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Old 05-23-2019, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
14,831 posts, read 7,454,932 times
Reputation: 8966

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I think Trump is toast in 2020.

I don't think it has anything to do with Russia or obstruction or impeachment efforts.

3 words.

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Those are the states that won Trump the WH. Those states have historically voted D. They are not conservative strongholds. I feel like in 2016 Trump barely eeked out a win in those states which relied heavily on moderates many of whom only took a chance on him because they hated Clinton more.

Trump's governing style has been to appeal to ONLY the conservative base in places like West Virginia or Alabama. He has never tried to be the president of everyone and doesn't care what moderates think, he only wants to hear the screaming adulation of his far right base, so that's all he focuses on.

I don't think that has appealed much to the voters in these 3 states who just put him over the edge. I think there are lot of people that he has turned off in those states, but would come home to the D party for a sane center-left choice like Biden.
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Old 05-23-2019, 02:04 PM
 
14,488 posts, read 6,131,639 times
Reputation: 6842
How has he not appealed to them?
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Old 05-23-2019, 02:45 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
14,831 posts, read 7,454,932 times
Reputation: 8966
Quote:
Originally Posted by dashrendar4454 View Post
How has he not appealed to them?
He sold them a lie that his election would change things on the ground for those that have been left behind by economic changes.

The fact that it didn't isn't out of step with classical GOP positions though. They've always been more about the bootstraps.
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Old 05-23-2019, 08:42 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,206 posts, read 2,252,657 times
Reputation: 4301
Presidential elections are not just a referendum on the incumbent running for a second term. They are about choices, and realistically, a choice between just two options - and Trump is very effective at demonizing the opposition. Ultimately he will receive votes from a significant number of people who don't condone his conduct or his party's policies, but are convinced the Democratic nominee is unacceptable.

Will that be enough votes for him to win re-election? Hard to say, but incumbents don't usually lose when the economy is relatively strong and the nation isn't mired in unpopular wars. Trump will stop at nothing to win and high turnout from his base certainly is going to get him pretty close given how they are distributed geographically.
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Old 05-23-2019, 10:16 PM
 
Location: Houston
3,163 posts, read 1,739,859 times
Reputation: 2645
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude View Post
I think Trump is toast in 2020.

I don't think it has anything to do with Russia or obstruction or impeachment efforts.

3 words.

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Those are the states that won Trump the WH. Those states have historically voted D. They are not conservative strongholds. I feel like in 2016 Trump barely eeked out a win in those states which relied heavily on moderates many of whom only took a chance on him because they hated Clinton more.

Trump's governing style has been to appeal to ONLY the conservative base in places like West Virginia or Alabama. He has never tried to be the president of everyone and doesn't care what moderates think, he only wants to hear the screaming adulation of his far right base, so that's all he focuses on.

I don't think that has appealed much to the voters in these 3 states who just put him over the edge. I think there are lot of people that he has turned off in those states, but would come home to the D party for a sane center-left choice like Biden.
Clinton also was too stupid and completely ignored any politicking in those states. The new Dem nominee won’t take those states for granted.
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Old 05-24-2019, 08:20 AM
 
Location: North Dakota
114 posts, read 91,347 times
Reputation: 81
I think he will win Independents as well if economy holds. Dems dont have a candidate that can beat him. I dont see another politician taking him out.
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Old 05-24-2019, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,590 posts, read 14,714,670 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by ming01 View Post
I think he will win Independents as well if economy holds. Dems dont have a candidate that can beat him. I dont see another politician taking him out.
Sanders can beat tRump, even Ben Shapiro (who hates Sanders) admits that
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Old 05-24-2019, 01:29 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,726 posts, read 17,490,788 times
Reputation: 37551
Quote:
Why Trump's strategy of only supporting his base could cost him reelection
That's dumb.
What came first, "His Base" or Trump? Low information Left babbles on about "His Base" as if it described something. But it doesn't. Trump got over 60M votes and there were many different reasons for voting for him.
Now there are many have different reasons for supporting him.

"His Base"....
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Old 05-24-2019, 01:34 PM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,590 posts, read 14,714,670 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
That's dumb.
What came first, "His Base" or Trump? Low information Left babbles on about "His Base" as if it described something. But it doesn't. Trump got over 60M votes and there were many different reasons for voting for him.
Now there are many have different reasons for supporting him.

"His Base"....
Only among the far right, there aren't to moderates or the left
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Old 05-24-2019, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Upstate NY 🇺🇸
36,753 posts, read 14,904,639 times
Reputation: 35592
Quote:
Originally Posted by atltechdude View Post
I think Trump is toast in 2020.

I don't think it has anything to do with Russia or obstruction or impeachment efforts.

3 words.

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan

Those are the states that won Trump the WH. Those states have historically voted D. They are not conservative strongholds. I feel like in 2016 Trump barely eeked out a win in those states which relied heavily on moderates many of whom only took a chance on him because they hated Clinton more.

Trump's governing style has been to appeal to ONLY the conservative base in places like West Virginia or Alabama. He has never tried to be the president of everyone and doesn't care what moderates think, he only wants to hear the screaming adulation of his far right base, so that's all he focuses on.

I don't think that has appealed much to the voters in these 3 states who just put him over the edge. I think there are lot of people that he has turned off in those states, but would come home to the D party for a sane center-left choice like Biden.

Biden is sane?
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