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Old 11-25-2018, 09:23 AM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
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Meanwhile John Kasich sounds like he's planning to be a spoiler by running third party. He could siphon votes from the Republican party and/or Independents.

He's extremely anti-choice so I doubt many Democrats would vote for him once that becomes well known

 
Old 11-25-2018, 09:56 AM
 
8,196 posts, read 2,868,209 times
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I believe Trump will win again in 2020. For all the loudmouths you have who dislike him, would never vote for him, you have many, who will never say it out loud or speak out about it, who will let their vote speak for them in 2020.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Billings, MT
9,884 posts, read 11,039,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4dognight View Post
I believe Trump will win again in 2020. For all the loudmouths you have who dislike him, would never vote for him, you have many, who will never say it out loud or speak out about it, who will let their vote speak for them in 2020.

That, IMO, is a fact.
All the political prognosticators would do themselves a favor by simply being quiet. Few people believe what they have to say anyway.
The election is two years away. Nobody knows what will happen. The Dems might find a person that will be a viable candidate (I don't think it is likely, but, what the h e l l, it COULD happen!), or trump could decide "ENOUGH, ALREADY, I'm outa here!" (again, not likely, but I wouldn't blame him) or pelosi et.al. might actually succeed in impeaching him (again, not likely, no matter how badly they want to.).
We just do not know what will happen, and the professional prognosticators are simply being foolish in trying to sway the electorate.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 12:21 PM
 
11,046 posts, read 5,307,397 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chopchop0 View Post
Trump's electoral college victory in 2016 depended on ~ 100k votes from 3 Midwestern states....

https://politi.co/2FDn068


Unlike most of his predecessors, he’s been persistently unpopular, with approval ratings mired in the 40-percent range — so far, he’s the only president in the modern era whose job approval ratings have never been over 50 percent, according to Gallup.

Some of Democrats’ biggest gains came in the states that powered Trump’s Electoral College victory in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And while a president’s base has stayed home in previous midterm elections, leading to losses, the record turnout in this year’s races suggests 2018 was more like a 2016 re-run than Trump voters standing on the sidelines.

Thus far, even Trump loyalists in the party haven’t seen the president expand his electoral base beyond core Republicans.

“This is now the party of Donald Trump. I read articles saying the Republican Party has merged with the Trump coalition — they have no choice. Trump voters own the Republican Party. That’s consolidated,” said John McLaughlin, who was part of the team of pollsters working on Trump’s 2016 campaign. “The bad part is they haven’t broadened [his coalition]. They haven’t gotten his job approval over 50 percent, like Reagan. We haven’t done that.”

------


But the biggest advances for Democrats were made in the three states that put Trump over the top in the Electoral College in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats won the governorships in all three — wresting away an open seat in Michigan and defeating two-term incumbent Scott Walker in Wisconsin, while holding Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent senators in all three won reelection without breaking much of a sweat.

Democrats also won six more House elections across Michigan and Pennsylvania than they had captured in 2016, helped in large part by a new congressional map in Pennsylvania.

“There’s simply no evidence that those states are crying out for more Trump,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who worked for then-Sen. John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign.
Trump has the same approval as 2016 and he still won 30 STATES and 306 EC when he was the huge underdog and was outspent 3 to 1 by Hillary Clinton.

What you forget is that a sitting President has a huge advantage. Trump will have a huge advantage over the Democrat candidate in money and head start . Trump won't have a primary challenge and the Democrat party will have a long and bloody one and whoever comes out will be at a disadvantage.


You are making too much out of the midterms. Bill Clinton and Obama lost a lot more seats in their first midterms than Trump by far and they both won re-election easily.

making Pelosi Speaker of the House and making her the face of the Democrat party for 2 years until the democrats choose their candidate in the summer of 2020 only helps Trump. Bill Clinton approval numbers were in the low 40% in 1994, once he lost the midterms and Newt Gingrich was speaker of the house, his number went up and won re-election.


I'm not saying that's exactly what's going to happen. 2 years in politics is a long time but political history shows that a President losing the midterms is better for him for re-election not worse.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 01:23 PM
 
2,305 posts, read 2,423,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chopchop0 View Post
They question the news because their snake oil salesman has them duped with lie after lie. Trump's power has been to tell more lies than any president in history and convince people that immigrants stole their jobs, rather than automation, and convince them that tax cuts benefiting mainly the 0.1-1% and corporations will trickle down to them eventually.
The views that you express are the views "benefiting mainly the 0.1-1% and corporations."

Objectively, the media serves the interests of elites. Read the Podesta leaks. Glenn Thrush is sycophant to Podesta. Read the DNC leaks. www.wikileaks.com

Look at how the SF media is ignoring the assaults happening at the BART stations. BART feels comfortable enough to withhold the video evidence, because, presumably, they know the media will never hold their feet to the fire.

Immigrants have stolen Americans' jobs. The people whose jobs have been stolen just need to look around, they see it in their everyday interactions - and so would anyone else.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 04:44 PM
 
2,305 posts, read 2,423,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo1 View Post
Meanwhile John Kasich sounds like he's planning to be a spoiler by running third party. He could siphon votes from the Republican party and/or Independents.

He's extremely anti-choice so I doubt many Democrats would vote for him once that becomes well known
Kasich? Lol. That guy was a banker for Lehman and then became a career politician who championed globalism. He is unelectable as a republican in the current climate.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 07:22 PM
 
Location: 404
3,005 posts, read 1,510,157 times
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Trump beat the bipartisan consensus of global trade, open borders, and brinkmanship with Russia. The DNC will double down on rejected policies, then finally start learning after losing again. This is Trump's race to lose or win, depending on how much he still wants the job, until someone else starts getting serious and smarter about winning.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 07:28 PM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
33,942 posts, read 22,641,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuptag View Post
Kasich? Lol. That guy was a banker for Lehman and then became a career politician who championed globalism. He is unelectable as a republican in the current climate.
Which MUST BE the reason he talked non-stop about running as part of a third party - which I mentioned. I don't even think he cares if he wins - if he can siphon enough votes from Trump.

That said - the Trump's cabinet is chock full of Leman brothers.
 
Old 11-25-2018, 07:43 PM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,248 posts, read 5,766,678 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo1 View Post
Which MUST BE the reason he talked non-stop about running as part of a third party - which I mentioned. I don't even think he cares if he wins - if he can siphon enough votes from Trump.

That said - the Trump's cabinet is chock full of Leman brothers.
I always find it amusing when there are people who rail about the elite and how Trump is on the side of the little guy. And then when Trump packs his administration with the elite the response is "crickets".
 
Old 11-25-2018, 11:33 PM
 
471 posts, read 396,791 times
Reputation: 577
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40 View Post
Great post.
If the democrats nominate Hillary, or another nut job - I'm reasonably confident Trump can win. If they find a better candidate it is going to rough for Trump. If Trump doesn't start getting some things done I might not be there to vote for him again. I'd never vote democrat (unless Mark Cuban got the nomination - then I might think about it) , but I and many others like me might just decide to sit it out. Too early to know what's going to happen two years down the line.
Marc Cuban is actually a republican lol. He's one of those "never trump" types... if he ran... he would run as a republican.

Yeah too early for sure... but I hope Trump wakes up. He can flip things around like Bill Clinton did in 95/96... he just needs to work hard
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