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The final electoral tally will be 322 for Hillary Clinton, 210 for Donald Trump, and 6 for Evan McMullin. Essentially, all states vote for the same party as in 2012 with the following exceptions:
*McMullin wins in UT (which was carried by Romney)
*Clinton wins in NC (which was also carried by Romney)
*Trump wins in IA, OH, & ME's Second Congressional District (which were all carried by Obama).
UT is the state that I am most unsure about. Because polls show Trump in the lead, I would not be surprised if he won that state. Obviously, I am assuming that these polls are incorrect and that Trump's massive unpopularity with Mormons will lead to a McMullin victory.
In the popular vote, Clinton gets about 45 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 40 percent. (The minor-party candidates will receive the remaining 15 percent.) Interestingly, should these predictions hold up, Trump would do better than Romney in the electoral college while losing the popular vote by a larger margin than Romney did.
I'm going with a beatdown. We will finally be able to put this nightmare of an election behind us. I have a feeling though that trumps bots won't go away quickly enough though.
Here's mine. I'm going to say Trump will surprisingly win in Michigan to go along with Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Maine 2nd district. While I give Hillary Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. .
Here's mine. I'm going to say Trump will surprisingly win in Michigan to go along with Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Maine 2nd district. While I give Hillary Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. .
Apart from UT, I think that it is possible for MI, NH, AZ, & GA to all surprise us on Election Night. In other words, given each state's demographics, a surprise Trump victory in MI or NH is possible, as is a surprise Clinton victory in AZ or GA. Regarding MI in particular, I fully remember how Sanders scored an unexpected victory over Clinton during the primaries, proving that the polls were way off.
IMO, NC will be the closest state tomorrow night, with Clinton scoring a narrow victory.
I'm gonna toss McMullin a bone though. Best chance any 3rd party candidate has had to win electoral votes in a long time. I haven't seen many great polls of Utah post Comeygate so Republicans might be a little more unified now, and a little less likely to protest. But I'd still love to see that happen.
Same as 2012 with NC & Iowa flipped. Ohio is the closest state.
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