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Georgia has the potential to turn blue. Alot of university students in Georgia. Alot of Blacks and Hispanics moving to Georgia. Alot of people from outside of the South moving there.
However, there is something else to think about. Congressional districts and the political slant of those that move to Georgia. There are people who move to Georgia, BECAUSE the politics in Georgia are conservative compared to where they come from.
With congressional districts in Georgia, this is how it works. Metropolitan Atlanta might seem to be the logical swinger of votes. However, metro Atlanta alone will not do it. Consider this. Some parts of the metro area are in congressional districts that include the rural expanses of Georgia. Gwinnett County, the 2nd most populated county in Georgia, is in three difference congressional districts. One of those districts includes the entire northeast part of Georgia, where Appalachia begins. Gwinnett borders Fulton County(where Atlanta is located).
Paulding County is in a congressional district so large that parts of it border Tennessee and Alabama. Interesting thing is, Paulding is part of metro Atlanta, and it borders Cobb and Douglas counties.
Bartow and Cherokee counties both border Cobb County. Cobb County has a weird congressional split. Three districts are in Cobb County. The I-75 corridor of Cobb(where Acworth, Kennesaw and Marietta, and the Cumberland/Vinings area are located) is in the same congressional district as Bartow and Cherokee counties, despite not having that much in common with central/northwest Cobb County.
Georgia has many counties outside of metro Atlanta voting Democrat mainly because those particular counties are majority Black. One could count on demographics to push Georgia Democrat. However, if you look at the congressional districts, that really won't happen as quickly as you think. Out of 14 congressional districts, 4 are predominantly Black. 3 of them are in metropolitan Atlanta. The other one, 2, is in southwest Georgia/a small part of central GA, stretching from Columbus,GA to Macon, to the border with Florida/Alabama.
And here is another way districts can make things weird. North Carolina has multiple university cities. This is how Georgia works. Atlanta has multiple universities. The only legitimate university cities is Athens. Clarke County, where Athens is located, is split into two congressional districts. Both of those districts comprise of mainly rural areas.
In order for Georgia to turn blue, demographics could be a factor. But the bigger factor is congressional districts. With Georgia, there is still a strong racial divide in politics. You will most likely see this the further from Atlanta proper you go.
What's likely to hold Georgia and Texas in the Red column for longer than some might think is that as southern states, there is comparatively little variance between the white college and white non-college vote. In Georgia, Trump received about 75% of the total white vote and in Texas it was 69%. Whereas, nationally there was a 30% gap in support for Trump between college and non-college whites, it was less than half that much in GA and TX. Assuming that the voting patterns of the voting blocs remains the same, the red margins in GA and TX should continue to shrink as the white non-college vote falls off, but it's probably going to be 2028-2036 or so before either state is purple politically, let alone reliably blue.
Georgia has the potential to turn blue. Alot of university students in Georgia. Alot of Blacks and Hispanics moving to Georgia. Alot of people from outside of the South moving there.
However, there is something else to think about. Congressional districts and the political slant of those that move to Georgia. There are people who move to Georgia, BECAUSE the politics in Georgia are conservative compared to where they come from.
With congressional districts in Georgia, this is how it works. Metropolitan Atlanta might seem to be the logical swinger of votes. However, metro Atlanta alone will not do it. Consider this. Some parts of the metro area are in congressional districts that include the rural expanses of Georgia. Gwinnett County, the 2nd most populated county in Georgia, is in three difference congressional districts. One of those districts includes the entire northeast part of Georgia, where Appalachia begins. Gwinnett borders Fulton County(where Atlanta is located).
Paulding County is in a congressional district so large that parts of it border Tennessee and Alabama. Interesting thing is, Paulding is part of metro Atlanta, and it borders Cobb and Douglas counties.
Bartow and Cherokee counties both border Cobb County. Cobb County has a weird congressional split. Three districts are in Cobb County. The I-75 corridor of Cobb(where Acworth, Kennesaw and Marietta, and the Cumberland/Vinings area are located) is in the same congressional district as Bartow and Cherokee counties, despite not having that much in common with central/northwest Cobb County.
Georgia has many counties outside of metro Atlanta voting Democrat mainly because those particular counties are majority Black. One could count on demographics to push Georgia Democrat. However, if you look at the congressional districts, that really won't happen as quickly as you think. Out of 14 congressional districts, 4 are predominantly Black. 3 of them are in metropolitan Atlanta. The other one, 2, is in southwest Georgia/a small part of central GA, stretching from Columbus,GA to Macon, to the border with Florida/Alabama.
And here is another way districts can make things weird. North Carolina has multiple university cities. This is how Georgia works. Atlanta has multiple universities. The only legitimate university cities is Athens. Clarke County, where Athens is located, is split into two congressional districts. Both of those districts comprise of mainly rural areas.
In order for Georgia to turn blue, demographics could be a factor. But the bigger factor is congressional districts. With Georgia, there is still a strong racial divide in politics. You will most likely see this the further from Atlanta proper you go.
This is a great summary of the dynamics of Georgia's congressional districts.
After the 2020 census, from a strictly partisan perspective, Republicans may want to reconfigure the 6th and 7th districts in metro Atlanta as those are becoming more competitive. This could be accomplished by switching in more Republicans from nearby districts, like the 9th and 14th, which are drastically more Republican than is necessary to be a safe hold for the party. Having multiple districts that are consistently 60-65% Republican means there is less risk of any switching parties, compared to having a few districts at 75-80% and others at 50-55%. Of course with such engineering, the district lines are likely to become more contorted than ever.
It's also possible that the young and racially diverse influx into Georgia is helping to shift some other states where they migrate from, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, towards Republicans. If the large northern states are turning Republican faster than Georgia and other Sunbelt states transition toward Democrats, then the Democratic party isn't going to overcome their losses of 2016 any time soon.
This is a great summary of the dynamics of Georgia's congressional districts.
After the 2020 census, from a strictly partisan perspective, Republicans may want to reconfigure the 6th and 7th districts in metro Atlanta as those are becoming more competitive. This could be accomplished by switching in more Republicans from nearby districts, like the 9th and 14th, which are drastically more Republican than is necessary to be a safe hold for the party. Having multiple districts that are consistently 60-65% Republican means there is less risk of any switching parties, compared to having a few districts at 75-80% and others at 50-55%. Of course with such engineering, the district lines are likely to become more contorted than ever.
It's also possible that the young and racially diverse influx into Georgia is helping to shift some other states where they migrate from, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, towards Republicans. If the large northern states are turning Republican faster than Georgia and other Sunbelt states transition toward Democrats, then the Democratic party isn't going to overcome their losses of 2016 any time soon.
If the Democrats want to gain any headway, there would have to be some redrawing along these lines.
-Split the 1st district into two.
-Put all of Gwinnett County in the 6th district.
-Put all of Forsyth County and Hall County in the 7th district
-All of Clarke County in the 10th district and split that district into two.
-Divide the 3rd district into two.
It could shift PA and MI Republican. However, there is something else to consider. Alot of elderly could leave as well, seeking warmer climates and cheaper places to live. Many of the elderly relocating aren't just going to Georgia. South Carolina, Texas, places that are conservative, might attract more conservatives.
Another factor that comes with the elderly is death. As more old people die, that also decreases the population. A question is this. Who would be the most likely to stay in Michigan and Pennsylvania vs who is the most likely to leave?
What's likely to hold Georgia and Texas in the Red column for longer than some might think is that as southern states, there is comparatively little variance between the white college and white non-college vote. In Georgia, Trump received about 75% of the total white vote and in Texas it was 69%. Whereas, nationally there was a 30% gap in support for Trump between college and non-college whites, it was less than half that much in GA and TX. Assuming that the voting patterns of the voting blocs remains the same, the red margins in GA and TX should continue to shrink as the white non-college vote falls off, but it's probably going to be 2028-2036 or so before either state is purple politically, let alone reliably blue.
My theory about the college-educated vote stems from the younger college-educated persons. I am looking at millennials/late Gen-X to turn that tide the way it worked in North Carolina in 2008.
One thing about the White college-educated vote in Georgia is this. Clarke County(Athens,GA) is where UGA is located. I suspect with other states, there are more college towns per capita vs Georgia. North Carolina has Chapel Hill, Durham, Asheville, Raleigh, Winston-Salem. Georgia has Athens, where UGA is. And although Athens leans Democrat, UGA draws from alot of conservative areas. Atlanta has Georgia Tech, GA State and 4 HBCU's. However, Atlanta is a huge city, so, there you go.
When you look at Party Registration by State things look extremely grim for the Democrats. Basically every state since 2008 has either gotten more Republican or stayed the same. None of gotten more Democrat. Honestly I think that Ohio and Iowa are just going to be Red States from now
On. You add that with the gains Republicans have made in Florida and Pennsylvania and the GOP has a huge advantage now in the Electoral College.
It's also possible that the young and racially diverse influx into Georgia is helping to shift some other states where they migrate from, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, towards Republicans. If the large northern states are turning Republican faster than Georgia and other Sunbelt states transition toward Democrats, then the Democratic party isn't going to overcome their losses of 2016 any time soon.
Just to clarify the average age of a Democrat is like 40 and the average age of a Republican is like 45. Not that much difference at all. Especially when you look at all the college students who are Democrats skew it younger. Really most of those twenty somethingsWill become Republicans when they hit about 30 and move to the Suburbs.
But I do think that you are correct that Michigan and Pennsylvania aging might be helping make
These states more Conservative. This is a really good point you made
If the Democrats want to gain any headway, there would have to be some redrawing along these lines.
-Split the 1st district into two.
-Put all of Gwinnett County in the 6th district.
-Put all of Forsyth County and Hall County in the 7th district
-All of Clarke County in the 10th district and split that district into two.
-Divide the 3rd district into two.
Those changes could certainly benefit Democrats, but it is unlikely they would gain sufficient power in the Georgia legislature to implement such lines any time soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner
It could shift PA and MI Republican. However, there is something else to consider. Alot of elderly could leave as well, seeking warmer climates and cheaper places to live. Many of the elderly relocating aren't just going to Georgia. South Carolina, Texas, places that are conservative, might attract more conservatives.
Another factor that comes with the elderly is death. As more old people die, that also decreases the population. A question is this. Who would be the most likely to stay in Michigan and Pennsylvania vs who is the most likely to leave?
The dynamics of migration, death, and new voters coming into the electorate are pretty complex. In general people with more education and higher incomes are more likely to move between states. This demographic isn't necessarily either Republican or Democratic, but there was an article last year that Trump tended to get a high level of support from voters who had lived in the same area throughout their lives. Of the six states that shifted from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, five of these have a high proportion of stable, long term residents - and the sixth (Florida) has a lot of retirees from those other five states.
Liberal voters gravitating towards San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington DC, and a handful of other places are a major problem for the Democratic party in terms of national electoral politics. Their voters have become overly concentrated geographically and in being responsive to the most liberal parts of the nation, Democrats are losing alignment with too much of the remainder of America. There are certainly significant blue areas in red states, such as here in Georgia - but they aren't large enough to reach a statewide majority at this point.
Just to clarify the average age of a Democrat is like 40 and the average age of a Republican is like 45. Not that much difference at all. Especially when you look at all the college students who are Democrats skew it younger. Really most of those twenty somethingsWill become Republicans when they hit about 30 and move to the Suburbs.
But I do think that you are correct that Michigan and Pennsylvania aging might be helping make
These states more Conservative. This is a really good point you made
People do tend to become more conservative as they get older, but the younger generations are getting married, achieving relatively stable careers, and buying houses at later ages than in the past. If such milestones help push people in a Republican direction, this process is getting delayed for many younger voters these days.
As my other post states, the Democrats have a problem with the distribution of their voters. Too many are gravitating towards a limited number of big cities, which are very divergent from the rest of the nation in many respects.
What's likely to hold Georgia and Texas in the Red column for longer than some might think is that as southern states, there is comparatively little variance between the white college and white non-college vote. In Georgia, Trump received about 75% of the total white vote and in Texas it was 69%. Whereas, nationally there was a 30% gap in support for Trump between college and non-college whites, it was less than half that much in GA and TX. Assuming that the voting patterns of the voting blocs remains the same, the red margins in GA and TX should continue to shrink as the white non-college vote falls off, but it's probably going to be 2028-2036 or so before either state is purple politically, let alone reliably blue.
By then, 12-24 more EC votes shift blue to red via the census (twice).
Those changes could certainly benefit Democrats, but it is unlikely they would gain sufficient power in the Georgia legislature to implement such lines any time soon.
The dynamics of migration, death, and new voters coming into the electorate are pretty complex. In general people with more education and higher incomes are more likely to move between states. This demographic isn't necessarily either Republican or Democratic, but there was an article last year that Trump tended to get a high level of support from voters who had lived in the same area throughout their lives. Of the six states that shifted from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, five of these have a high proportion of stable, long term residents - and the sixth (Florida) has a lot of retirees from those other five states.
Liberal voters gravitating towards San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington DC, and a handful of other places are a major problem for the Democratic party in terms of national electoral politics. Their voters have become overly concentrated geographically and in being responsive to the most liberal parts of the nation, Democrats are losing alignment with too much of the remainder of America. There are certainly significant blue areas in red states, such as here in Georgia - but they aren't large enough to reach a statewide majority at this point.
U think this is a very intelligent response. I think you are correct. I would also like to add that Pennsylvania has become noticeably more Republican in the last 8 years. I really feel like it's going to be a Red leaning state moving forward.
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