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The respected British publication "The Economist" annually lists their "Top Ten Global Risks".
This year they included a Donald Trump presidency among them.
April 2016
High probability, Very high impactChina experiences a hard landing
High probability, High impactRussia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new "cold war"
High probability, High impactCurrency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis
Moderate probability, Very high impactBeset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture
Moderate probability, Very high impact"Grexit" is followed by a euro zone break-up Moderate probability, High impact Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
Moderate probability, High impactThe rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy
Low probability, High impactThe UK votes to leave the EU
Low probability, High impactChinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea
Very low probability, High impactA collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock
Quote:
Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
Moderate probability, High impact; Risk intensity = Global risk intensity|Moderate probability, High impact
March 16th 2016
Introduction
The businessman and political novice, Donald Trump, has built a strong lead in the Republican party primary, and looks the firm favourite to be the party's candidate in the US presidential election in November.
Analysis
Thus far Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies - and these tend to be prone to constant revision - but a few themes have become apparent. First, he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA, and has repeatedly labelled China as a "currency manipulator". He has also taken an exceptionally right-wing stance on the Middle East and jiadhi terrorism, including, among other things, advocating the killing of families of terrorists and launching a land incursion into Syria to wipe out IS (and acquire its oil). In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war - and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.
Conclusion
Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn. It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress - albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.
Lucky for me, I don't need to read the article because I am intelligent enough to not have to have someone else decide who I should for.
Who cares what any media outlet says? I don't care how long they have been in business. Everyone knows the media in general is under fire and every one of them is there trying to get attention for themselves before they disappear from the globe.
Yes, Trump has the intention of stopping our current "door mat for the world" and I am sure that makes some of the "receivers" uncomfortable. Good!
Our biggest threat right now is being taken advantage of by every other country in the world and that is my focus.
God damn it, Mr. Trump is #6. We just don't win any more. When he becomes the next President, we will be great again .... #1 global risk!!!! U-S-A, U-S-A.
And since they are such a well respected economist publication, no mention how all our past politicians who have us up to almost a 20 trillion dollar debt is not an issue/threat for our economy? The escalating/unsustainable costs to our health care system? SSN? Medicare? On and on and on? And they are now just waking up to being nervous of trump and not mentioning any of those issues in the past as top 10 material, eh? All is well otherwise and trump is the problem?
God damn it, Mr. Trump is #6. We just don't win any more. When he becomes the next President, we will be great again .... #1 global risk!!!! U-S-A, U-S-A.
Mick
Yep, China is winning, Trump is right.
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