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Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,594 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman
Hillary lost because...well Hillary. The area I live in was instrumental in putting Trump into the Whitehouse. Almost all of his margin of victory in PA can be attributed to this area when you look at the votes that were flipped from previous elections with Obama. I think it's inevitable that the Democrat nomination will be far left of Hillary and that is not going to sit well with many PA Democrats especially those outside of the population centers of Pitt and Philly such as the area I live in.... to reiterate the region of the state that was instrumental in handing Trump a win.
Most surveys and studies on voters say the amount of people who flipped from one side to another are no larger than previous elections
Where they flipped is what is different this time than previously.
But even taking your argument into account , places like say Lackawanna county had a 65% turnout
Philly County was at what's , 45% . A Democrat maximizing his or her base gets more voters than a Republican does.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,594 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6047
Quote:
Originally Posted by YanMarcs
with these trump numbers he is not re-elected in Pennsylvania and no matter if his region voted for him, today Pennsylvania would not re-elect him, the very prognosis of polls in the state indicates a Democratic trend under Republicans
Exactly , Josh Shapiro got 19,000 more votes than Trump got.
In fact, 3 Democrats were elected state wide that night, all with larger margins than Trump over Hillary.
Very interesting poll. The kicker is the approval rating by Independents is so low. Also, the 'under 45s' is a really bad sign for Trump. Especially when people who dislike the current admin are so motivated to vote.
If all the GOP has going for it is the core base--they aren't going to make it. They (and Trump) need Independents or they are dead in the water.
People in their own party--like Steve Schmidt and Nicole Wallace who have pretty much disowned this cloned version of the GOP they worked for for decades--have said it until they are sick of it...
They won't listen
And the Senators discussing Trump's salvos against Sessions this week show they have no cojones...
Most of them are ATTORNEYS for goodness sake--and they can't articulate why the President of the United States has "slipped the surly bonds of earth" if he is complaining his AG is not putting in the fix to protect him from a legitimate investigation into a LEGITIMATE crime...
So I hope the polls hold true and Trump and his bizarro edition of Reagan's and the Bushes' GOP go down in flames.....
They were not the greatest presidents--they both broke laws including the Constitution IMO
but they were not insane...
Most surveys and studies on voters say the amount of people who flipped from one side to another are no larger than previous elections
Where they flipped is what is different this time than previously.
But even taking your argument into account , places like say Lackawanna county had a 65% turnout
Philly County was at what's , 45% . A Democrat maximizing his or her base gets more voters than a Republican does.
Which is one reason the GOP has made a concerted effort at gerrymandering and voter suppression--
To disperse opposition and ensure their minority numbers have maximum effect
Wisconsin is perfect case in point
More Democratic voter turn out--but GOP rules the legislature and congressional offering
Most surveys and studies on voters say the amount of people who flipped from one side to another are no larger than previous elections
Where I live 10 years ago the Democrats held about 2:1 margin in registrations, it might be a 3:2 ratio now and the Republicans will continue to gain ground. Obama overwhelmingly won both elections here, Trump flipped that and that flip accounted for more than half of his margin of victory in PA. A far left candidate is not going to flip that back in 2020, I can tell you that without any reservations.
1. Do you approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? YES: 37% NO: 53% (-16%).
2. If you were voting today for your Congressman, which Party will you vote for? R: 39% D:51%
3. If you were voting today for Senator, would you support the Democrat Bob Casey or the Republican Lou Barletta? Bob Casey (D):53% Lou Barletta 38%
4. If you were voting today for Governor, would tot support the Democrat Tom Wolf or the Republican Scott Wagner? Tom Wolf (D): 54% Scott Wagner (R): 40%.
"Pennsylvania has backed the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992 up until 2016, when it was won by Republican candidate Donald Trump. In 2008, Barack Obama won almost all of the Philadelphia suburbs. "
So it should NOT surprise anyone about the 'results of the "poll"
I love how the article( fairy tale is a better description) is written, "Forty-five percent of Pennsylvania adults believe"
I DON'T think 825 people,and 112 of hm don'r even vote, out of almost 13 MILLION comes out to 45 %
THIS is why polls, and the media, have taken a such sharp decline in credibility
Last edited by Quick Enough; 08-26-2018 at 05:17 AM..
Which is one reason the GOP has made a concerted effort at gerrymandering and voter suppression--
To disperse opposition and ensure their minority numbers have maximum effect
Wisconsin is perfect case in point
More Democratic voter turn out--but GOP rules the legislature and congressional offering
"Which is one reason the GOP has made a concerted effort at gerrymandering and voter suppression--"
You act as if the dem NEVER involved themselves in gerrymandering.
How do you think they kept CONTROL of the House for 40 STRAIGHT YEARS and most state legislatures?
The usual though, when the dems did it you were happy. Now the repubs are doing it, you are against it!
I SAY, the repubs are just FIXING the messes the dems created.
If you want to lean about REAL gerrymandering do some research on Maryland.
"Political Insiders Plotted the Most Gerrymandered District in America—and Left a Paper Trail"
"A wild ride through Maryland's 6th, which the Democrats flipped from red to blue, and the Supreme Court case that may force them to give it back."
"Democratic governor Martin O’Malley and his overwhelmingly Democratic legislature were in charge. They could paint the map as blue as the Chesapeake—an intention the governor was shameless about. Dems in the congressional delegation already outnumbered Republicans 6–2, but a 7–1 split sounded even better. As O’Malley said in a deposition, “I felt that was not only my responsibility but my duty.”
" Maryland, though, is the Wild West. It’s the only state in the Union where the map comes directly from the governor’s office."
"Hoyer engaged a boutique Washington consulting shop called NCEC Services. It’s a big player in mapmaking and voter targeting for the party, with clients such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But the real reason you hire the firm is for an inconspicuous little Excel column labeled Democratic Performance Index, a calculation of a candidate’s probability of picking up a given precinct to the nearest one-hundredth of a percentage point.
It is getting really hard to see how Trump lasts till 2020 much less gets re-elected. In the meantime, he has managed to turn the PA suburban vote to the dems, if only until he is gone.
What is going wrong in the country to suggest Trump won't be reelected? I am in the Philly burbs. Housing is booming, people are working, and their investments are doing well. What is so bad?
In 2016, Trump carried Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined 77,000 votes out of a total of almost 14 million votes.
By 2020, there will be more deaths among registered white non-college voters in each of those states than Trump’s margin of victory.
In the July Morning Consult Poll on Trump Job Approval he is currently underwater in:
Michigan by 11% (42%/53%)
Pennsylvania by 6% (45%/51%)
Wisconsin by 15% (41%/56%)
Only time will tell if Trump’s victory in 2016 is a harbinger of things to come or just a Black Swan Event.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-26-2018 at 08:37 AM..
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