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Most counties failed to vote for the national electoral vote winner at least once in the last ten elections - but a few have managed to do so. Interested in hearing from residents of these counties (or those with significant exposure to the same, via friends/family, business etc.) regarding how you think they will vote this year!
I haven't listed all the counties, just the ones with about 100K population or greater. It will be interesting to revisit this after the election to see if they continue to support the winner. Note that in 2000, the electoral and popular vote outcomes were not aligned - since the electoral vote determines the president, all the bellwethers voted for Bush that year.
Bexar, TX - San Antonio
Buncombe, NC - Asheville
Merced, CA - Merced
Sandoval, NM - Rio Rancho/north Albuquerque metro area
Stanislaus, CA - Modesto
Vigo, IN - Terre Haute
I think that in a scenario where Clinton wins nationally by only a narrow margin, Vigo County could lose its bellwether status as it just barely voted for Obama in 2012. Vigo is less racially diverse so it is likely favored to trend more to the Republican side, especially with their outgoing governor as the VP candidate.
On the other hand, Buncombe has been getting increasingly liberal and NC appears to be a state where Democrats are making a very strong effort this year as there are also competitive governor and senate races. If Trump wins the presidency narrowly, Buncombe probably will remain Democratic, and thus no longer qualify as a bellwether.
My feeling is that the demographics in the other four counties (high Hispanic percentages) would make it very difficult for Trump to win those even if he prevails nationally.
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