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The secondary reason is that their objection to Trump is not based on anything that Trump stands for… to the extent we can presume to know what that may be… but rather on aesthetics.
Trump is in their social circle. They go to the same parties. They play golf together. They belong to the same clubs and are boards of the same philanthropies. Trump is quintessential establishment. What they don’t like is his public (I say public because I’ve never met Trump and certainly never been around him in a private setting) persona.
They don’t like his populism. They don’t like his seeking the adoration of the mob rather than ruling the mob.
But, push come to shove, he is one of them, they are convinced they can deal with him because he really doesn’t have any guiding principles above self-interest. In other words, they are Trump but with better public manners.
Cruz, on the other hand, represents something they have never had to deal with: a man who actually believes what he is campaigning on.
If this does come down to a Cruz vs. Trump contest rather than the Cruz vs. Rubio contest that many of us have predicted, the GOP establishment is going to fall in solidly behind Donald Trump.
Bear in mind that 43% of the electorate 'self-identify' as independents and, in 2012, 70% of voters 'self-identified' as independents or moderates.
According to a December poll by YouGov, 58% of moderates and 51% of Independents "would never vote for" Donald Trump.
The numbers were only slightly better for Ted Cruz (47% and 41%). The same polling showed Marco Rubio to be the best positioned among Independents with 37% saying they would consider him and 32% ruling him out while nearly 50% said they would never vote for Jeb Bush or Chris Christie.
In a large presidential field the percentage of those who said they would not vote for a particular candidate may provide the most accurate forecast for 2016. The GOP may nominate Trump or Cruz but, if the poll is to be believed, it is likely to be electoral suicide in November.
Please provide evidence. He's just stating the probability -based on evidence- that Trump is unlikely to win the election if nominated. Please provide evidence for the 'personal animosity' towards Trump.
Read his columns on Trump. I don't really care enough to bother looking them up for you. Believe it or not, I'm good with it.
The secondary reason is that their objection to Trump is not based on anything that Trump stands for… to the extent we can presume to know what that may be… but rather on aesthetics.
Trump is in their social circle. They go to the same parties. They play golf together. They belong to the same clubs and are boards of the same philanthropies. Trump is quintessential establishment. What they don’t like is his public (I say public because I’ve never met Trump and certainly never been around him in a private setting) persona.
They don’t like his populism. They don’t like his seeking the adoration of the mob rather than ruling the mob.
But, push come to shove, he is one of them, they are convinced they can deal with him because he really doesn’t have any guiding principles above self-interest. In other words, they are Trump but with better public manners.
Cruz, on the other hand, represents something they have never had to deal with: a man who actually believes what he is campaigning on.
If this does come down to a Cruz vs. Trump contest rather than the Cruz vs. Rubio contest that many of us have predicted, the GOP establishment is going to fall in solidly behind Donald Trump.
I've noted they are starting to come around.......they are starting to accept the inevitable. As I said, they are not going to swing to Cruz.
If anyone appeals to his base and his base only it is Cruz. The establishment hated that Trump crashed their party but then he became the life of the party.
Read his columns on Trump. I don't really care enough to bother looking them up for you. Believe it or not, I'm good with it.
I've read many of his columns. Just because he's highly doubtful of Trump's viability in the POTUS election doesn't mean it's personal. He might not like Trump personally, but his writings indicate nothing personal. He's just stating probabilities based on polling data; that's anything but personal.
I'm not one that's going to vote for Trump, but in fairness while Nate Silver is pretty good at what he does, he wildly missed the results of the UK elections (but then again so did pretty much everyone)
Silver is now less skeptical that Trump will be the nominee. While not a foregone conclusion, he now acknowledges that the Republican establishment isn't doing as much to thwart Trump as he expected:
Yes because people are going to be thrilled to cast a ballot for Clinton or Sanders.
Many people vote the lesser of two evils and you know that.
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