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Let's see...my wife, my in laws and the family, my coworkers and fellow Union members, the guys I train with at the gym, guy at the supermarket just now with a Trump hat, my mechanic and his family....I can keep going but that's an awful lot of black people that I know of. And I'm just one guy that's seeing this. There are a hell of a lot more examples then that all across the country.
Mick is saying 15% will eventually go that route, but it will be over 20%+. And if that happens the Dems are in for a serious hurting. Deny it day and night, this election will turn all conventional wisdom on its ear. A thing of beauty...
Are >20% of black voters you know leaning towards Trump? Do these same voters usually support Democrats? That would be huge!
My sense is Trump will earn support from a greater percentage of black voters (6%) than Romney but 20% seems a little high. It seems like there are always rumors of the GOP Presidential candidate doing well (say 10%+) with black voters, but it never happens.
Are you joking? Blacks use to do a lot of the blue-collared jobs that illegals are doing now and so did whites. Whites do not collect the most welfare percentage wise to their population numbers.
Here's some data for you.
Trump has a documented history of housing discrimination against African Americans and Hilary is a supporter mass incarceration and private prisons. Neither deserve the african American vote
documented accusation.. when you rent to even a few people you get accusations
Trump has a documented history of housing discrimination against African Americans and Hilary is a supporter mass incarceration and private prisons. Neither deserve the african American vote
You take the lesser of the 2 evils. Billary has been part of the govt for 2 decades now and haven't seen anything done in that time span to improve racial harmony.
Don't forget, Mitt only got 6% of the black vote. 15% might be enough to put Trump over the top.
Indeed, I don't disagree with that there is a potential for being a difference maker. However, let's look at the numbers from 2012, since that's the data we are using for comparison.
2012
127 million votes (100%)
16.51 million African-American votes (13%)
0.99 million African-American votes for Romney (6%)
15.35 million African-American votes for Obama (93%)
2016
2.452 million African-American votes for Trump (15%)
13.89 million African-American votes for Hillary (85%)
So, about 1.55 million votes would be gained by the Republicans by increasing black support from 6 to 15%. Romney lost to Obama by 5 million.
Of course, all of this exercise is academic, since Mr. Trump is not Romney, and popular votes won't tell us about electoral votes. But the point is going from 6 to 15% is not going to make a large difference. 1.55 million votes represent only 1.2% of the total votes.
Which jobs would these be? And please share your proof from a credible source that they are indeed ILLEGAL immigrants working these jobs. I'll wait...
So, are you stating no illegals work?
For every illegal working, that is a job that a legal immigrant or citizen could be doing.
Given the black unemployment rate, especially among low educated, young blacks, illegals who are also mostly low educated and young, are offering serious competition, competition that should not exist if the laws were being enforced.
Let's see...my wife, my in laws and the family, my coworkers and fellow Union members, the guys I train with at the gym, guy at the supermarket just now with a Trump hat, my mechanic and his family....I can keep going but that's an awful lot of black people that I know of. And I'm just one guy that's seeing this. There are a hell of a lot more examples then that all across the country.
Mick is saying 15% will eventually go that route, but it will be over 20%+. And if that happens the Dems are in for a serious hurting. Deny it day and night, this election will turn all conventional wisdom on its ear. A thing of beauty...
I think you are right about the conventional wisdom. . . . from my side, I wonder how much of it would hold up.
However, in your backyard of NY, the climb is very steep. Obama crushed Romney 63-35% in 2012, and 94% of blacks in NY voted for Obama. Romney is no Trump, and Hillary is no Obama, but it is a long ways to go.
Let's see...my wife, my in laws and the family, my coworkers and fellow Union members, the guys I train with at the gym, guy at the supermarket just now with a Trump hat, my mechanic and his family....I can keep going but that's an awful lot of black people that I know of. And I'm just one guy that's seeing this. There are a hell of a lot more examples then that all across the country.
Mick is saying 15% will eventually go that route, but it will be over 20%+. And if that happens the Dems are in for a serious hurting. Deny it day and night, this election will turn all conventional wisdom on its ear. A thing of beauty...
My area is highly Democratic, and Black.. and I see Trump signs, where 8 years ago, I was probably the only one with a Republican sign in my yard...
And the nominee hasnt even been made yet..
Anyone who thinks Dems wont cross and vote Trump is kidding themselves. 7% of the local Democratic committee just lost their position for voting Trump..
Ummmm, no. Even if by some miracle Trump DID get 15% of the black vote, his horrible showing among Latinos would offset it. Romney won 27% of the Latino vote, Trump will be lucky to get 10%. Go back to before Obama and Republicans still had awful numbers with black voters. Bush only got 9% in 2000 and 11% in 2004.
Anyone who thinks Dems wont cross and vote Trump is kidding themselves. 7% of the local Democratic committee just lost their position for voting Trump..
No one is saying that. Mr. Trump will definitely get tons of defectors. It will happen in both directions for sure. The question is (i) how many from each side would vote for the opposing side, (ii) how many people will stay home, and (iii) how many independents will vote for each side. No one knows where the "net" positive differential would fall and for whom. This election will be the toughest to forecast in many decades.
Mick
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.. when you rent to even a few people you get accusations
