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seems our guy Cruz is starting to pull ahead. I think, regardless of how many feel or how much the Dems want him gone, he will pull this thing out. I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
seems our guy Cruz is starting to pull ahead. I think, regardless of how many feel or how much the Dems want him gone, he will pull this thing out. I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
Latest poll by Reuters has Beto ahead by 2, not sure how Cruz is pulling ahead?
Latest poll by Reuters has Beto ahead by 2, not sure how Cruz is pulling ahead?
Real Clear Politics averages the polls in a crude way. They don't care if it is Likely Voters or Registered Voters. They pretty much took the last few polls and average them together. They give the same weight to a poll that had 400 registered voters as one with 2000 likely voters.
However, no matter how you look at it, Cruz has been ahead in every poll. That should be very encouraging for Cruz and his supporters.
On the other hand, the race IS tightening. The rolling average of those polls (again, crudely done) shows Rourke closing by about 3 points over that time frame. From roughly 7 behind to 4 behind. 4 points back with about 50 days to go.
If O'Rourke has been closing that gap by winning over independents, he might close the gap more, but there's only so many independents left to convince. O'Rourke is going to need independents to break heavily for him while also getting high turnout from Democrats. And turn-out is always a problem for them. To be fair, usually Democrats only put up a token fight in Texas. Maybe this year if they are within striking distance, they might show up.
If I had to make a prediction, I'd follow the money. O'Rourke (as of last month at least) had more money on hand. Senate campaign outcomes are highly correlated to campaign funds. The latest figures I could find show that he has 14M to Cruz's 10M. It is a red state, but I think O'Rourke will pull off an upset.
If I was Cruz, I'd break out Trump and kiss his orange a** to come to Texas and hand him the win.
Yes I do. 3 lanes each way. Loves2read explanation seems plausible.
And if you look at the growth in TX over the past 25-30 yrs
It has not been along I-10 except maybe little ways outside SA
It has been from DFW through the heart of TX down into the Valley
The towns along I 10 once past Katy are not doing anything progressive to grow their numbers or business influence
San Marcos, New Braunfels, Waco, Georgetown, Pflugerville (off 35) and the towns like Spring Branch and Boerne north of SA have exploded in growth
I drive 35 lot more than 10--maybe that is just MY perception--
But where there is business and growth and VOTERS there is road expansion
seems our guy Cruz is starting to pull ahead. I think, regardless of how many feel or how much the Dems want him gone, he will pull this thing out. I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
OUR GUY Cruz???
You are in Arkansas aren't you?
So Cruz is only a metaphorical "our guy"....
You can't vote for him...
Did you donate to his campaign?
I donated to Beto today and to two other Democratic first time Congressional candidates in states I don't live in--
since I can't vote for them, I thought it was the least I could do to show my support for their efforts...
And needless to say, I will be voting for Beto as well...
Latest poll by Reuters has Beto ahead by 2, not sure how Cruz is pulling ahead?
I have heard from 2 different sources and I do not know which polls but it was this week, Cruz was up by 6. Again, I don't know for certain, just what I have heard.
OUR GUY Cruz???
You are in Arkansas aren't you?
So Cruz is only a metaphorical "our guy"....
You can't vote for him...
Did you donate to his campaign?
I donated to Beto today and to two other Democratic first time Congressional candidates in states I don't live in--
since I can't vote for them, I thought it was the least I could do to show my support for their efforts...
And needless to say, I will be voting for Beto as well...
no, I did not give to his campaign, of course I can't vote for him. How dumb do you think I am or how dumb are you to even make that comment and one more thing,I am not even a lover of Cruz. I am simply repeating what I heard yesterday.
seems our guy Cruz is starting to pull ahead. I think, regardless of how many feel or how much the Dems want him gone, he will pull this thing out. I am not a believer of polls as most of you know, but for those who do think polls are like the Bible, the last word, it looks like the polls are leaning against the Dems, at least in this race.
I wish Cruz would move to Arkansas where he could really be YOUR guy.
no, I did not give to his campaign, of course I can't vote for him. How dumb do you think I am or how dumb are you to even make that comment and one more thing,I am not even a lover of Cruz. I am simply repeating what I heard yesterday.
There were two polls released yesterday. One showing Cruz up 9 (which I assume is the one you were talking about) and another showing O'Rouke up 2
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