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Sorry but those photos are not "packed Johnson rallies."
The first one was from Liberty University, which has mandatory attendance at their morning convocation where he spoke. And the second one in Richmond was described by the press as having "hundreds of supporters." Not exactly an overwhelming crowd. Not that crowd size determines vote anyway, of course. But polls are a pretty good reflection and at this point, it's looking touch and go whether Johnson will even break that 5% bar in November. He's just not a great candidate - and since he's already said he won't run again, the LP should be strategically putting out some new faces that might be running in 2020, and get them into the national conversation.
......Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson appeared Monday before what may have been the largest crowd of his presidential campaign.....After presenting his campaign platform and taking questions, Johnson said he felt honored by the huge turnout and told the students, “Obviously you had the option to be here today.”
When Liberty Vice President David Nasser then informed him that “it’s mandatory,” a shocked Gary Johnson howled with laughter.
Nasser added, though, that students are allowed “a couple of skips a year, and they could have used that skip today.”
Johnson has done a pretty good job this year. He's had some embarrassing stumbles, but he's done well for a third party candidate.
We can compare 2012 to 2016
2012 ballot access 48+DC
2016 ballot access 50+DC
2012 he raised $2.5 million
2016 he will raise $10+, he's currently at $7.5 and has not reported October and none of his super pacs have reported there fundraising either.
2012 he had 300,000 Facebook likes
2016 he has 1.7 million, probably around 1.8 by Election Day.
2012 newspaper endorsements 0
2016 newspaper endorsements 7, Trump is at 0
The Libertarian Party has seen its donating membership raise by signicant numbers. The number of reporters at the Libertarian National Convention in 2012 was 25, in 2016 there were almost 250 reporters registered at the convention.
Most of the metrics have increased by at least a value of 5, if we convert that to votes, Johnson should get roughly 5%. I've been generous and think Johnson will get around 8% of the vote.
I don't think Johnson will win any state, or even take 2nd in any state. But I do believe he could win some counties, especially in the interior west. I think Johnson could also get 2nd in some counties in the Great Plains and will have a decent showing in Maine and New Hampshire.
Johnson has done a pretty good job this year. He's had some embarrassing stumbles, but he's done well for a third party candidate.
We can compare 2012 to 2016
2012 ballot access 48+DC
2016 ballot access 50+DC
2012 he raised $2.5 million
2016 he will raise $10+, he's currently at $7.5 and has not reported October and none of his super pacs have reported there fundraising either.
2012 he had 300,000 Facebook likes
2016 he has 1.7 million, probably around 1.8 by Election Day.
2012 newspaper endorsements 0
2016 newspaper endorsements 7, Trump is at 0
The Libertarian Party has seen its donating membership raise by signicant numbers. The number of reporters at the Libertarian National Convention in 2012 was 25, in 2016 there were almost 250 reporters registered at the convention.
Most of the metrics have increased by at least a value of 5, if we convert that to votes, Johnson should get roughly 5%. I've been generous and think Johnson will get around 8% of the vote.
I don't think Johnson will win any state, or even take 2nd in any state. But I do believe he could win some counties, especially in the interior west. I think Johnson could also get 2nd in some counties in the Great Plains and will have a decent showing in Maine and New Hampshire.
Interesting to see all of those numbers laid out, thanks for that. Sadly you have just done more work on any analysis for Gar Johnson as all of the annalists on all the major networks combined.
It's about time a Candidate will stand up to east Korea!
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