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Commentators seem to have decided that this is a wave sweeping politics in one direction, from Austria's re-run presidential election which Hofer is expected to win, through Brexit and Trump to acceptance in France that Le Pen could actually win. And the next stop, the AFD making big gains in Germany.
But how connected really are they?
Very has to be the answer, but in cause more than solution. There can be no doubt that similar discontent is the motor driving the reach for the outsiders everywhere. Immigration, industrial decline, aloof politicians. The same recipe.
Brexit, however is totally different to Trump. More rightwingers backed it than left, but there were many on the left who did also. The chair of the Leave campaign was a Labour MP and not only that, a German. She has a noticeable accent. Whilst immigration was a major concern, this did not extend to any other libertarian issues. Abortion is barely an issue here (save Northern Ireland). Hardly anyone wants to scrap gay marriage. Whilst I am furious over the result, my concerns are mainly economic - I don't feel any other threat (and I'm civil partnered).That said, it was the same demographic who made both Brexit and Trump actual things. Old, poorer, rural, run down towns, less well educated.
Trump certainly loves Brexit. He flew in to Scotland to water his golf course the morning after, and announced on getting out of his plane, that he was delighted to visit a country that had grasped the challenge. Nobody told him Scotland voted 60% remain. There appears to be a bromance between he and the ghastly Nigel Farage, and a lot of Trump's final punchlines were lifted straight from the Leave campaign. "Independence day", for example.
The solutions offered are, actually wildly different. Trump and Le Pen want to be very protectionist and use trade barriers as a major weapon. Brexiters want the complete opposite. There is a large body in that camp who propose dropping ALL trade tariffs to every country whether or not they reciprocate. Utterly insane, but popular. So the "left behind" brigade are united in wanting change. What they are voting for as a means, however, is very different.
They are both a response to immigration practices in their nation that negatively impacted the working class, and when those folks feeling the effects tried to express their concerns the politicans dismissed them as ignorant, racist bigots.
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They are both a response to immigration practices in their nation that negatively impacted the working class, and when those folks feeling the effects tried to express their concerns the politicans dismissed them as ignorant, racist bigots.
I definitely see the parallels. Democrats underestimated how much their support of Syrian refugees hurt them. I could easily see populist parties making huge gains all across Europe now.
Commentators seem to have decided that this is a wave sweeping politics in one direction, from Austria's re-run presidential election which Hofer is expected to win, through Brexit and Trump to acceptance in France that Le Pen could actually win. And the next stop, the AFD making big gains in Germany.
But how connected really are they?
Very has to be the answer, but in cause more than solution. There can be no doubt that similar discontent is the motor driving the reach for the outsiders everywhere. Immigration, industrial decline, aloof politicians. The same recipe.
Brexit, however is totally different to Trump. More rightwingers backed it than left, but there were many on the left who did also. The chair of the Leave campaign was a Labour MP and not only that, a German. She has a noticeable accent. Whilst immigration was a major concern, this did not extend to any other libertarian issues. Abortion is barely an issue here (save Northern Ireland). Hardly anyone wants to scrap gay marriage. Whilst I am furious over the result, my concerns are mainly economic - I don't feel any other threat (and I'm civil partnered).That said, it was the same demographic who made both Brexit and Trump actual things. Old, poorer, rural, run down towns, less well educated.
Trump certainly loves Brexit. He flew in to Scotland to water his golf course the morning after, and announced on getting out of his plane, that he was delighted to visit a country that had grasped the challenge. Nobody told him Scotland voted 60% remain. There appears to be a bromance between he and the ghastly Nigel Farage, and a lot of Trump's final punchlines were lifted straight from the Leave campaign. "Independence day", for example.
The solutions offered are, actually wildly different. Trump and Le Pen want to be very protectionist and use trade barriers as a major weapon. Brexiters want the complete opposite. There is a large body in that camp who propose dropping ALL trade tariffs to every country whether or not they reciprocate. Utterly insane, but popular. So the "left behind" brigade are united in wanting change. What they are voting for as a means, however, is very different.
No argument to lose. Analysis has proved the fact, here at least. The less well educated you are, the more likely to have voted Brexit.
Having encountered 2 (gay) Trump supporters from Grand Rapids in London a week before the election, I can only conclude the dynamic is the same, if they were typical.
That, however, is not the real point if you read what I was saying.
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