Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
A post-convention bounce appears to have given Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton her biggest lead over Republican rival Donald Trump since June in our latest weekly White House Watch survey. This is the first update that includes both the Libertarian and Green Party candidates.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds Clinton with 44% support to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 40%. Six percent (6%) prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while three percent (3%) back Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.
All of these polls are 1,000 or so random people. Which is why i don't believe any of them. Unfortunately, they're the most reliable ones.
That's how statistics work. You don't need hundreds of thousands of people to get an accurate sample. 1000 is actually a very good number as long as it is truly random.
All of these polls are 1,000 or so random people. Which is why i don't believe any of them. Unfortunately, they're the most reliable ones.
Yes, and the margin of error is +/-3 and I could not find actual data like how many were of each party, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321
I believe in the polls and the polls show Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to win BIG in November! Yes!!!
Look beyond the headlines.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ant131531
That's how statistics work. You don't need hundreds of thousands of people to get an accurate sample. 1000 is actually a very good number as long as it is truly random.
If it was so very good, then why do the different polls vary the way they do. Also, I see the margin of error increasing. It also depends on whether the people are registered and/or likely voters, how many are interviewed from each party, etc. I see most that have Hillary ahead have contacted more Democrats. Those tiny details are either missing or hidden.
http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml More complicated than just making some phone calls. And, the people taking the surveys need to be recording the information correctly and making the calls and having someone actually pickup.
Yes, and the margin of error is +/-3 and I could not find actual data like how many were of each party, etc.
Look beyond the headlines.
If it was so very good, then why do the different polls vary the way they do. Also, I see the margin of error increasing. No, it really isn't "a very good number". It also depends on whether the people are registered and/or likely voters, how many are interviewed from each party, etc. I see most that have Hillary ahead have contacted more Democrats. Those tiny details are either missing or hidden.
Yes, and the margin of error is +/-3 and I could not find actual data like how many were of each party, etc.
Look beyond the headlines.
If it was so very good, then why do the different polls vary the way they do. Also, I see the margin of error increasing. No, it really isn't "a very good number". It also depends on whether the people are registered and/or likely voters, how many are interviewed from each party, etc. I see most that have Hillary ahead have contacted more Democrats. Those tiny details are either missing or hidden.
From the Rasmussen website:
"After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data. For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area."
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
