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Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 23 days ago)
11,772 posts, read 5,785,673 times
Reputation: 14190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78
Talk about an easy Democrat win, Trump would force a split in the GOP vote.
Urban - why can't you get it through your head that a 3rd party vote does not affect the other candidates.
Your theory depends on:
That a clear majority of voters for the minor candidate would align with one of the other candidates.
That those who voted for the minor candidate would still go to the polls if their first choice was not on the ballot.
According to Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, “the idea that the minor party closest to the major party in ideas always hurts that major party is not true.”
Winger cited experimental evidence presented in the book, Predictably Irrational, showing that when people must choose among three alternatives, the preferred of two similar options will be more frequently chosen, relative to the third alternative which is less similar.
If I have 2 choices and like neither - I don't cast a vote even for the lesser of 2 evils - plain and simple. So even if a third party candidate was involved and I did go vote for him - knowing that he probably won't win - it's not taking away from either other candidate.
In a recent poll 42% of Americans called themselves Independent. Many like me - still registered to one party or the other but voting for the candidate that best suits their needs. Voting party lines may still be done in the legislature but it's not like it was 50 yrs ago. My parents voted party line - thy don't even bother to vote anymore and haven't for years. The older people who use to vote party lines mostly only come out to vote against a school budget and even that doesn't attract many of them anymore.
Republican: Jeb Bush
Democrat: Hillary Clinton
Independent: Donal Trump
Don't make us think this could really happen. Let's hope a real winner pulls it off. If I had to choose among those listed, I would vote for Bush in a heartbeat.
I'd flip a coin and pull a lever with my eyes closed. Really no difference in the three.
Oh, come on, you can't really think there is no difference between Trump and Clinton or Trump and Bush. In no way are they alike. I could see you saying that about Clinton and Bush, though I do not agree.
Don't make us think this could really happen. Let's hope a real winner pulls it off. If I had to choose among those listed, I would vote for Bush in a heartbeat.
Oh, this could really happen and if the GOP wants to throw the race, yet again, I'll betting that Trump will run 3rd party. Why wouldn't he? The people support him and I truly believe that he loves our country. Not many people understand anymore what it is like to love your country. To be considered proud of anything anymore is considered not to be "PC" in our country. "Stumping for the Trump" 2016
In terms of Constitutional balance, the optimal outcome is a president (one per family per century) from one party with less than 50% of the popular vote and a Congress controlled by the opposing party (some combination of 217+ representatives and 41+ senators), opposing meaning not in name only but making real, though also constructive, opposition.
And therein lies the potential beauty and usefulness of third-party candidates and splitting one's votes in various ways depending on practical circumstances at the moment (no room here for some adolescent ideologies).
Useless and possibly damaging is not voting at all: there are other important elections on the ballot, at the very least Congressional representative, sometimes senator, state representative, sometimes state senator, various county and municipal positions, including law enforcement, property assessors, and judgeships.
All the above is part of what we call government in the United States - Constitution purposefully designed for the diffusion of power at various levels, because all individuals, and especially because of their ideologies, make horrible mistakes, yet still capable of extraordinary unity to achieve practical things - not just the chief executive of the federal government.
Urban - why can't you get it through your head that a 3rd party vote does not affect the other candidates.
Your theory depends on:
That a clear majority of voters for the minor candidate would align with one of the other candidates.
That those who voted for the minor candidate would still go to the polls if their first choice was not on the ballot.
According to Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, “the idea that the minor party closest to the major party in ideas always hurts that major party is not true.”
Winger cited experimental evidence presented in the book, Predictably Irrational, showing that when people must choose among three alternatives, the preferred of two similar options will be more frequently chosen, relative to the third alternative which is less similar.
If I have 2 choices and like neither - I don't cast a vote even for the lesser of 2 evils - plain and simple. So even if a third party candidate was involved and I did go vote for him - knowing that he probably won't win - it's not taking away from either other candidate.
In a recent poll 42% of Americans called themselves Independent. Many like me - still registered to one party or the other but voting for the candidate that best suits their needs. Voting party lines may still be done in the legislature but it's not like it was 50 yrs ago. My parents voted party line - thy don't even bother to vote anymore and haven't for years. The older people who use to vote party lines mostly only come out to vote against a school budget and even that doesn't attract many of them anymore.
Tell that to Bob Dole.
And your logic is flawed because you are assuming those who would vote for a third party candidate wouldn't have voted for one of the other two candidates. If a conservative third party candidate is running, they will most certainly take away votes from the Republican candidate.
Status:
"Smartened up and walked away!"
(set 23 days ago)
11,772 posts, read 5,785,673 times
Reputation: 14190
Your reasoning is flawed because Trump is not a true conservative - JEB is - so if he is running - there's no reason true conservatives will vote for Trump. Trumps getting his votes from across the boards Dems, Rep, Independents.
I know many who will write in a name just to prove their displeasure with the choices the 2 parties are shoving down everyone's throat. My logic - is not flawed - it's fact. Even if a third party candidate didn't run - the split has been proven to be 50/50 - 50% of a third party candidates voters would vote Dem if they decide to vote / 50% will vote Republican.
We are not in the 195o's anymore. There's no reason to vote party lines as people can make their own decisions given all the information out there - they are not drinking the Kool-Aid either party is serving.
From that right-wing, conservative, Tea Party favorite, The Economist.
Hillary, dropping like a rock.
Bye, Hill. Be a good grandma.
Yep, and hello Bernie Sanders. He has been moving in on her territory quickly.
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I could see you saying that about Clinton and Bush, though I do not agree.
