyone has an ID or an ID from the state they are within. I haven't gotten around to getting a new ID for the state I am living in, I still have an old one on me from my last state I was living in for a couple of years. Also, do you normally stop people and ask to see their ID or Driver's License? That isn't something I normally do when talking to people.
when you rent, get any loan for a car or home or student loan, apply for credit cards, get utilities under your name, open a bank account, cash your check, APPLY for a job, apply for government assistance, travel on a plane in the U.S. or even get a cell phone account you need a valid picture I.D.
if not everyone like you say have an I.D., how do they get by with the basic things above?
by the way, your state ID from the last state you were living is still valid, you are in the system.....once it has expired you will be force to get a new one because most places won't take an I.D. that it has expired.
when you rent, get any loan for a car or home or student loan, apply for credit cards, get utilities under your name, open a bank account, cash your check, APPLY for a job, apply for government assistance, travel on a plane in the U.S. or even get a cell phone account you need a valid picture I.D.
if not everyone like you say have an I.D., how do they get by with the basic things above?
by the way, your state ID from the last state you were living is still valid, you are in the system.....once it has expired you will be force to get a new one because most places won't take an I.D. that it has expired.
Let me point you back to my post you were commenting on, I wasn't speaking in the general sense, I was speaking about you as in you specifically. How do you or I know someone is here legally or illegally?
Let me point you back to my post you were commenting on, I wasn't speaking in the general sense, I was speaking about you as in you specifically. How do you or I know someone is here legally or illegally?
simple, when they have to get some kind of service or job. Illegals have a stolen/fake I.D.
landlords know......schools where they teach their children usually knows.......there are ways to find if somebody here is illegal....its not rocket science.
The Blue Wall states that have voted for the Democrats for at least the last 6 Presidential elections total 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect a President. The Red States account for 191 electoral votes. Unless some of the Blue Wall can be flipped, the Democrats start with an edge of 53 electoral votes. There are three Blue Wall states among the 14 states that are remotely competitive. Here's what the margins in those states looked like in 2012, from those most favorable to the Republicans to least favorable.
Here's how the campaigns chose to allocate their advertising dollars in 2012:
2012 Ad Buys by State (General Election both Network and Cable)
Total= 896 million
1. Florida= 173m or 19.3% of country total
2. Virginia= 151m or 16.9%
3. Ohio= 150m or 16.7%
Top 3 states accounted for 474m or 52.9% of total spent nationally
4. NC= 97m or 10.8%
5. Colorado= 73m or 8.1%
6. Iowa= 57m or 6.4%
7. Nevada= 55m or 6.1%
Top 7 states accounted for 756m or 84.3%
Only 140 m or 15.7% of total spent in the other 43 states
Back to the Blue Wall. Despite having a presidential nominee who was a native of Michigan and a veep choice from Wisconsin, the GOP didn't choose to drop large amounts on ad buys in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. If those states aren't deemed close enough to invest in, in a year when you have native sons nominated, what's the likelihood of carrying them in the near future?
Also note that the key battles are mostly on the Republican side of the field. The most Republican leaning of these 14 states are the ones being fought for. North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia are the most Republican leaning of the 14 states and the accounted for about 64% of the ad buys for both parties in 2012, meaning that the more Democratic leaning states aren't really being contested.
The popular vote will be close. It's highly unlikely that either party will receive more than 52% of the vote. The electoral vote though is a much tougher proposition for the GOP, because with the possible exception of Ohio and Iowa, most of the states that are the most heavily contested, as documented by television ad buys, are trending demographically towards the Democrats and becoming more challenging for the Republicans.
you are basing this on Bill Clinton and Obama, 2 excellent speakers and politicians..............Americans picks their Presidents on likeability. The best likeable candidate out of the 2. Hillary is NOOOO Bill or Obama.....the more she opens her mouth the more fake she sounds. There is a reason she was rejected by her own party in 2008.
If Democrats have a lock nationwide that would reflect on congress and governorships and right now Republicans have the edge in governorships 31 states to 18 states.
is not the party platform, its the candidate......Hillary is very vulnerable. I give her less than 50% to win.
That is false. Many have friends or family members here illegally. They bond in church, neighborhoods and places of employment. It may not be so much about amnesty as it would be about trying to remove them. Many legal Hispanics fear racial profiling in an attempt to start deporting people. It was Albert Pujols ( a tea party guy) that called for MLB to move the All-Star game out of Arizona after they passed their immigration law a few years back.
if that's the case, Obama has deported more illegals under his administration than any other president and still the Latinos overall voted to re-elect Obama in large numbers.
Arizona has nothing to how many Latinos Obama has deported.
By the way, the Arizona law was the same law as the federal.......nothing new......but hypocritically Obama needed it to play politics and act like he was on the latino side when in fact he has deported more latinos and broken many families than any other president in history.
you are basing this on Bill Clinton and Obama, 2 excellent speakers and politicians..............Americans picks their Presidents on likeability. The best likeable candidate out of the 2. Hillary is NOOOO Bill or Obama.....the more she opens her mouth the more fake she sounds. There is a reason she was rejected by her own party in 2008.
If Democrats have a lock nationwide that would reflect on congress and governorships and right now Republicans have the edge in governorships 31 states to 18 states.
is not the party platform, its the candidate......Hillary is very vulnerable. I give her less than 50% to win.
Again the governorships and congress seats aren't indicator of which side should win the white house either. If that were the case the 1984 Presidential election would have been closer as the house was blue, 1988 would have gone to the Democrats or at least been a dog fight and 1996 should have gone to Republicans as well. Then there's the fact the electorate for a president and the congressional races don't always vote R or D down the line.
simple, when they have to get some kind of service or job. Illegals have a stolen/fake I.D.
landlords know......schools where they teach their children usually knows.......there are ways to find if somebody here is illegal....its not rocket science.
But how do YOU KNOW if someone is illegal or legal? I am not asking how others that perform services and jobs, I am asking how you, the random person walking down the street knows who is here legally or illegally?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
