Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
In any event, Republicans hold 29 of the 30 seats that are critical, and that gives them an advantage. That's what this thread is about.
You keep repeating that like its the only element in the race.
Being an R running in a center-left district that Hillary carried puts you at a disadvantage, which probably at least outweighs any advantage of being an incumbent.
There multiple other elements of all the races that could be advantages or disadvantages for either candidate.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,573 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
Most incumbent Democrats are safe. That's true. The problem for Dems is that there are not enough safe seats.
Are you saying you think Democrats need to be up by 10 in Republican held seats to win, thats not how this works.LOL
you only need to win a seat by 1 vote to be elected.
Based on this post, you are actually arguing the guarantee of a house victory rather than the possibility. And if so, not trying to bash you, but you need to do a better job with the phrasing you are using.
Quote:
270towin shows 209 D seats if you count 'lean'. And the lean seats are dominated by R people.
They show 199 R seats if you count Leaners - which are, again, dominated by R people. As you say, there is an inherent advantage to being an incumbent.
There is an advantage, but it isnt so great that simply holding a seat means you will never lose. You seem to be assuming Republicans will win every seat they currently hold even if it is lean Democrat.
Most sites have between 31 to 60 seats as "toss up"
Most have Democrats at around 205 Safe seats, Republicans around 200
meaning if we assume those seats are truly safe, Dems only need to win about 13 of the 31 to 60 seats.
Again, your logic doesnt make sense unless you are saying Dems not being in the majority now means they never will.
Are you saying you think Democrats need to be up by 10 in Republican held seats to win, thats not how this works.LOL
you only need to win a seat by 1 vote to be elected.
Based on this post, you are actually arguing the guarantee of a house victory rather than the possibility. And if so, not trying to bash you, but you need to do a better job with the phrasing you are using.
There is an advantage, but it isnt so great that simply holding a seat means you will never lose. You seem to be assuming Republicans will win every seat they currently hold even if it is lean Democrat.
Most sites have between 31 to 60 seats as "toss up"
Most have Democrats at around 205 Safe seats, Republicans around 200
meaning if we assume those seats are truly safe, Dems only need to win about 13 of the 31 to 60 seats.
Again, your logic doesnt make sense unless you are saying Dems not being in the majority now means they never will.
Incumbents hold the advantage in toss-up races It has always been this way and still is today.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,573 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
Incumbents hold the advantage in toss-up races It has always been this way and still is today.
This is a flawed argument on multiple levels so let me just hit the high point .
Democrats only need to win 13 of the toss up seats to get to the majority while holding on to all 205 of safe seats.
Meaning they need to win a net 24.
The average pick up is 25, while being an incumbent is always a benefit , it hadn't stopped the house from changing hands or at least there being a shift in power.
So who had the overall advantage doesn't really mean much in this context. If Dems only win 13 of 60 toss up seats, they are still in the majority while having the lower percentage of competitive wins.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 28 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,573 posts, read 16,564,108 times
Reputation: 6044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
If someone had time it would be interesting to go through the last few cycles and see the % of incumbents who won toss up races.
I doubt we could find polling of house races before the 2000's . Wash Post has an article listing the districts, but it doesn't really state if their was an incumbent or even who won( only if it was continuous )
This is a flawed argument on multiple levels so let me just hit the high point .
Democrats only need to win 13 of the toss up seats to get to the majority while holding on to all 205 of safe seats.
Meaning they need to win a net 24.
The average pick up is 25, while being an incumbent is always a benefit , it hadn't stopped the house from changing hands or at least there being a shift in power.
So who had the overall advantage doesn't really mean much in this context. If Dems only win 13 of 60 toss up seats, they are still in the majority while having the lower percentage of competitive wins.
There are not 60 toss up seats. There are 32. There are 30 lean Dem and 41 lean GOP.
Has anyone notice that the Democrats aren't screaming insanity for the past week... They gotten real quiet as if they finally realize that acting stupid and crazy had a negative effect...
Has anyone notice that the Democrats aren't screaming insanity for the past week... They gotten real quiet as if they finally realize that acting stupid and crazy had a negative effect...
They were NEVER "screaming insanity".
You are thinking of the GOP under Obama.
Ken
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
