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4 of the last 7 Florida polls listed on 538 have Trump winning. 538 now cast has Trump 50.7% to win the state.
Florida is the key....Trump has no real path of victory that doesn't start with winning Florida. To use a sports analogy, if Trump wins Florida, we have a ball game that will go into the 4th quarter.
Hillary will win FL by at least 5 or 6 points, maybe more if this holds true.
[URL="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303910-florida-poll-28-percent-of-gop-early-voters-picked"]Florida poll: 28 percent of GOP early voters picked Clinton[/URL]
Quote:
Originally Posted by American Expat
Florida is the key....Trump has no real path of victory that doesn't start with winning Florida. To use a sports analogy, if Trump wins Florida, we have a ball game that will go into the 4th quarter.
Maybe, but in red states like Arizona and Texas, Clinton is very close. That tells me she will clinch the blue states and probably do better in most swing states than Trump.
Maybe, but in red states like Arizona and Texas, Clinton is very close. That tells me she will clinch the blue states and probably do better in most swing states than Trump.
I don't think that's a correct assumption because Trump is not a traditional Republican and his appeal is broader than the traditional Republican but he also is going to lose many of the 'establishment Republicans' as well as the Mormons have abandoned him. Zona & Texas are trending blue due to demographics changes. Lastly, I doubt your Florida number so we'll just have to see who's right on election night.
Colorado Clinton +3
North Carolina Clinton +3
Pennsylvania Clinton +8
The race is really crystallizing. As long as Clinton wins two of these three, she's POTUS. Otherwise, she'll need to win Ohio or Florida.
It all depends on your poll data. For PA, if you believe the Franklin & Marshal polls; Clinton is ahead. But if you go to the Remington polls (http://20an0w2e66jla4rfm1idisr1.wpen...ase-103016.pdf) Clinton is only up by 2 on 30 October - it is within striking distance.
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