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"If you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldn’t have hesitated before answering, “It’s early, but Democrats are heavily favored, although conventional wisdom has been very slow to catch up.” With a raft of GOP retirements in highly vulnerable open seats, a president with job approval ratings in the 30s, and a generic ballot lead for Democrats in the double digits, it was increasingly difficult to spell out a path to victory for Republicans. In fact, things were bad enough that it appeared their losses could grow into the 40 or even 50 seat range.
Things have changed. If the election were held today, it’s not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now – and it is still early – the House is likely to be close."
What if anything positive are Democrats offering? Impeachment promises a drawn out political nightmare. Democrats also want to raise our taxes and stop this growing economy dead in its tracks. They've abandoned the white vote and taken up identity politics with a vengeance. I suspect most people are thinking who needs this nonsense.
This is what the Democrats offer: Return to Government Accountability, respect for the Constitution and rule of law, fiscal sanity, environmental protections, and a check on a rogue White House.
This is just a few benefits.
What do you get with Republicans?
More corruption, More swamp, More insanity, More debt, More environmental degradation, More Constitutional crisis.
Things have changed. If the election were held today, it’s not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now – and it is still early – the House is likely to be close."
But the election is more than 5 months in the future.
This is what the Democrats offer: Return to Government Accountability, respect for the Constitution and rule of law, fiscal sanity, environmental protections, and a check on a rogue White House.
This is just a few benefits.
Seriously dude? I realize we have different political realities but some of you sound like you've completely ignored what's been going on for the last year.
Seriously dude? I realize we have different political realities but some of you sound like you've completely ignored what's been going on for the last year.
And what has been going on in the last year that should change my view?
Seriously dude? I realize we have different political realities but some of you sound like you've completely ignored what's been going on for the last year.
It's why pundits are now flipping the script from a few months ago.
This is what the Democrats offer: Return to Government Accountability, respect for the Constitution and rule of law, fiscal sanity, environmental protections, and a check on a rogue White House.
This is just a few benefits.
What do you get with Republicans?
More corruption, More swamp, More insanity, More debt, More environmental degradation, More Constitutional crisis.
Respect for the Constitution as in trying to end run around the 2nd Amendment as we've seen in New York and California?
Fiscal sanity as in wanting to spend billions on other countries while ignoring our problems here at home?
Environmental protections as in pushing electric cars and hybrids that use batteries that require environmental devastation as part of the manufacturing process?
Government accountability and checks on a rogue White House - not even worth addressing at this point. The Obama admin was the least transparent we've had in my lifetime and exemplified the term "rogue."
Seriously dude? I realize we have different political realities but some of you sound like you've completely ignored what's been going on for the last year.
Year? Try years. Prime evidence: college campuses and the free speech issue. NO free speech allowed. Only "approved" speech allowed.
I think Trende's piece is a great reality check for those expecting a "blue wave" midterm election to be inevitable. The current political climate will not necessarily hold until November, but with their unfavorable geographic distribution of voters, Democrats will likely need a significant lead on the generic ballot to capture either House, and what they have now may not be enough.
We are in a phase of the election cycle where both parties, but particularly Democrats as they have fewer House incumbents, are still in the process of choosing their nominees. It's possible that as the party nominees are finalized that they will better consolidate support. Or maybe the relatively strong economy, the White House's valiant efforts towards peacemaking around the world while prioritizing "America first", and the public's fatigue with what some say are politically motivated investigations are the most important factors, so Republicans will have no problem holding onto the House.
It really all depends on which side has the will to show up and convince just enough persuadable voters in the key districts this fall. My guess as of today (with very low confidence) is Democrats will gain 10-15 House seats, not enough to flip the chamber.
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