Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
In TN, unless the Democrat consistently polls above 50%, I'm not too worried; the Dem is polling around 44% on average, which is not sufficient in a heavily GOP leaning state. I see this state similar to how many Texas polls are, where the Dem holds a lead initially, but can never get above 50% in polls (many voters are "undecided" but lean conservative/Republican and end up breaking that way as the campaign goes on). Things don't turn out well for Dems ultimately.
I see the same thing happening with Arizona, although this is more of a wildcard than TN as AZ is more competitive in general than TN is.
NV is the only real/serious pickup opportunity I see going Dems' way.
As for the GOP, I see a pickup in MO as a "sure thing" only; Clair Mc. has been lucky in the past, but I note that her most recent elections she's drawn the GOP candidate that she wanted (not the establishment GOP candidate who was not prone to put his foot in his mouth). That's not the case that she's dealing with here.
Claire is going to benefit from the governors resignation. Her opponent the current attorney general cut him a deal so he avoided criminal charges of blackmail.
FL can go either way, but I note that Scott's popularity and money will make this interesting to watch.
I'm not convinced that the GOP will pickup North Dakota or Indiana, especially if both those D senators end up voting for Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. All in all, I see the GOP either maintaining or building upon their majority by one seat.
The major difference between Tennessee & Texas is Phil Bredesen is a former 2 term governor of the state who won 2 state wide races in 2002 & 2006. Marsha Blackburn has never run a state wide race, let alone beat anybody in a state wide race, she is in a very red district & outside of the primaries has never had to campaign. Contrast this to Bredesen who has had two bare knuckle fights to win the governorship. Also he is highly liked by the states business community & a lot of republican state wide leaders, while Blackburn isn't. There are a lot of state politics in play here, latest poll has Bredesen ahead by six, & while he isn't above 50%, Blackburn hasn't broken 40% in multiple polls.
In Arizona McSally should win the GOP nomination but is widely known & behind 5 to Sinema. We should see some better polls after the primary.
For the few Pollyannas who insist that there will be a Red Wave that will actually increase the number of Republican House seats, here’s the reality. With their success in the last few elections, the Republicans already hold most of the low hanging fruit.
According to the latest rankings by Cook Political Report, there are only 14 current Democrat House seats ranked less than safe. How many Republicans considered less than safe? 86
Seats needed to flip control? 23
Here's your basic problem which has been your basic problem with every theory you post here about how the Democrats are going to win back position:
Why would anyone in these districts vote for a Democrat?
How dare you try to instill reality to right wingers, they are only to be fed a heavy dose of delusions and
Bull s**t by faux, I mean, fox network, come november when democrats regain power we will hear the orange moron say it was "rigged and unfair"....
Yup, it will be rigged by Putin, the same man who admits on live TV in Helsinki that he prefers tRump over Hillary.
"I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election. Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 24, 2018"
So he's now admits "Russian meddling" is a thing, but is concerned that Putin will rig the election in favor of the Dems? Does he believe we are all morons? Oh, no wait, he only believes his supporters are morons.
So point is, even the Democrats can't say why anyone would vote for them except that they are not Republican.
Gonna be a bad day for Democrats come Nov. Of course if they net even 1 single seat, they and the MSM will proclaim that it's a major victory for them.
In my opinion, it would be an upset for the Dems not to take back the House - and that's with the knowledge that due to gerrymandering, a 1% or 2% win nationally still doesn't equate to taking back the majority in the House. Winning some seats but still being the minority will be a big disappointment. If I had to put money down on an over/under - I'd say they win by 3% but only have a 6-seat majority.
As for the Senate, I'd still say that's nearly pipe dream status - nearly.
Democrats need two pickups to take back the Senate, but the Senate map is not in their favor (2016 was in their favor but it didn't pan out).
For the most part, 48 Republican seats are already spoken for. Of those 48, the one in most danger is Ted Cruz and he currently leads by 8.5 points (as per RealClearPolitics). In all likelihood, he holds that seat - Republicans are at 48 before we even get to toss-up seats and seats that Democrats are defending in "red territory"
Let's talk about Democrats in red states first - these would all be holds that the Democrats need:
Nelson in FL ; polls tied
Donnelly in IN ; no recent polling data
McCaskill in MO ; polls tied
Heitkamp in ND ; polls tied
Tester in MT ; in latest poll up by 3
Manchin in WV; in latest poll up by 7
Pensler in MI ; state went to Trump in 2016
Casey in PA ; state went to Trump (incumbent holds wide lead at the moment in polls)
Baldwin in WI ; state went to Trump (incumbent holds wide lead at the moment in polls)
Brown in OH ; state went to Trump (incumbent holds wide lead at the moment in polls)
So those are holds in state that all went to Trump. I left out some.
These are the only realizable "pickups" that Democrats can make:
AZ - Flake retiring ; poll numbers from late June indicate Democrat is leading, but Republican candidate is unknown yet. Also, state was won by Trump in 2016
NV - Heller ; polls tied. Clinton won the state in 2016
TN - Corker retiring ; Democrat leading in polls - Trump won the state in 2016
Ok, so let me break this down. Democrats have only 3 possible "flips" (AZ, NV and TN). Two of those could be considered unfriendly waters (Trump states in 2016). They need 2 of those 3 assuming that they lose zero of the races listed above (FL, IN, MO, ND, MT, WV, MI, PA, WI, OH) - all of those were states that voted for Trump in 2016. The only one of those states that voted for Clinton was NV... where they are tied in those polls.
What's more... 3 of those "hold" races are mere coin flips right now (FL, MO, ND).
Let's be really optimistic and say that IN, MT, WV, MI, PA, WI, OH all break the Democrats way. That leaves 3 "coin flips" for Democrat holds (FL, MO, ND) and 3 "coin flips" for Democrat pickups (AZ, NV, TN). If Republicans win any 2 of those coin flips, they maintain control of the Senate... there's a 9 in 10 chance that Republicans keep control of the Senate and that's with giving Democrats the "handicap" of holding 7 seats in red states.
To be fair, I really can't break down all of these races to a coin flip. That isn't necessarily fair. However, what I'm getting at is the hill they have to climb is VERY steep. Democrats need a lot to break their way just to hold seats - they can only afford to lose one of what they already have IF they pick up AZ NV and TN.
I don't know. Even if there's a very strong turnout in 2018 for Democrats, I still think the chances of Democrats controlling the Senate was less than the chance that Donald Trump would be our President (that was pegged to about 20% before Election Day).
Good for you!!! right wingers better be lowering their expectations, Pelosi will be back with full force to defend our country from the ineptitude of the orange moron...
I hope the Democrats do indeed run on Nancy Pelosi being their leader.
Yup, it will be rigged by Putin, the same man who admits on live TV in Helsinki that he prefers tRump over Hillary.
"I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election. Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 24, 2018"
So he's now admits "Russian meddling" is a thing, but is concerned that Putin will rig the election in favor of the Dems? Does he believe we are all morons? Oh, no wait, he only believes his supporters are morons.
Status:
"Let's replace the puppet show with actual leadership."
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Suburban Dallas
52,706 posts, read 47,996,677 times
Reputation: 33895
Quote:
Originally Posted by magaalot
Even if Democrats take the house, they'll have failed if they don't take the senate.
Obama lost the house and the senate in 2010. Anyway if the Republicans keep the house and the senate, it will hurt Trump in 2020 because Republicans will be too complacent.
Its best for Republicans to lose the house so their voters will be motivated to vote in 2020, but keep the senate just to annoy the Democrats.
Ridiculous. Why would Republicans afford to lose the House? We must keep it so that unhinged leftists cannot impeach our president, who has done nothing wrong. There will be some good Republicans who do support our president who can win important races and get in. Conservatives cannot sit in 2018; we'll be plenty motivated by a deranged left-wing opposition. That's more than enough to wake people up and get them to the precincts.
I don't think anyone really believes there will be a red wave in November. Most of us know that mid term elections favor the party not office, but will the dems be able to take over either house, my guess in no .
agreed. RCP as of last night had GOP 202, Dems 199, leaving just 34 seats in play, many in red states, btw.
I think GOP drops into 220s, but Senate they add several.
No wave either way, but status quo works nicely when you control all chambers.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
