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Trump has lost Independent voters. He’s underwater by double digits with them in approval. Republicans can’t win without a majority of Independents. He must win them back by 2020 or at least break even with them to have a reasonable shot at re-election.
You are dreaming, I and many other independent voters that I know will vote for Trump again simply because of the insanity going on within the left politicians, the more insanity they show, the more it pushes me to vote for Trump, when I had been hoping the left would put up a decent candidate that I could vote for but no more, I now know there is NO hope whatsoever for the dem party to regain their sanity, with the daily examples they display of being for everyone but Americans. When was the last time we saw the dems say God Bless America or even display their love for our country and all Americans, they never will, they only love those on the left.
You are dreaming, I and many other independent voters that I know will vote for Trump again simply because of the insanity going on within the left politicians, the more insanity they show, the more it pushes me to vote for Trump, when I had been hoping the left would put up a decent candidate that I could vote for but no more, I now know there is NO hope whatsoever for the dem party to regain their sanity, with the daily examples they display of being for everyone but Americans. When was the last time we saw the dems say God Bless America or even display their love for our country and all Americans, they never will, they only love those on the left.
“You and many” anecdotal evidence isn’t the same as hard data. From your attachment, you’re not a swing voter either.
1. Trump has fantastic support among self-identified Republicans (87%)
2. But the percentage of self-identified Republicans has dropped from about 29% to 26% of the electorate.
From the latest Quinnipiac Poll on Donald Trump’s Job Approval
Support from Republicans: Approve 82% Disapprove 15%
Support from Democrats: Approve 7% Disapprove 92% Support from Independents: Approve 32% Disapprove 61%
Here’s an excerpt from a column from Jennifer Rubin, which is from January 2018, but still relevant.
Quote:
With this in mind, Trump’s poll numbers look much more daunting for him and the GOP. He continues to get about 80 percent of the GOP vote (27 percent of the electorate). But that amounts to a meager 21.6 percent of the electorate as a whole. By playing to his narrow base, ..........demonstrating abject contempt for our democratic system and pushing through a highly unpopular tax bill, Trump is turning off the vast majority of voters. Those Republicans who now cling ever closer to Trump are only compounding their electoral problems.
Trump has a smaller, more cohesive choir, but he has never had the support of a majority of the American people. He’s doubled down on pleasing his base, which demographically is shrinking due to aging by about 3% of registered voters nationally every four years.
He could win in 2020, but it won’t be an easy feat because his base is too narrow for that to be likely at all. He’ll probably have to depend on winning in the electoral college. Thus far in our history, only one candidate was elected to a second term after winning a first term in the E.C. while losing the national popular vote; George W. Bush in 2004, and even that wasn’t “easy” since he won Ohio by about 100,000 and needed that state to win in the electoral college.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-31-2018 at 10:41 AM..
i think not, just wondering where the cogent plan is to defeat Donald Trump in 2020.
It’s a little early to map out a plan with over two years to go, but here’s some thoughts.
1. Focus on two groups that you need. You need a ticket that both enthuses your base voters while reassuring swing voters, so think of tickets that might do both.
Some examples might be Joe Biden/Kamala Harris or Sherrod Brown/Cory Booker.
2. Don’t chase the Trump hard-core; they’re not going to switch and pandering to them costs you votes with other groups.
3. Trade will probably be a bigger issue than immigration for the voters that the D’s will need. Support free trade over Trump's de facto consumer tax. More voters will be adversely affected by a trade war than those that benefit from it. The battle will be won or lost in the suburbs of our Metro areas.
4. Do not start impeachment proceedings if the Democrats win the House in 2018. Use the power of the gavel to hold hearings as justified as new findings emerge, but avoid the temptation of jumping the gun. Let Mueller do his job. If Trump tries to stop the Mueller investigation, it’s a different story.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 07-31-2018 at 11:05 AM..
He could win in 2020, but it won’t be an easy feat because his base is too narrow for that to be likely at all. He’ll probably have to depend on winning in the electoral college.
Please, tell us how else he could win the Presidency.
It’s a little early to map out a plan with over two years to go, but here’s some thoughts.
1. Focus on two groups that you need. You need a ticket that both enthuses your base voters while reassuring swing voters, so think of tickets that might do both.
Some examples might be Joe Biden/Kamala Harris or Sherrod Brown/Cory Booker.
Finally we're getting some somewhat clear answers. So what would those potential tickets run on to appeal to swing voters?
Quote:
3. Trade will probably be a bigger issue than immigration for the voters that the D’s will need. Support free trade over Trump's de facto consumer tax. More voters will be adversely affected by a trade war than those that benefit from it. The battle will be won or lost in the suburbs of our Metro areas.
How will Democrats support "free trade" when they never have in the past and they're fighting against getting closer to it now?
Please, tell us how else he could win the Presidency.
A President has won the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote exactly 5 times in 58 Presidential Elections. A situation where a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote is such an aberration from the norm, it’s referred to as a “misfire”. Of the previous four Presidents elected by such a “misfire” only Bush in 2004 won re-election.
As compared to what we currently have, they already are.
The most popular Democrat name in the media today is proudly running on a socialist platform and can't handle simple math while claiming to be a master of economics. You're going to be really upset when 2020 rolls around if that's your plan.
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