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Old 08-02-2016, 09:56 AM
 
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It is looking more and more likely that Clinton will prevail and win in 2016, at least based on many forecasts.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-forecast/#now

Assuming that happens, does a Clinton win in 2016 almost guarantee a Republican win in 2020? Hillary will run for a second term, and by that time the Republicans will surely be able to rustle up a viable candidate.

The Republican's nemesis in 2016 is Trump, but Clinton will be a disaster for Democrats in 2020. This seems encouraging. Republicans will HAVE to bring a mainstream useful candidate in 2020 if they want to get back in the game - they will have learned their harsh lesson with Mr. Trump.

Predictions?
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:01 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GearHeadDave View Post

Assuming that happens, does a Clinton win in 2016 almost guarantee a Republican win in 2020?
Predictions?
Like James Carville said, "it's the economy stupid." If the economy does well and there are no major negative events, Hillary will probably be reelected. If there's a recession then a Republican will most likely win, assuming they come up with a reasonable candidate next time.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:04 AM
 
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None of the people posting predictions will be here after the elections saying how wrong they were.

No matter how it goes, those wrong will not admit it later on.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Southern Nevada
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Very few presidents only last one term and if Clinton gets in should would have to be an absolute disaster not to win in 2020. That is entirely possible, and about what I expect, but she should win in 2020 anyway. She will make sure of it, one way or another.

I'm not sure anybody the Republican would run in 2020 would have much of a chance.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:08 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GearHeadDave View Post
Assuming that happens, does a Clinton win in 2016 almost guarantee a Republican win in 2020? Hillary will run for a second term, and by that time the Republicans will surely be able to rustle up a viable candidate.
Hahahaha do you actually trust the GOP electorate? Trump was the clear winner this time round with Cruz in second at one point along with Ben Carson.

THAT electorate? You reckon they'll nominate a 'electable' candidate?

The GOP electorate have no idea whats electable, Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle were proof of that.

They'll be lucky to avoid Ted Cruz.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:09 AM
 
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If Hillary wins in 2016 it will mean that the Democrats would have won 5 of the last 7 (71%) Presidential contests and 6 of the last 7 (86%) popular votes.

Given those numbers, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:11 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Camaro5 View Post
Very few presidents only last one term and if Clinton gets in should would have to be an absolute disaster not to win in 2020. That is entirely possible, and about what I expect, but she should win in 2020 anyway. She will make sure of it, one way or another.

I'm not sure anybody the Republican would run in 2020 would have much of a chance.
2020 would make the fourth Democrat administration in a row. Last 3 same-party in a row was Reagan/Reagan/Bush, but not sure 4 has ever happened (4 administrations in a row for a party).
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:12 AM
 
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Originally Posted by SharpshooterTom View Post
Hahahaha do you actually trust the GOP electorate? Trump was the clear winner this time round with Cruz in second at one point along with Ben Carson.

THAT electorate? You reckon they'll nominate a 'electable' candidate?

The GOP electorate have no idea whats electable, Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle were proof of that.

They'll be lucky to avoid Ted Cruz.
Maybe you are right - but I give the powers that be more credit than that. There are plenty of big money traditional conservatives that would surely try to turn that around.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:14 AM
 
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Originally Posted by GearHeadDave View Post
2020 would make the fourth Democrat administration in a row. Last 3 in a row was Reagan/Reagan/Bush so I guess that's possible, but not sure that has ever happened (4 administrations in a row for a party).
FDR in 44... He didn't survive it, Truman took over and the rest is history.

She will win again if the economy is good and wages come up. People vote based on their pocket books.
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Old 08-02-2016, 10:15 AM
 
754 posts, read 486,481 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camaro5 View Post
Very few presidents only last one term and if Clinton gets in should would have to be an absolute disaster not to win in 2020. That is entirely possible, and about what I expect, but she should win in 2020 anyway. She will make sure of it, one way or another.

I'm not sure anybody the Republican would run in 2020 would have much of a chance.
Oh please, the democrats would have been in power for 12 years by then, its what ultimately doomed Bush 41. People get tired of the same parties being in power and want something new, and democrats will be finding each subsequent election from now on more difficult to win.

The GOP should have won this won, but their brainless base threw up the most unelectable candidate in recent memory.

If the GOP throw up an electable candidate, there's every chance. Like Bush 41 she's not as popular as her predecessor.
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