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Texas is joining the list shortly, believe it or not. Trump only won by single digits and his moronic behavior is not helping. We still have a thriving economy, and a lot of educated people moving from all over the country, the world. Yep, things are very slowly changing.
As a Texan, I agree that the state may become a 'swing' state in future.
As a subsequent poster noted, Mr. Trump beat Ms. Clinton 52.23 percent to 43.24 percent.
2008: Senator McCain defeated newcomer Obama 55.39 percent to 43.63 percent.
2004: Incumbent and Texan President Bush beat Senator Kerry 61.09 percent to 38.22 percent.
2000: Mr. Bush defeated Mr. Gore 59.3 percent to 38.0 percent.
For a 'hated liberal' like Ms. Clinton to stay within 10 percent of "Right Wing Trump" in Texas was rather astonishing.
Plus, as a bonus, I have previously noted that during the Presidential Texas primary election, Senator Cruz defeated second place Mr. Trump by 43.76 percent versus 26.75 percent. I had written way back when that it was a rather crummy showing by Mr. Cruz, being a Texan, being unable to reach even 50 percent.
Hence, Mr. Cruz is, or should be, slightly worried about his chances of re-election in November 2018.
2008: Senator McCain defeated newcomer Obama 55.39 percent to 43.63 percent.
2004: Incumbent and Texan President Bush beat Senator Kerry 61.09 percent to 38.22 percent.
2000: Mr. Bush defeated Mr. Gore 59.3 percent to 38.0 percent.
For a 'hated liberal' like Ms. Clinton to stay within 10 percent of "Right Wing Trump" in Texas was rather astonishing.
Plus, as a bonus, I have previously noted that during the Presidential Texas primary election, Senator Cruz defeated second place Mr. Trump by 43.76 percent versus 26.75 percent. I had written way back when that it was a rather crummy showing by Mr. Cruz, being a Texan, being unable to reach even 50 percent.
Hence, Mr. Cruz is, or should be, slightly worried about his chances of re-election in November 2018.
Looking at Cruz's performance against Trump in TX primary as a weakness against Cruz's reelection chances shows a poor understanding of the Trump wave/appeal. Also, Trump's margins in Texas will only increase in 2020 once more Republicans come home after realizing that Trump, while unconventionally spoken, isn't going anything to ruin the world. Remember, the left predicted that "demographic shifts" would see Romney lose Texas by a closer margin than McCain won Texas by. Instead, Romeny improved on McCain's performance. The problem for Dems in Texas is that 80% of non-Hispanic white voters back the GOP, while up to 40% of Latino voters do as well. I'm curious, were you also predicting a Wendy Davis victory or "close race?"
1. Trump did not expand his base. He double-downed on it.
2. The primary groups in the Trump coalition (non-college whites and white evangelicals) will grow weaker with each POTUS election because their percentage of total registered voters will lessen with each election, not only nationally but in every state, because they are disproportionately older voters. The rate of change varies, but not change itself.
3. In order to continue winning for the long term, Republicans/Conservatives/Nationalists/fill in the blank, will have to hope for some combination of the following: (a.) hope that the difference in voting patterns between white college and white non-college voters disappears with the development of a solidly conservative white voter bloc, (b.) that the Hispanic voter bloc splinters with large numbers identifying as “white” and conservative, or (c.) that minority voters as a whole begin to desert the Democrats If a, b or c do not occur, they must hope that minorities just don’t vote. If there isn’t a systemic change, with each election, they will be more dependent on the other guys not showing up, and less on turning out their base, because the base groups are shrinking because they are overly dependent on the elder voter and their ranks won’t be replaced unless they score better with other groups.
The percentage of total white voter decline of the total vote lessened in 2016, due to stronger than usual white non-college turnout and weaker black turnout, but the normal rate of change over the past 20 years or so can be stated as “-3+1+2”.
On average, the percentage of total votes cast by white non-college voter declines 3% nationally from the previous Presidential election. Non-college whites supported Trump by +37 percent in 2016. The +1 represents white college grads who voted R+3 percent. The +2% represents total minorities who favored Clinton by 53%.
It can be done, but unless the underlying demographics of the opposing parties change, the odds against a repeat of 2016 will grow with every 4 year cycle simply because of the math.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 10-04-2017 at 12:16 PM..
Looking at Cruz's performance against Trump in TX primary as a weakness against Cruz's reelection chances shows a poor understanding of the Trump wave/appeal. Also, Trump's margins in Texas will only increase in 2020 once more Republicans come home after realizing that Trump, while unconventionally spoken, isn't going anything to ruin the world. Remember, the left predicted that "demographic shifts" would see Romney lose Texas by a closer margin than McCain won Texas by. Instead, Romeny improved on McCain's performance. The problem for Dems in Texas is that 80% of non-Hispanic white voters back the GOP, while up to 40% of Latino voters do as well. I'm curious, were you also predicting a Wendy Davis victory or "close race?"
While I supported Ms. Davis, I do not recall thinking that she had a reasonable chance of winning. I am a pragmatic person, and try to not let 'emotions' overrule my thinking and using reason.
Back in 2016, after the Texas presidential primary, I explained why Mr. Cruz's showing was poor, given that he was a sitting Texas Senator (favorite son, if you will). If I can find that explanation, I shall repost it herein.
As to whether Mr. Trump's margin of victory will increase in 2020: only time will tell.
My post, above, shows that the margin of victory in Texas, for Republican Presidential nominees, has rather steadily decreased since 2000. Again, Ms. Clinton was not popular in Texas, yet in November 2016 Mr. Trump prevailed by only some 8.9 percent. If (and it is a bit if) the Democrats were to field someone with more personal appeal, and without the baggage carried by Ms. Clinton, I still think the Republican (Trump or whomever) will win Texas, but perhaps by an even smaller percentage. It may not be until 2028 that Texas becomes a swing state.
It’s possible that Trump will be re-elected, but:
1. Trump did not expand his base. He double-downed on it.
2. The primary groups in the Trump coalition (non-college whites and white evangelicals) will grow weaker with each POTUS election because their percentage of total registered voters will lessen with each election, not only nationally but in every state, because they are disproportionately older voters. The rate of change varies, but not change itself.
.
(1) 304 - no need to add to it.
(2) LOL. Red Wall has HUGE margins, plus Rust Belt is amongst nation's slowest changing regions.
Dems need to bend down and do the political equivalent of kissing the deplorables feet. Beg for forgiveness.
Texas is joining the list shortly, believe it or not. Trump only won by single digits and his moronic behavior is not helping. We still have a thriving economy, and a lot of educated people moving from all over the country, the world. Yep, things are very slowly changing.
Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota will become solid red before Texas is even considered a swing state.
Demographics won’t necessarily save the Democrats, but unless they expand their appeal, it will eventually doom the Trump wing of the GOP. The only variable is time: not decades, but probably by 2028-2032 at the latest. Republicans could win nationally after that date, but only with a different coalition than exists today.
Hispanics don't vote as a bloc. Also, the longer Hispanic families are here, the more "Americanized" they become. Culturally, 2nd and 3rd generation Mexican-Americans are fully assimilated in American culture.
Hispanics don't vote as a bloc. Also, the longer Hispanic families are here, the more "Americanized" they become. Culturally, 2nd and 3rd generation Mexican-Americans are fully assimilated in American culture.
I guess it depends on what you consider a bloc.
Results from 2016 by race:
Blacks: D 89% R 8% (D edge since 1936)
Hispanics: D 66% R 28% (D edge since at least 1960)
Asians: D 65% R 27% (D for last 3 elections)
Other race: D 56% R 36%
White non-Hisp: R 57% D 37%
White college: R 48% D 45%
White non-college: R 66% D 29%
Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota will become solid red before Texas is even considered a swing state.
So it is not likely to happen anytime soon?
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