Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Did you read the actual poll results before posting?
Clinton actually had a higher percentage of the votes in 2106 than the D is currently polling. The main problem is Cruz's unpopularity. He has pissed off both those across the aisle and fair number of those in his base- both moederate Rs and Trump supporters. Importantly the race stands at 41-39 so in the end that favors Cruz since so many of the undecided would be R in Texas.
I actually believe that voter breakdown simply because so many consistent R voters have been declaring themselves independents whether they are simply fed up with the party, further to the right than the Republican party or view themselves as Libertarian. They continue to vote R but they shed their party affiliation. Lou Dobbs and a couple of other talking heads were encouraging this a few years back.
I didn’t vote for Cruz the first time, but I will be sure to this time. If the Democrats hadn’t gone off the deep end after the 2016 election, I would probably vote for Beto. But right now I will not vote for this Democrat Party. They can go f themselves for all I care. I hope there are still enough law and order people in this state to not vote for the party that wants to abolish ICE.
Yes, a Texas company with a history of being very wrong about statewide elections, a Texas company that used a sample pool that doesn't represent the electorate of Texas and a Texas company that is known to be in the tank for left wing, "Turn TX Blue" type folks.
My community is in Montgomery County, TX (the only county in the U.S. where Trump beat Hillary by 100,000 votes, Where Gingrich and Herman Cain had their debates, and a popular stop (Barnes & Noble) on conservative book tours).
In the last week or so I've seen a number of Beto stickers in car windows, and zero Cruz stickers.
Repeat after me: Beto will not win. Cruz will win by double digits. In Texas, it is not uncommon for polls a bit out from an election to show a neck and neck race. But with almost all of these polls--including this one--close to 20% of the electorate is undecided. These are conservative undecided voters who will not be backing Beto. I'm giddy that Dems think they have a chance, though, as they are going to be burning through money that could be used in races where they'd actually have a chance
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
O'Rourke 43% Hispanics - 52%
Cruz 49% Hispanics - 40%
(40% Hispanic support for Cruz is horrible news for Beto)
Worse is the "Haven't heard enough" Factor
Beto - 43% & 52% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Cruz - 7% 13% of the Hispanics "haven't heard enough"
Texas is difficult to poll and difficult to campaign in ... it's one of the reasons that Statewide races are so hard to win. It's also why there is not a single Democrat in a Statewide Office in decades.
It's less than 100 days until election day and those numbers don't look good for Beto (not great for Cruz either, who ticked off a lot of Republicans in 2016).
Bottom line -- you can't win if they don't know who you are AND the guy you are running against has a favorable rating in the top 2 issues that people care about - Immigration & the Economy.
Cruz will have a secret weapon out there campaigning for him - a big Hispanic favorite - George P.
I'm not a Cruz fan and haven't been for years - BUT, electing ANY Democrat is a danger to our Nation.
Cruz will get my vote - the alternative is just to bad to contemplate. Cruz got Lucky - We need Republicans in Congress to get anything done, so he will win.
What makes you think that George P Bush is a “big Hispanic favorite”? Most that I know simply see him him as an overprivileged brat scion of the Bush mafia. Beto is the “real deal”. Cruz is a faker with no pride. I will gladly cast my Libertarian vote for Beto this November.
Some good stuff from electoral-vote.com today on the Cruz-Beto race...
To start, the latest polls are not good for the Senator. Quinnipiac now has him up just 6 points, 49% to 43%. Even worse, however, is that 43% of Texans say they don't really know enough about O'Rourke to form a strong opinion, whereas only 7% say that about Cruz. Put another way, O'Rourke's support has much more room to grow than Cruz's. Another poll, from Texas Lyceum, did not attempt to measure how well known the two men are, but did have Cruz with just a two point lead, 36% to 34%, which is a statistical dead heat.
Then there is fundraising, where O'Rourke is currently outpacing the Senator at better than a 2-to-1 clip, pulling in $10.4 million in Q2 (compared to $4.6 million for Cruz).
Cruz is facing two major problems here. The first, which is only partly of his making, is that the GOP and its president are not wildly popular right now, putting any Republican who is up this year at potential risk of getting caught up in a blue wave. The second, which is entirely of his own making, is that Cruz just isn't all that likable or charismatic. That's clearly not fatal; Dick Nixon and LBJ weren't likable or charismatic, and they had fine careers. In a race against a pointy-headed Democratic wonk, say Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Cruz' intellectual acuity would probably carry the day. But a fellow like O'Rourke, with Bobby Kennedy-like looks and charm, is the Senator's kryptonite. These days, he often attracts standing-room-only crowds, even in very red parts of the state.
My community is in Montgomery County, TX (the only county in the U.S. where Trump beat Hillary by 100,000 votes, Where Gingrich and Herman Cain had their debates, and a popular stop (Barnes & Noble) on conservative book tours).
In the last week or so I've seen a number of Beto stickers in car windows, and zero Cruz stickers.
That's odd, I haven't seen anything about Beto anywhere in the area.
We are all aware that the whole point of a poll is that the pool is completely random right? If you seed the poll with party or age or other affiliation, then it's not statistically valid. Unless you're limiting the poll to that demographic. i.e. People over 65.
Repeat after me: Beto will not win. Cruz will win by double digits. In Texas, it is not uncommon for polls a bit out from an election to show a neck and neck race. But with almost all of these polls--including this one--close to 20% of the electorate is undecided. These are conservative undecided voters who will not be backing Beto. I'm giddy that Dems think they have a chance, though, as they are going to be burning through money that could be used in races where they'd actually have a chance
I actually state the first part of your comment in an earlier post- of the undecided 20% too many are either R or far right for the D to peel them off.
The second portion is where I disagree. Much like Trump finally peeling away Wisconsin, Michigan and Pa in 2016- Dems need to start contesting states ahead of the big matchups. If you can winnow your 8-10 point losses (Clinton lost by 9) down to 4-6 point losses you have enough engaged voters and organizations to take advantage of a wave election or dud on the other side. Demographics are also shifting in Texas- not quick enough for 2018 or 2020- so if the Dems want to be in play in 2024 or 2026 they need to start now.
How did that work out in the 2016 presidential election?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
