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We already have a thread in which we can post our presidential election predictions, so I figured it would be a good idea to start a thread in which we can post predictions for the down-ballot races. Here are my predictions:
*Although I am really not following the gubernatorial races closely, I will agree with Larry Sabato's final predictions in which he believes that Republicans will win in MO, ND, UT, & VT, while Democrats will be victorious in DE, IN, MT, NC, NH, OR, WA, & WV. This would mean that the party in power would change in IN, MO, NC, & VT, and that the current gubernatorial makeup of 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, & 1 Independent would remain the same.
*The GOP will retain control of the House, losing roughly 17 seats. Some notable GOP incumbents who will be defeated include Bob Dold (IL-10), Scott Garrett (NJ-05), and Darrell Issa (CA-49).
*Although this projection may be a bit too pessimistic, I believe that the next Senate will consist of 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. Republicans will win the hot Senate races in IN & MO, while NV will remain Democratic. Furthermore, the Democrats will net the following six seats: FL, IL, NC, NH, PA, & WI. Essentially, I am assuming that all nine of these states will vote for the same party for Senate as they do for President (which is why I think that Roy Blunt will be re-elected while Richard Burr, Joe Heck, and Marco Rubio will all be defeated).
Rubio is riding high here in Florida. I believe the Republicans will be able to hold their Senate majority.
Most Republicans I know will vote straight Republican ticket.
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