SurveyUSA: Ossoff 51% Handel 44% in GA Special (voters, democratic, Republican, poll)

[Bureaucat]

This one might go down to the wire. According to this poll, Ossoff is getting twice as many Tom Price voters as Karen Handel is getting of D voters that voted against Price.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #23518

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

This one might go down to the wire. According to this poll, Ossoff is getting twice as many Tom Price voters as Karen Handel is getting of D voters that voted against Price.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #23518

I would have more faith in his win if t wasnt Summer, college kids have gone home

[mrpeatie]

We'll see who actually shows up to the polls. But this might be a case of a jungle primary putting a dominant party at a disadvantage. Ossoff had 90%+ of Dem support and the R vote was split several ways. Handel was a contentious candidate in previous runs so she might never have even been the R consensus candidate- but simply the one with the most dedicated slice of the larger primary pie.


IIRC- a couple of years ago two Rs notched 1st and 2nd because the Dems had twenty people running for a seat in California. It wasn't a R district but the Rs had the two highest primary totals in round 1.

[banjomike]

This isn't the only special election where a Democrat is leading.
In Montana, Democrat Rob Quist is now ahead of his opponent Greg Gianforte by 7 points in a 3-way race as of Monday the 22nd.

Quist 48%, Gianforte 41%, and Libertarian Mark Wicks 11%. The Quist-Gianforte numbers exactly reversed from the last poll, that had Gianforte at 48% and Quist at 41%.

Neither have held office before. This is Qust's first race, while Gianforte lost a 2016 bid for Governor to Democrat Steve Bullock.

[Clarallel]

Thanks! I hadn't been keeping up.

[jas75]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

I would have more faith in his win if t wasnt Summer, college kids have gone home

This district doesn't have many college students living on campuses. It is basically a middle to high income suburban part of the Atlanta area, where students are likely to return home to their family residence for the summer from elsewhere.

I would be very surprised if Ossoff ends up winning given the Republican history of the district, but he seems to be outperforming the area's traditional Democratic baseline which is closer to 40%.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by jas75

This district doesn't have many college students living on campuses. It is basically a middle to high income suburban part of the Atlanta area, where students are likely to return home to their family residence for the summer from elsewhere.

I would be very surprised if Ossoff ends up winning given the Republican history of the district, but he seems to be outperforming the area's traditional Democratic baseline which is closer to 40%.

I believe New Republic did a story on this, there are 3 colleges in the district with 60,000 total students.

in a special election where every single vote will count, the 10,000 on campus students will matter.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

I believe New Republic did a story on this, there are 3 colleges in the district with 60,000 total students.

in a special election where every single vote will count, the 10,000 on campus students will matter.

Emory is one of the universities if I am correct.

Less than half of the Emory students are from Ga. and could vote in the election anyway, most vote in their home districts.

I don't think there are 60k college students as the 4 other big schools in Atlanta are not in the 6th.

[blanker]

"SurveyUSA"? Now there's a fine, trustworthy institution.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by banjomike

This isn't the only special election where a Democrat is leading.
In Montana, Democrat Rob Quist is now ahead of his opponent Greg Gianforte by 7 points in a 3-way race as of Monday the 22nd.

Quist 48%, Gianforte 41%, and Libertarian Mark Wicks 11%. The Quist-Gianforte numbers exactly reversed from the last poll, that had Gianforte at 48% and Quist at 41%.

Neither have held office before. This is Qust's first race, while Gianforte lost a 2016 bid for Governor to Democrat Steve Bullock.

wow! that's great news I hadn't seen any polling on that one,thanks for sharing