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Clinton 1304 (hard total 1238)-- Needs 43.8% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1099 (hard total 998)- Needs 56.3% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 59.3% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington, Nevada and Wyoming's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 758 Needs 60.3% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 547 Needs 86.8% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 173 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 11 Unpledged 27
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done) In addition to get the majority of the Pledged delegates Trump would need 59.3% of remaining pledged delegates and Cruz would need 88.8%/B]
67.8% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 8% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them
It differs by state, some states it is bound on the first ballot (in some cases beyond) in others it becomes unbound automatically, others it depends if Rubio is on the actual ballot or not. I will see if I can do some digging this weekend to update any of the Rubio delegate count.
What I believe may happen will be this:
Trump squeezes by on the first ballot.
His likely sweep of the April 19 and 26 primaries will put Cruz too far behind to win on the second ballot. His roughly 200 delegate deficit could turn into nearly 400 after next week.
If Trump comes up short on the first ballot and Cruz fails to get it on the second ballot, Cruz will realize that what he "warned" the RNC about last week (I think it was) might happen on ballot three. He warned against trying to steal it from "he or Trump."
The collective delegates of Rubio and Kasich may cost Cruz in the end. Bitter enemies Trump and Cruz may become friends after the second ballot if it gets that far.
We'll see what happens.
Wyoming statewide delegates have already been allocated by the state party, so the results are pledged to caucus day results and not subject to subsequent state conventions (state conventions will elect who to represent the candidates, not how many to represent). Green papers might have misinterpreted the rules. Frequently Asked Questions | Wyoming Democrats
Clinton 1304 (hard total 1238)-- Needs 43.8% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1099 (hard total 998)- Needs 56.3% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 59.3% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington, Nevada and Wyoming's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 758 Needs 60.3% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 547 Needs 86.8% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 173 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 11 Unpledged 27
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done) In addition to get the majority of the Pledged delegates Trump would need 59.3% of remaining pledged delegates and Cruz would need 88.8%/B]
67.8% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 8% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them
Thanks, we can always depend on you to give us the true facts. Thanks again.
I differ from most I think: certainly from the Sunday media shows: I see a very split convention: neither Cruz or Trump ending up with the nomination, not second or third or whatever ballot and a third candidate as the nominee. I realize this is not a common view, but it is mine; maybe wishful thinking. BTW any of you who think Cruz and Trump will come together: I don't see this at all, not in our life time. Trump will not support anyone but Trump and Cruz would probably vote for Trump but never come over to his side.
Updated with Preliminary results from tonight. Clinton takes 139 delegates Sanders 108 in NY. On the GOP side Trump takes 90 delegates, Kasich 5. Trump takes over 50% statewide and in all but three of NY's congressional districts. Appears that Kasich did win one of them NY-12
Democrats
Clinton 1443 (hard total 1377)-- Needs 41.6% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1207 (hard total 1106)- Needs 58.5% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 65.4% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington, Nevada and Wyoming's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 847 Needs 55.6% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 548 Needs 98.4% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 173 Kasich 149 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 11 Unpledged 27
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done) In addition to get the majority of the Pledged delegates Trump would need 54.4% of remaining pledged delegates and Cruz can't get to it/B]
71.7% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 6% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them
Sanders behind by 277 with 16 more Primaries to go...1600 delegates up for grabs...Bernie needs just over a 1000 to lock it up and Hillary needs just over 900 to lock it up. Will be a Brokered Convention.
Sanders behind by 277 with 16 more Primaries to go...1600 delegates up for grabs...Bernie needs just over a 1000 to lock it up and Hillary needs just over 900 to lock it up. Will be a Brokered Convention.
She won't get to the goal with just pledged delegates...true...but the super delegates will put her way over the edge...The super delegates will never switch to someone who lost the pledged delegate count, popular vote, and only being a democrat for a year to further his own interests.
Sanders behind by 277 with 16 more Primaries to go...1600 delegates up for grabs...Bernie needs just over a 1000 to lock it up and Hillary needs just over 900 to lock it up. Will be a Brokered Convention.
She won't get to the goal with just pledged delegates...true...but the super delegates will put her way over the edge...The super delegates will never switch to someone who lost the pledged delegate count, popular vote, and only being a democrat for a year to further his own interests.
It's over for Sanders.
Actually, there is at least a mathematical chance Hillary could get to 2383 in pledged delegates alone. But that's irrelevant because that's never been the standard. Superdelegates make up just under 20% of total delegates and winning the primary has never required getting a majority of 2383 delegates solely from among the pledged delegates and excluding superdelegates from that count.
What does seem quite likely at this point is that Hillary will get a majority 2026 pledged delegates which, when combined with the superdelegates who have declared their support for her, will put her well over the 2383 majority of all available delegates. And that has always been the standard that matters, despite the Sanders campaign's attempts to create a Hillary-only standard that hasn't been applied to any other candidates.
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