Is It Mathematically Possible to Lose Women By a Much Larger Margin Than You Win Men and Win the Election? (voters, polls)

[BajanYankee]

Some people say the polls are skewed. However, if the polls are even remotely close with respect to the gender divide, and Donald Trump loses women by a much larger margin than he wins men, would it still be possible for him to have the massive Election Day landslide victory some are predicting?

[Bureaucat]

Since women on average live longer than men, and make up a larger percentage of the general population, they also normally make up a majority of voters.

So unless men show up in high numbers at the polls while simultaneously keeping women from voting, the answer is a resounding no.

[War Beagle]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

Since women on average live longer than men, and make up a larger percentage of the general population, they also normally make up a majority of voters.

So unless men show up in high numbers at the polls while simultaneously keeping women from voting, the answer is a resounding no.

Hypothetical counterpoint is that the elderly are trumps biggest supporters and the gender divide isn't so stark in that demographic.

Still doubtful he can overcome the divide amongst younger women though.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by War Beagle

Hypothetical counterpoint is that the elderly are trumps biggest supporters and the gender divide isn't so stark in that demographic.

Still doubtful he can overcome the divide amongst younger women though.

So if he wins men, say, 57-43, but loses women 65-35, can he still win the election?

[War Beagle]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

So if he wins men, say, 57-43, but loses women 65-35, can he still win the election?

Doubtful. I believe I read that women tend to vote at higher rates then men.

[biscuitmom]

Everything's mathematically possible. But for this scenario to work, tens of millions of women who voted in the 2012 election would have to not vote this year.

It's more likely that Trump will choke to death on a cheeseburger.

[kat in aiken]

Originally Posted by War Beagle

Hypothetical counterpoint is that the elderly are trumps biggest supporters and the gender divide isn't so stark in that demographic.

Still doubtful he can overcome the divide amongst younger women though.

That is elderly men... not elderly women. And, there are more elderly women and elderly men in the US.

[kat in aiken]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

So if he wins men, say, 57-43, but loses women 65-35, can he still win the election?

I don't think you are allowing for males in the minority demographics, who really don't support trump very much.

[shellymdnv]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

So if he wins men, say, 57-43, but loses women 65-35, can he still win the election?

Yes it is mathematically possible as long as a significant portion of votes he doesn't get are going to a third party.

Let's assume that the number of men and women are equal and we say that there are 200 voters, then in your scenario, (men+14, women -30) Trump loses 108 votes to 92 if everyone votes and the votes go to only two candidates. If however he loses women by just more than he won men, in this case 58-42 (-16) then he would need 3 votes to go to a third party to win 99-98-3. If he loses women by 30 then he would need 17 votes or nearly 10% of the votes to go to a third party. Once you take into consideration the fact that women make up the majority of the electorate you would need a larger proportion of the votes to go to a third party and there is no indication that third party candidates are polling that high.

[dashrendar4454]

Either it is possible
Or he didn't lose women like the polls claimed he would