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Despite what the Trump cult believes, it's unlikely that he is re-elected in 2020. Why? Simple math. He only barely won the electoral college in 2016. While he is still as popular with his base as he ever was, he hasn't gained any supporters. Meanwhile, two thirds of the country is getting fed up and will be far more motivated to get out and vote next time than they were in 2016. It wouldn't surprise me if 2020 looks like Obama/McCain with some surprise blue states.
Despite what the Trump cult believes, it's unlikely that he is re-elected in 2020. Why? Simple math. He only barely won the electoral college in 2016. While he is still as popular with his base as he ever was, he hasn't gained any supporters. Meanwhile, two thirds of the country is getting fed up and will be far more motivated to get out and vote next time than they were in 2016. It wouldn't surprise me if 2020 looks like Obama/McCain with some surprise blue states.
But it depends heavily on the candidate
Most of the names being thrown out (Elizabeth Warren, Kampala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrahd) will likely do poor outside of the coasts
and you're forgetting the main thing, everyone already threw everything and the kitchen sink against Trump the first time around. So what are you going to tell us about him that we don't already know? Ue the Access Hollywood tape again? Say he called Rosie O'Donnell a fat pig again? Basically the election will boil down to how the country is doing, so Dems better hope for a recession
and you're forgetting the main thing, everyone already threw everything and the kitchen sink against Trump the first time around. So what are you going to tell us about him that we don't already know? Ue the Access Hollywood tape again? Say he called Rosie O'Donnell a fat pig again? Basically the election will boil down to how the country is doing, so Dems better hope for a recession
It doesn't matter. If you voted for Trump in 2016 and still support him, you likely will vote for him again in 2020 and nothing can change your mind. On the flipside, it's unlikely that very many people who voted for Clinton in 2016 will be voting for Trump this next time around. A lot of people also thought Hillary was inevitable so they just stayed home in 2016. This won't be the case in 2020. Even if it's somebody like Warren (which is doubtful) she definitely wouldn't be any worse than Hillary.
Despite what the Trump cult believes, it's unlikely that he is re-elected in 2020. Why? Simple math. He only barely won the electoral college in 2016. While he is still as popular with his base as he ever was, he hasn't gained any supporters. Meanwhile, two thirds of the country is getting fed up and will be far more motivated to get out and vote next time than they were in 2016. It wouldn't surprise me if 2020 looks like Obama/McCain with some surprise blue states.
See Bush vs. Kerry, 2004.
Older voters like Trump.
Older voters show up on election day.
Obama won because blacks voted in record numbers for the black candidate.
Nothing about that should shock anyone that has lived in America for length of time.
Obama is not running in 2020, so black turn-out will be at pre-Obama levels just as it was in 2016.
Furthermore, the anti-Trump Republicans have either rejoined the fold or dropped out of politics altogether.
As for McCain, he was a retread in 2008.
If he were anyone to recon with, he would have already won in 2000.
As is, he had to throw a hail Mary by selecting a virtually unknown Governor in order to get a female on the ticket.
Conservatives yawned and wondered why Governor Palin wasn't the top of the ticket.
If Democrats can find another relatively unknown African-American to run, they might have a shot in 2020.
Short of that, it's hard to not see a Trump second term.
It doesn't matter. If you voted for Trump in 2016 and still support him, you likely will vote for him again in 2020 and nothing can change your mind. On the flipside, it's unlikely that very many people who voted for Clinton in 2016 will be voting for Trump this next time around. A lot of people also thought Hillary was inevitable so they just stayed home in 2016. This won't be the case in 2020. Even if it's somebody like Warren (which is doubtful) she definitely wouldn't be any worse than Hillary.
Democratic voters stayed home, but it wasn't because they thought Hillary was a shoe-in.
The Democratic voters that stayed home were blacks (down 7% from 2012) and they stayed home because Obama wasn't running.
With Obama out of the picture, black voter participation returned to pre-Obama levels.
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