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Polls do weighting to ensure the polled people matches the electorate. What's the weighting on the poll? That's the other half that you didn't paste and it's just as important in determining whether the polled people match the electorate.
You know what poll waiting is and how important it is, right?
The weighting is on the photo I linked above, it's 39/39% Dem/Rep which doesn't match the TX electorate. It's just like every Presidential poll that is weighted heavily Dem, no matter how many times it's proven wrong it continues.
The weighting is on the photo I linked above, it's 39/39% Dem/Rep which doesn't match the TX electorate. It's just like every Presidential poll that is weighted heavily Dem, no matter how many times it's proven wrong it continues.
That's not weighting. That's the percentage of people polled. You don't know what weighting is yet you claim the poll is illegitimate. Go learn what weighting is before you declare a poll illegitimate without looking at the weighting.
That's not weighting. That's the percentage of people polled. You don't know what weighting is yet you claim the poll is illegitimate. Go learn what weighting is before you declare a poll illegitimate without looking at the weighting.
I know exactly what weighting is but thanks for deflecting away from the point.
There have been quite a few polls of late showing this race getting tighter, this is the closest I have seen, but quite a few have it close. Are there any specific reasons you are saying this poll is complete bulls***??
age 65 and over were 18% of the likely voters ...... the reality is that age 65+ in Texas votes at 65%.
Add to that - the same poll missed by over 10% in the 2014 Election.
They have this poll every Election and the questions are almost always the same ..... but not this year
they asked a TON of questions about "health care" .... keep in mind that only a small amount of the people polled don't have either employer insurance or Government Insurance (medicaid/medicare).
The answers simply don't match the demographics -- but they try hard every time to "turn Texas Blue".
The weighting is on the photo I linked above, it's 39/39% Dem/Rep which doesn't match the TX electorate. It's just like every Presidential poll that is weighted heavily Dem, no matter how many times it's proven wrong it continues.
It's also the age weighting -- which is WAY off when you consider the election voter participation.
age 65 and over were 18% of the likely voters ...... the reality is that age 65+ in Texas votes at 65%.
Add to that - the same poll missed by over 10% in the 2014 Election.
They have this poll every Election and the questions are almost always the same ..... but not this year
they asked a TON of questions about "health care" .... keep in mind that only a small amount of the people polled don't have either employer insurance or Government Insurance (medicaid/medicare).
The answers simply don't match the demographics -- but they try hard every time to "turn Texas Blue".
The link you provided doesn't show that. It shows the turnout rate for those over 65 is 65%, not that they make up 65% of the electorate.....
Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is neck and neck, according to a new poll released Wednesday.The 2018 Texas Lyceum Poll showed Cruz leading O'Rourke by a hair — 41-39 percent among likely voters.
O'Rourke reported a staggering $10.4 million fundraising haul in the second quarter of the 2018 cycle.
Cruz, raised about $4.1 million in the second quarter.
IBCON. Generally speaking, would you say that you are...1.
Liberal
17%
2.
Moderate, or
34
3.
Conservative.
37
4.
DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
13
51% not conservative and you are shocked its supposedly close? Lol....funny.
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
O'Rourke 43% Hispanics - 52%
Cruz 49% Hispanics - 40%
(40% Hispanic support for Cruz is horrible news for Beto)
Worse is the "Haven't heard enough" Factor
Beto - 43% & 52% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Cruz - 7% 13% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Texas is difficult to poll and difficult to campaign in ... it's one of the reasons that Statewide races are so hard to win. It's also why there is not a single Democrat in a Statewide Office in decades.
It's less than 100 days until election day and those numbers don't look good for Beto (not great for Cruz either, who ticked off a lot of Republicans in 2016).
Bottom line -- you can't win if they don't know who you are AND the guy you are running against has a favorable rating in the top 2 issues that people care about - Immigration & the Economy.
Cruz will have a secret weapon out there campaigning for him - a big Hispanic favorite - George P.
I'm not a Cruz fan and haven't been for years - BUT, electing ANY Democrat is a danger to our Nation.
Cruz will get my vote - the alternative is just to bad to contemplate. Cruz got Lucky - We need Republicans in Congress to get anything done, so he will win.
It is going to be interesting, but I hope those who are counting on the polls being right don't go to Vegas and start gambling on who will win the race.
No, I don’t bet period, but it will be interesting to see if it’s relatively close, or a blowout.
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
O'Rourke 43% Hispanics - 52%
Cruz 49% Hispanics - 40%
(40% Hispanic support for Cruz is horrible news for Beto)
Worse is the "Haven't heard enough" Factor
Beto - 43% & 52% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Cruz - 7% 13% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Texas is difficult to poll and difficult to campaign in ... it's one of the reasons that Statewide races are so hard to win. It's also why there is not a single Democrat in a Statewide Office in decades.
It's less than 100 days until election day and those numbers don't look good for Beto (not great for Cruz either, who ticked off a lot of Republicans in 2016).
Bottom line -- you can't win if they don't know who you are AND the guy you are running against has a favorable rating in the top 2 issues that people care about - Immigration & the Economy.
Cruz will have a secret weapon out there campaigning for him - a big Hispanic favorite - George P.
I'm not a Cruz fan and haven't been for years - BUT, electing ANY Democrat is a danger to our Nation.
Cruz will get my vote - the alternative is just to bad to contemplate. Cruz got Lucky - We need Republicans in Congress to get anything done, so he will win.
I never suggested Beto is going to win, I still think Cruz is the favorite. However, at this point I don't think it can be argued that this is not a competitive race. Six months ago it looked like this had the potential to be competitive, now it is. That doesn't mean things will not change, but Cruz has a competitive race on his hands.
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