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Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton is 'one state away' from losing Electoral College
Statistician Nate Silver warned on Sunday that Hillary Clinton's path to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House now appears narrower than President Barack Obama's path at this point in 2012.
Polls show Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with a slight edge in electoral college-heavy states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Fox News (not the Clinton News Network) just also came out that Clinton's EC numbers are not looking as rosy as they did just a few days ago despite having a lead in the popular vote.
I just checked & this doesn't jibe with his current map. He has her winning with New Hampshire and running up the score with Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. Unless the 'one state' is California I do not see her as that precarious.
I think he is over-cooking his poll adjustments to suit national trends. I think this is off because some states have more/less diverse populations than the nation as a whole and assuming Florida, Arizona and Ohio will act in the same manner is a stretch.
I just checked & this doesn't jibe with his current map. He has her winning with New Hampshire and running up the score with Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. Unless the 'one state' is California I do not see her as that precarious.
I think he is over-cooking his poll adjustments to suit national trends. I think this is off because some states have more/less diverse populations than the nation as a whole and assuming Florida, Arizona and Ohio will act in the same manner is a stretch.
As much as I tend to like Silver and usually consider him rational, I think this is the same phenomenon going on in the rest of the media. The longer the horse race goes on and the more uncertain things seem, the more traffic and $$ flow to these media outlets in the final hours.
The way people here admire and even worship Nate Silver and what he thinks is going to happen, I don't know why we even have to have an election. Just let Nate tell you how it's going to be. Think of the money and time this would save the country by not needing to have an election.
Nate knows everything and is never wrong.
As much as I tend to like Silver and usually consider him rational, I think this is the same phenomenon going on in the rest of the media. The longer the horse race goes on and the more uncertain things seem, the more traffic and $$ flow to these media outlets in the final hours.
well we only have 24 hours to wait and wonder: BTW what does his prediction have to do with money flowing to the media outlets at the last minute?
I think ALT means that the polling overall is spurring political campaigns to dump more late $ into 'tight' races. And mysteriously everything has tightened at the very end.
If I had to bet I think HRC pulls it out in NC but not Ohio with Florida falling somewhere between the two.
The way people here admire and even worship Nate Silver and what he thinks is going to happen, I don't know why we even have to have an election. Just let Nate tell you how it's going to be. Think of the money and time this would save the country by not needing to have an election.
Nate knows everything and is never wrong.
No kidding. A goofball who came from nowhere, guessed correctly a couple of times, and became the left's guide to the galaxy.
Talk about a nutty-looking guy. And to think they make fun of Trump's hair.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
well we only have 24 hours to wait and wonder: BTW what does his prediction have to do with money flowing to the media outlets at the last minute?
The person you quoted said "the same as", which is not "the same". S/he is making a comparison.
It's all about traffic, be it TV airwaves, internet bandwidth, whatever. The more traffic, the more hits, the more advertising revenue.
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