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We are experiencing an era of economic growth. We are seeing more jobs being created, unemployment is low, wage growth is increasing following an era of stagnation, the market is strong, and consumers are more confident in their finances and the future.
The economy works in cycles and both people and businesses react to incentives and disincentives. Following the financial crisis and economic downturn of 2008, President Barack Obama put in place policies that I believe prolonged the contraction and trough parts of the business cycle. As a result, we experienced the slowest recovery since the Great Depression. By 2014, however, we did begin to see some positive economic news. But it wasn't until the tax cuts and deregulation of the past year and a half that we began to see record numbers indicating we are in an era of growth.
Now, how does this pertain to the question of Trump's re-election? I think it's very relevant for two reasons. One, the economy is the one area where most Americans believe we are moving in the right direction. Two, the President's tariffs have the potential to slow or undo the economic growth of the past year. If we pursue protectionist trade policies, this could have a negative impact on job creation and wage growth. It would likely create inflation as well. Tariffs led to the Great Depression and President Herbert Hoover lost re-election in 1932 as a result. We experienced inflation during the late 1970s and President Jimmy Carter lost re-election in 1980.
There are other issues that benefit potential Democratic presidential candidates. While I personally oppose Obamacare and want to see it repealed and replaced, Americans view of Obamacare has improved over the last two years. This is because while Democrats have not done a good job promoting their economic philosophy, they have done a great job convincing Americans they are the party that protects the safety net. Also, President Trump's words and actions on immigration policy are highly controversial. This also benefits Democrats politically.
Taking all of this into account, I would say that Trump probably will not win re-election IF the Democrats nominate a candidate who isn't too far to the left. Republicans will vote for Trump, Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee. Independent voters do not like Trump's positions on immigration or his personality. But I'm not convinced independents will vote for a far-left Democrat who supports single-payer health care, a $15 minimum wage, massive tax hikes, and sanctuary cities. If the Democrats nominate a far left candidate like Bill DeBlasio or Bernie Sanders, I think Trump wins because while independents do not like him, they will either stay home or vote for him out of disapproval for the far left and their antics.
Are you seriously trying to use an editorial by two Democrat congressmen to "prove" there was no IRS scandal and that it's "fake news".
The inspector general found targeting, the IRS apologized for targeting and it wasn't the first time. They didn't just target conservative tea party groups, but they also targeted supporters of Mitt Romney.
We are experiencing an era of economic growth. We are seeing more jobs being created, unemployment is low, wage growth is increasing following an era of stagnation, the market is strong, and consumers are more confident in their finances and the future.
For now.
You are currently in the 109th month of the 2nd longest economic expansion in history. You could, in theory, tie the record of 120 months in August 2019 and then set a new historic record in September 2019.
The question is if you set a new historic record, how much longer will the economy continue to expand?
The thing about recessions is that it can take up to 6 months to figure out that you actually are in a recession.
So, if the recession started in October 2020 a month before the election, no one would know that until sometime between January and March 2021, after all the data for the 4th Quarter had been reviewed.
Even if the recession started in July of 2020, it still might be January to March of 2021, before you know if you really are in a recession.
If you knew you were actually in a recession after October 2019, that would be most unfortunate.
It would be most unfortunate not because you were in a recession, but because all candidates would then shift their entire focus to the recession, and the Media would ensure that the only news was about the recession, and all other issues get totally ignored.
That's bad, because those other issues are far more important than a recession and have far greater consequences reaching into the Future.
So, the election becomes solely about the recession, and Americans are stupid enough to elected a candidate based entirely on what that candidate says about the recession.
If you should be in a recession during the Election, then it's a foregone conclusion that the opposing Party will win.
The Media will totally ignore and take every opportunity to down-play the historic economic expansion and blame Trump, even though the most likely culprit of the next recession will be the Federal Reserve and its constantly increasing interest rates.
You just added 652,000 workers in September, so the tariffs and the so-called "trade war" has zero impact on hiring.
If you should happen to be in a recession early in the campaign, like in January of 2020, it's quite possible a Republican challenger will unseat Trump.
You should consider the possibility given the current climate and state of affairs, that the GOP may not even endorse Trump for an automatic nomination, so it's quite likely there may be challengers, and Nikki Haley's recent resignation as ambassador to the UN might signal she is willing to give it a shot. Divorcing herself from Trump now is the best action she could take if that is really what she has in mind.
Hopefully not. More Americans need to vote him out even though most Americans didn't vote for him the first time.
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