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Based on his track record, I believe in Silver's ability to construct a statistical model based on polls and other data. I could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything that indicates that he is a partisan . . . he is just calling what he sees. We will see about the GOP nomination. There are two ways for Mr. Trump to not be the nominee.
Mick
you have a whole lot of voters out there, who are followers, know nothing about politics and only vote for someone that he/she thinks everyone else if voting for....
You also have one issue voters who cannot see beyond that one issue, that they are voting for.
a whole lot of misinformed voters who only vote for a dem, b/c they are a dem, or a repub, b/c they are a repub....so?
I take no stock in predictions, at this point, after the horrible job Obama did, your also going to get a lot of people out there voting, simply b/c Obama did a horrible job, actually worse then Bush...and those are the people who are inform themselves....
This is what so many fail to understand about Silver. If he has political leanings, he does an excellent job concealing them. I've read many of his writings and seen/heard many of his interviews, and he can't discern his political views at all.
It's very clear that much of his animosity to Trump is personal. If that has anything to do with politics, I do not know. If Trump had run as a (D) it might be the same but this is personal with Silver.
nope, for the most part I do not see Carson supporters going to Trump: They will mainly head to Cruz, followed by Rubio. you need to consider those who do not support Trump are totally anti Trump. Trump is a love/hate type of candidate.
Those who "hate" Trump are the establishment types. They most certainly are not going to swing to Cruz.
I don't see any of the frontrunner GOPers being able to get along with Congress.....more stagnation in DC if Cruz, Trump, Rubio are elected. I see Kasich, Bush, Christie getting further along and getting things done with our Congress. If anyone is upset with how things are done today with our politicians, Cruz, Trump, Rubio will likely be butting heads with McConnell and Ryan....
It's odd. It was those who worked with President Obama that were thrown out of office. Why were they? It's not what the country wanted or Obama promised. If anyone wins by saying "I will do this and this" and then works to do that and they are blocked by anyone, it's those doing the blocking that will lose their jobs.
That was his first forecast? Well, here was his last one: 2014 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
Mr. Silver estimated that the Republican party had a 76.2 percent chance of winning the majority in the Senate.
Haha. You totally missed the point that I made. Try re-reading it in context.
Easy answer. You argue that Silver is right. i.e. Trump won't be the nominee.
What you won't say however is if you actually believe him or not. This is a simple yes/no answer.
????? Once again, *belief* is not the issue. But I have said, several times, that I *think* Silver is probably right. You take a religious approach. I don't.
My distinction between believing and thinking is apparently too much for you to handle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
Finally how Silver did in the past is irrelevant because it hasn't been proved that his methods will work now.
Is that how you judge all possibilities? For instance, how Serena Williams has done in past tennis matches is irrelevant to how she will do in her next match?
But it is true, as I have noted several times, that Silver's model is based on past voting patterns. Some people, and I am assuming that you are one of them, think that this election is a pattern-breaker. Maybe so. But then, that was said about Perot too.
Who makes argument for something they don't believe? There is of course an answer for this but I'm willing to bet that you don't want to put yourself in this camp.
Who makes argument for something they don't believe? There is of course an answer for this but I'm willing to bet that you don't want to put yourself in this camp.
I *believe* as little as possible.
Since I take a non-religious approach to life.
I am an atheist, and I'm not a bit hesitant about putting myself in that camp.
It's very clear that much of his animosity to Trump is personal. If that has anything to do with politics, I do not know. If Trump had run as a (D) it might be the same but this is personal with Silver.
He's now staked his reputation on it.
Please provide evidence. He's just stating the probability -based on evidence- that Trump is unlikely to win the election if nominated. Please provide evidence for the 'personal animosity' towards Trump.
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