Used to be that the rationale for the Iowa Caucuses was that Iowans took their politics more seriously than most, and would turn out to rallies, meet & greets etc. to press the flesh with, and ask questions of candidates personally in a way that just isn't practical in larger more populous states. They enjoyed their "extra" responsibility, and took it very seriously. They, and NH, acted as a filter to screen out those who couldn't organize a beer bash in a brewery, amongst others.
Political reporting used to be full of talk about a candidate's Iowa Ground Game.
Remember Obama/Clinton 2008? The Ground Game was still king, precinct captains were celebrities, and that's what propelled Obama.
Doesn't look like that is happening this year, in part because the GOP candidates appear not to be visiting as frequently, and are employing alternative strategies.
And Iowa is not complaining, at least not loudly enough for me to hear.
I just checked the Iowa forum on C-D. There is zero discussion of the candidates, issues, or politics there. If C-D Iowa is representative of Iowa as a whole, the outlook is bleak.
Currently, there's not much difference in the leader board for these two polls, which highlights how close Iowa is to the national mood.
RCP Republican Iowa.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
RCP Republican National.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
Unless there is some change soon, I believe we are watching not so much the death of the Iowa Caucuses, but the death of the significance of the Iowa Caucuses being first in the nation..
No one would suggest that Iowa is representative of the country at large, not racially diverse, but Iowa claims its value in the process is that it does a better job of kicking the tires than anyone else. If Iowa is unable/unwilling to hold up it's end of the bargain, then pressure for alternatives will only increase.
The Des Moines Register Candidate Tracker shows that the eight most frequent Republican visitors to Iowa have each visited between 40 and 90 times since announcement. Other candidates have 104 events currently scheduled in Iowa during August. Trump on the other hand has visited only twice, in July, and has nothing currently scheduled, yet leads in the polls.
Conclusion: Iowa is not doing anything the rest of the US is not and cannot do, at least so far this cycle, and Trump is proving it. Iowa may yet come to regret its embrace of Trump.
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