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Hillary's greatest problem is Hillary.
Donald Trump's greatest problem is Donald.
Both are going to get in their own way and screw up doing it until election day.
Those who vote with their emotions already have their minds made up.
Those who do not will silently watch, take other things than personality into account, and vote as they will, making their decisions on other factors. All the partisan horn tooting, name calling, or partisanship won't change these voters at all.
How close the popular vote is at the end won't decide the election. Who walks away with the most electoral votes will win, just as it always is.
So- both Clinton and Trump are in the pickle barrel. They're both who they are, and the emotional voter's minds are all made up this time. Few are going to change their minds, that's for sure. Voters who always vote for one party can not ever have a clearer distinction than this election offers.
Past that, who knows what's going through the minds of the other voters? Personally, I think a lot of them won't make up their minds until they're in the booth, or will have their minds made up by some event that will happen late into the campaign. There always is one deciding event that pops up out of the blue.
I believe the statistics from the past 21st century elections will hold once more. I also expect to see a larger turnout than in 2012, but I have no crystal ball. This election is a unique test of our democracy, that's for sure.
Clinton's real dilemma is that she's outspent Trump by a margin of 15 to 1 with no up swing in the polls to show for it. So apparently, her gamble hasn't paid off as both candidates are in a statistical tie. Now who's the buffoon?
Once the dems convention is over and Trump starts blasting the air waves with Clinton's lies and his vision for the future, Trump will poll better on up to election day.
Face it dems, Hillary's days are numbered and America will finally be done with here. Hasta La Vista, Crooked Hillary!
Why does everyone assume the MOE will favor Trump? The final result could easily end up a few percentage points higher than what the polls are currently showing. There is precedence for this.
There's no reason to think Hillary isn't ahead, not when the few polls that have Donald in front are mostly coming from one source (Rasmussen).
I'm not talking about Rasmussen having Trump up. I'm talking about the other polls where its MOE range. I don't even count Rasmussen because I think they are a hack poll.
She could be ahead, but it doesn't matter now. What matters for now is that people will hear that she is in a statistical tie with a person she has characterized as a Neanderthal, when in most peoples' minds she should be up by 10+ given the media narrative about her and Trump.
No, sorry--I see no "pickle." It will work to her advantage. Her voters agree with your assessment of Trump, and will turn out big time to vote and ensure he gets nowhere near the WH or nuclear codes.
Hillary doesn't have the ego or alpha male baggage that Trump has and has no problem telling people he could win if they don't get out and vote. I've read this straight from her campaign.
Sadly, I think Clinton has a problem with some of those voters slipping away. After Comey's report was read, it became more than obvious to most that she was indeed the liar she claimed not to be and was handling classified documents in a way that demonstrated that she was not competent to be employed by any government entity.
Hillary thinks she is a god, which considering that Bill's womanizing and her acceptance was kind of like he pooped on her and she asked for more.
And, your source, "I've read this straight from her campaign." Too funny! I get it now, humor!
Glad to know you weren't serious, I was thinking "Where has this person been the last few weeks?"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camaro5
If the polls show the candidates are close, Hillary will just have to cheat harder.
And, that's the one thing we can count on with Hillary, she'll do what she has to to win!
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverkris
Polls have limited usefulness and one has to look at the context.
It's pretty common for a candidate to get a bounce from the convention. So it's no surprise that Trump will be close in the overall national polls. Expect Clinton to also get a bounce after the DNC as well.
Also, national polls aren't all that meaningful because of the Electoral College system and awarding of EC votes on a winner take all basis. State by State ones, particularly in key swing states, are more critical to focus upon.
Trump had the bounce before the convention. Hillary should have had a bounce when Sanders quit but I think that Comey's report offset that one.
I'm not talking about Rasmussen having Trump up. I'm talking about the other polls where its MOE range. I don't even count Rasmussen because I think they are a hack poll.
She could be ahead, but it doesn't matter now. What matters for now is that people will hear that she is in a statistical tie with a person she has characterized as a Neanderthal, when in most peoples' minds she should be up by 10+ given the media narrative about her and Trump.
Without Rasmussen, Hillary's RCP average would be outside the MOE.
There's a reason why Vegas has her odds of winning at 75%. They've seen this movie before, and know how it ends (Republican tears).
Just four years ago, Obama led Romney by a measly 1.9% a month after the conventions.
Eight years ago he led McCain by 3% a month after the conventions.
His is actual margins of victory were 3.9% and 7.3% respectively.
Current polls do not show a tie. Yes, they all have a margin of error but it would be a mistake to assume that in every poll, the MoE would break in favor of Trump.
Right now, Hillary still leads in the polls by an average of 2.7% per RCP. And if you add Johnson and Stein to the mix, Hillary's numbers go up, to 3.5%. That's a bigger popular vote lead than George Bush had for either of his wins, and just under what Obama won by in 2012.
Of course, our election isn't decided by popular vote anyway. When you look at individual states, Hillary has a decisive lead on how the electoral college will be decided.
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It is fortunate Americans get to see the farce first and then the real thing. Trump's numbers were expected to go up during the convention and Hillary's during hers.
The question doesn't come till after her convention.
The only poll that counts is on Election Day in November.
Don't hang your hat on polls today.....particularly the ones that are made up.
I agree. I don't get why people care about poll numbers in July when so much can happen between now and election day that moves poll numbers one way or the other. I guess its just something for people to talk about and discuss, but much of it is pretty meaningless. The only time I actually give a damn about poll numbers is probably 1-2 weeks away from election day when we're almost at the end.
Fair enough, though I disagree about her not having an ego. But assume you're right and she doesn't. So how does she justify being tied with Trump? The only explanation I see would be for her to say half the population is stupid. Probably not the best thing to say if she wants to win over moderates.
Hahaha, well I am not a Republican, I was rooting for Bernie Sanders[wish he had run as an Independent], but anymore I would say every time a Democrat unzips their pants.......their brains fall out!
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