Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I don't get why people keep posting these predictions.
Depending on who's side one is I'm sure one can find many predictions in favor of one or the other........
You've never heard of Nate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wall st kid
nate silver is losing it, he ought to just skip this election and get working on 2020.
Wishful thinking. Nate isn't losing it - not by a long shot.
Nate Silver called it almost to the district for 2012 - when so many other pollsters were saying a Romney win. The revered "Rasmussen" poll is a joke - always a GOP bent. Remember the idiocy of Karl Rove when Fox called Ohio for Obama - Rove refused to believe it. Megan Kelly had to traipse back to the prognosticators desk to verify - and still he wouldn't believe it. Made me wonder how many polling places Rove thought had been rigged in their favor. He was so adamant.
Nate, on the other hand, bundles a composite of as many polls as he can find. I'm disregarding Polls Plus or Now Cast on the 538 site which show wider margins in favor of Hillary. "Polls-only" - which is what Nate used in 2012 - is a realistic way to view the trend. Right now it's 51%/49% in favor of Hillary - with only a 2.8 electoral vote difference - pretty narrow. It's gone up a point or so in the last day.
Wishful thinking. Nate isn't losing it - not by a long shot.
Nate Silver called it almost to the district for 2012 - when so many other pollsters were saying a Romney win. The revered "Rasmussen" poll is a joke - always a GOP bent. Remember the idiocy of Karl Rove when Fox called Ohio for Obama - Rove refused to believe it. Megan Kelly had to traipse back to the prognosticators desk to verify - and still he wouldn't believe it. Made me wonder how many polling places he thought were rigged in their favor. He was so adamant.
Nate, on the other hand, bundles a composite of as many polls as he can find. I'm disregarding Polls Plus or Now Cast on the 538 site. "Polls-only" is a realistic way to view the trend. Right now it's 51%/49% in favor of Hillary - pretty narrow. It's gone up a point or so in the last day.
its easy to 'call things' when you're not risking large sums of money.
its easy to 'call things' when you're not risking large sums of money.
Oh, please... we're talking about statistical analysis. What does betting have to do with this??
Nate's predictions are only as good as the data FROM OUTSIDE SOURCES which he inputs into his algorithms. If people are lying in the polls, then his predictions will be erroneous.
It's all about the data. Nothing more. There aren't any data/predictions more agnostic and impartial than Nate's.
Have you ever seen him, btw? A geek/nerd if ever there was one. A true quant.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 07-31-2016 at 10:32 PM..
I just pulled up Nate Silver site and it says 51% probability Hillary and 49% Trump....the key point is the race is very tight...either side jumping to conclusions of a landslide is foolhardy and/or dishonest.
I just pulled up Nate Silver site and it says 51% probability Hillary and 49% Trump....the key point is the race is very tight...either side jumping to conclusions of a landslide is foolhardy and/or dishonest.
Exactly - which is just what I said upthread, as well. This is a very tight race b/c Hillary has so many negatives.
Fwiw - I do not favor her/Dems immigration policies at all. I think we should stop ALL immigration for at least three years - from everywhere - and get this country under control. But, Trump, unfortunately, talks like a crazy person most of the time - immature, reactive, and childish. At his age and with his wealth and life experience he should have evolved beyond all the kid stuff - but he hasn't. Frightening.
I don't get why people keep posting these predictions.
Depending on who's side one is I'm sure one can find many predictions in favor of one or the other........
Really? Please show me one good source that shows Trump winning the Electoral College vote.
she stays with a man who cheated on her multiple times for political gain and takes pictures with her daughter, a woman not even raised by her. Her life is a lie.
Good god. Somebody's been spending too much time reading right-wing pseudo-news sites.
Is 61% really that great exiting the convention? I think the Hilbots had more to brag about when she had a ~77% of winning.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
